Severe Weather Update - 2AM THURSDAY

Squall line moving through northern Ohio...but weakening.

Biggest threat will be high winds between 2 and 4AM. Other threat from 2AM until 6AM will be local heavy rainfall between 1 and 2 inches. Flash flooding possible in low lying areas.

Severe thunder storm watch for most of northern and eastern Ohio until 6AM

Severe Weather Update - 5PM

So far, the showers have been scattered with no storms as of yet. This jives with what our forecast was this morning--that is, highlighting the scattered nature of the rain through the early evening then focusing on the main threat which would build mid evening and especially overnight (after midnight).

CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST CURRENT RADAR LOOP

We are still in a slight to moderate risk for severe weather later this evening. The last time any part of Ohio was under a high risk was in October of 2010. Needless to say, it rarely happens in these parts.

This was my summary from earlier this morning. It still holds true:   

1)  Scattered storms this afternoon. Coverage will be 50% with breaks of sun in between. 

EVENING OUTLOOK

2)  Large cluster of heavy rain and storms will develop by mid evening to the west and over most of Ohio after midnight/early Thursday. Here is the current radar loop as of 5PM. I'm already noticing the beginnings of a LARGE COMPLEX IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 

WE NEED TO WATCH THIS!

CLICK HERE FOR THE REFRESHED LOOP

3)  Severe weather threat will be from high winds (50+ mph) and hail. Gusty winds will continue into Thursday AFTER the rain moves out

4) Tonight's rainfall will exceed 1-2" in many areas. Flood Watch for all of northern Ohio for tonight and early Thursday

Today/Tonight's Severe Weather Update

As of 8AM Wednesday morning, a few showers have made it into northwestern Ohio. Most of this rain is outrunning the energy associated with the large scale cluster now developing in the upper midwest.

CURRENT RADAR LOOP IS HERE

The Storm Prediction Center still has western Ohio under a MODERATE risk of severe weather. Remember that the definition of a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM is a storm that has 58 mph winds or greater and/or hail of at least 1 INCH in diameter. 

* Moderate risk for western Ohio *

Wind damage will be the biggest threat along with heavy rain tonight

Any showers and storms that develop ahead of the main cluster this afternoon will be more scattered. Not everyone will see rain and storms this afternoon and early evening. That said, we will need to keep a careful eye on this. Often times, these scattered, fast-moving storms in the late afternoon can rapidly develop into organized clusters by themselves. In fact, one computer projection is showing just that but not until the mid evening.
 

The last complex of rain and storms overnight will be heavy. Rainfall will be significant. Winds will be pushing 30+ mph in spots.

Courtesy: Weatherbell Analytics

To summarize:   

1)  Scattered storms this afternoon. Coverage will be 50% with breaks of sun in between. 
2)  Large cluster of heavy rain and storms will develop by mid evening to the west and over most of Ohio after midnight/early Thursday
3)  Severe weather threat will be from high winds (50+ mph) and hail 
4) Tonight's rainfall will exceed 1-2" in many areas. Flood Watch for all of northern Ohio for tonight and early Thursday

Wednesday's Severe Threat - Derecho Perhaps?

After looking at the severe weather parameters along with the SPC's severe weather outlook for tomorrow, the threat for severe storms later tomorrow and into the evening is more than just a passing thought for northern Indiana and most of Ohio.

The storms will occur in large clusters moving from west to southeast along the front where the best convergence will develop.

WSI's RPM model in its future reflectivity output illustrates what the radar might look like tomorrow late afternoon/early evening

If you recall, last year around this time, a Derecho developed along the same latitude that storms will fire up late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Due to their uncertain and progressive nature driven by changes in the storm clusters magnified on the larger scale, the position and direction of derechos are difficult to forecast.

Here was the SPC severe risk area last year before the Derecho ON THE LEFT versus tomorrow risk area.

 What is tomorrow's bottom line?  If these storms track through northern Ohio, anticipate wind gusts of 50+ mph with rainfall amounts between 1 and 2" in local areas. Anticipate sunshine between these storm clusters. Power outages are also a reality.

Muckleheads from Lake Erie Are Invading!

"Muckleheads" are insects that hatch from Lake Erie in the late spring each year and push inland. They don't bite; they are just an annoyance. I wrote about them a few years ago. Here is the link.

Some video I took this morning of the coating of bugs on the front of the station


This morning, they invaded the front yard!

FOX8 Front yard with bugs on the wall

I won't be calling for help. The muckleheads are invading the intercom!

I can't turn the lights off...

I can't text or email anyone. The muckleheads have hijacked the wi-fi

So what is a weather guy to do? Absolutely nothing but pick the bugs out of one's teeth :)

The Impatience of Blog Readers

http://procrastinatingwritersblog.com

I ran across this great article on the behavior of the readers of blogs. After reading this--the entire article--it got me thinking that this occurs many times as people read my blog for reasons that I will write about later.
This article on Slate shows that most of blog readers rarely have the patience to read an entire piece yet they will share the article on Facebook or on Twitter. In keeping with the findings that are illustrated in this article (which states that a good percentage of you won't scroll down to read beyond the first page of an article) I will bullet-point what the article summerized:

"Only a small number of you are reading all the way through articles on the Web...many smart-alecks jump in to the comments to make points that get mentioned later in the piece."

""Of the 100 of you who didn’t bounce (click away from the article), five are never going to scroll. Bye!..."  Some sites have a higher share of people—10 percent—that never scroll."

"Chartbeat’s data shows that most readers scroll to about the 50 percent mark, or the 1,000th pixel, in Slate stories..."




Are you one of these reader who comment on articles without reading them entirely? Hmmmm....