Monday, February 28, 2011

Flooding Concern - Next Two Days

If you joined us on the morning show last Thursday and Friday after the huge snowstorm, I mentioned the prospects of flooding this week

This is one of the times that I wish I was wrong in my forecast.  The snow began to melt (12" in less than 24 hours) Saturday and Sunday as temps went into the 40s.  Now, the front has pushed through as of mid-morning Monday with more than 1-2" of rain.  Now the flooding concerns have become a reality.  Flood warnings for entire area.

The radar looked something like this earlier this morning.

The lightning strikes were widespread. More than 6000 in one hour at its peak.

Drier weather ahead the rest of the week.  Maybe some rain late Friday into Saturday.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

BIG SNOW for Friday, February 25th

After the snow early this week, its understandable if people start to question our snowfall predictions. I heard it from friends and family alike:  "What happened to that 1-3 inches you talked about this morning?"  I can feel it even now. A blanket of "forecasting cynicism" hangs over the area like a thick layer of fog.

Honestly, I understand why everyone reacted this way.  The snow hit right before rush hour.  Viewers were mad.  Kids were mad.  Everyone was mad, testy and probably hungry after a 3 hour ordeal in the car, stalled in traffic with no end in sight.  If I wasn't working, I probably would have had a few choice words too.

But not to worry.  Another major winter storm is heading this way.  In an effort to be vindicated from my latest forecasting mishap, (my dad called it a debacle"), I am here to present ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS relating to this upcoming blast of late season winter slop.

Three different computer simulations are cranking three different snowfall projections. The last map is our consensus. Hopefully it works out...

Excuse my sarcasm...:)

Thursday, February 10, 2011

A Look at THIS WINTER in CLEVELAND so far...

Normally when I am greeting by someone when I'm out and about, they, more often than not, express their opinions about the morning show.  Recently, a common salutation of " you every morning" has been replaced with: "This has to be the coldest winter in AGES!"

So I went back to work, checked the temperature and snowfall numbers and here is what I found:

 First, out seasonal snow through February 10th.  Notice that this year, the totals are not all that high compared to the normal (average over the last 30 years)

The average temperatures didn't even make the TOP 10 coldest.
Thanks goes to the NWS in Cleveland

While the average temperatures were not close to record setting, we did have consistantly COLD temperatures BELOW FREEZING.  Here are the number of days below freezing compared to the last 5 winters through February 10th.  TWICE AS MANY days below freezing this winter compared to last winter

What about days with SNOW ON THE GROUND?  This year is very close to last winter with SNOW ON GROUND days.  Overall, the numbers are inching up each year over the last 4 winters. 

The amount of snow or the overall temperatures haven't been the story as much as the CONSISTENT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

Friday, February 04, 2011


Let me know if I missed something...

Cleveland January Temps - 2010 vs 2011 vs 1977

US January 2011
Global - January 2011 Surface Temp Anomolies

Arctic - January 2011 Surface Temp Anomolies