First Snow Last Week. How About Thanksgiving Forecast and Beyond?

The first snow of the season occurred last week then quickly melted. 

How about Thanksgiving?  Back on November 11, I sent this text out to our weather department:

"...MJO is increasing in amplitude into phase 6,7 and 8. Pressure between Darwin station and Northern Australia (SOI) has just taken a significant drop a few days ago. Both of these strongly suggest that we will have a pretty significant warm-up the week of Thanksgiving...probably a few days well up into the '60s. Middle of the country could see some severe weather. Deep trough develops Central us and eventually migrates East. Potentially cold enough for some snow this Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving but more so the first week and a half of December. That should feature below normal temperatures, a couple of clipper systems and multiple rounds of lake effect."

SOI analog during a neutral ENSO shows the trough on day 22 after the drop.

SOI analog during La Nina snows a weak ridge with flanking trough on day 21 following SOI drop.

This is the graphic I started showing on November 12 for the week of Thanksgiving/first week of December and continued to show this week (Nov 17th).

All of this analysis was done outside long before the long range models had Thanksgiving and beyond in their solutions. 

Now, on November 17, the long range models are showing the huge west-to-east temperature difference Thanksgiving week:

Notice how the warmth doesn't last long.  Notice the ridge over Alaska (red) and the following trough (blue) in the central US.

Temperature forecast from the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through November 30th.

Do I think this colder pattern early December last long?  Its looking more transient with some moderation around mid-month. Eventually the colder pattern will re-establish itself longer term after the New Year!