Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Will Early December Give Us More Milder Days?

This recent movie of the European Long Range forecast model tells the story into the first week of December as to why we are still going to feel colder temperatures. Notice the wave-like nature of the winds aloft in the video below. This would allow some milder days with a trend to colder temps into the heart of December. The stronger/flatter these troughs in the wind aloft in the middle/eastern half of the US, the longer the colder periods. We didn't have this type of aggressive troughiness in the east last year.

...something to watch as it develops!

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Will We See the Lunar Eclipse in Northern Ohio?

The short answer is probably not. The long answer is...maybe, depending on where you are.

This eclipse is a bit different than other eclipses because of the position of the moon in relation to the shadow of the earth. This eclipse called a "Penumbra Eclipse" because the moon enters the Penumbra area of the Earth's shadow. The Penumbra is a region of the shadow that is not completely obsured from the rays of the sun. This lighter shadow is a result of the relative size of the Sun to the Earth. 

Due to the path of the moon around the earth, the best place to view this lunar eclipse will be in Asia and in western North America.  In northern Ohio, the eclipse will occur when the moon is almost below the horizon (one degree above) and only for a few minutes. Unless you live on a hilltop away from trees along the horizon, the chances of seeing it will be remote. The times for viewing in Cleveland are below.

December 21, 2010 was the last time we had a total lunar eclipse visible in northern Ohio. The next penumbral lunar eclipse will be next May the 25th.

The next Total Lunar Eclipse (moon passes directly into the earth's shadow) for northern Ohio will be APRIL 15, 2014. Good luck!

Friday, November 23, 2012

First Lake Effect Event Tonight & Saturday

Our first lake event of the 2012-13 winter season will commence tonight and Saturday. As much as we want lake effect forecast to be more cut and dry, each event is far from it due to the many factors that influence where and how much falls:

* Wind Direction
* Wind Speed (10-20 mph is preferrable)
* Temperature difference between the lake and the air about 5000 feet above the lake* Moisture content from the surface to 10,000 feet
* Elevation Changes
* Depth of the cold air

Most of these components will be present tonight and Saturday. The higher wind speeds (gusts to 35 mph) will reduce the amount of evaporation over the lake and probably the accumulations somewhat. Even with these gusty winds, we will still see some shovelable snow.


Wednesday, November 21, 2012


A few Facebook comments today asked what the latest first snowfall was in Cleveland?

1948-49  DEC 10TH
1985-86  DEC 2ND
1990-91  DEC 3RD
1994-95  DEC 10TH
2010-11  DEC 1ST

You can include these winters too:


The daily snowfall records are a little hard to come by prior to the mid 1940s. Digging a little deeper, I found that the 1923-24 winter HAD NO SNOW UNTIL JANUARY!

The high temperature on January 1, 1924 was 28. We had 0.07" of precipitation. A strong cold front came through early January 1st. Here are the surface maps for Dec 31st and Jan 1st:

The temperatures behind the front were DEFINITELY cold enough for lake effect snow given the strong NW wind.

So the latest we EVER had measurable snowfall in Cleveland was more than likely JANUARY 1ST during the WINTER OF 1923-24!

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

COLDER Pattern shift ahead. Clipper Snow!

The pattern is starting to evolve into a colder one next week.

November has been running almost 5 degrees below average (3rd month in a row) even after this past weekend where the image of neighbors hanging Christmas decorations on their roof will forever be embedded in my mind. Full disclosure, I was on the roof staple gunning icicle lights too.

Remember The Greenland Block that drove Hurricane Sandy inland? That was providing us with some foreshadowing on the pattern that seems to be evolving late next week. That same Greenland Block is once again, establishing itself which will more than likely lead to below normal temperatures for Ohio.

For more evidence showing that last year's "not so cold and snowy" winter probably won't occur early this year, look at the pattern in early December from last year. Notice how the colder air wasn't even close to the US. The ridge of high pressure kept Alberta Clipper snows from developing. November was one of the warmest on record! Compare the map on the left to the one to its right. That is the forecast for late next week. Weak ridge in the middle of the country, stronger trough should equate to COLDER AIR for northern Ohio and MAYBE our first ALBERTA CLIPPER SNOW of the season!

Friday, November 16, 2012

November Snowfall: 1970s vs Present

Cleveland Plain Dealer - Shoreway Near East 55th
Those late 70s winter were brutal. I remember driving to Fairview Park Hospital for the birth of my sister in 1978 in my dad's 1977 Buick on the Ohio Turnpike. The snow was unlike anything I had EVER seen. The winds were unbearable. It was the poster child of a typical winter back in the late 1970s in northern Ohio.

After last winter, our perceptions have become twisted. We hadn't had a winter with little snow (38.5"; 62" is the average) and mild temperatures like 2011-2012 in a while. Using the National Climate Data Center temperature data for all of northeastern Ohio, the December-February period in the winters of 2001-02, 1997-98 (El Nino), 1982-83 (El Nino), 1948-49 & 1931-32 were the only winters milder than last.

So when I show an 8day forecast that features temperatures trending slooowly back to normal or slightly above into Thanksgiving week, we immediately think of last winter. We remember how lackluster the snow was. We try to paint a similar picture now since we've had little to no snow this month. I bet if I surveyed 1000 people on the street, most would say that this winter will be similar to last winter. The RECENCY EFFECT (our instinctive ability of placing too much significance on more recent experiences or events) is a very powerful cognitive bias.

How about those 1970s snowfalls specifically in November. Were they extraordinary? Here are the November snowtotals from 1975 to 1983. Surprisingly, nothing out of the ordinary.

What about the DECEMBER and JANUARY snowtotals that followed compared to our last 9 winters? It seems that DECEMBER-JANUARY snow totals since 2004 have outpaced the same months in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

What should we take from the numbers? NEVER fall victim to thinking that a snowless November will always lead to a winter will less than normal snowfall. It happens of course. It happened last year. It didn't happen during the 2004-05 season which ended up as the SNOWIEST WINTER EVER!

It didn't happen in the 1970s and it probably won't happen this year. Next post, I'll take a look at the temperatures for the same period.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

What Are The Teleconnections Telling Us?

We Didn't See Much of This Last Winter
I don't want to harp too much about the connections between the oceans and atmosphere and their influence on our long range outlooks. As I mentioned earlier in the week, teleconnections like El Nino or La Nina or the North Atlantic Oscillation, which has received alot of media attention since Hurricane Sandy rarely provide a straight forword, hard-and-fast forecast commandment to follow. If they did, long range outlooks would be as easy as looking out the window and saying whether it was sunny or cloudy.

Last winter gave us a great laboratory environment by which to view the atmosphere, like a fly on a wall, react to several teleconnections abrupt shift to levels that feature a lack of arctic drivers. This was a wake up call for all of us after a few very cold winters in 2009 and 2010. As a scientist, it was nice to see the other end of the spectrum at work in nature. Let's look at the late 2011 teleconnection levels:

The North Atlantic Oscillation, The Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific North American Index (Click on the link here for a detailed description)

Each one is more influential on weather patterns in the winter. The more POSITIVE the NAO and AO; the more NEGATIVE the PNA, the "colder" pattern shuts down. Conversely, the more NEGATIVE the NAO and AO; the more POSITIVE the PNA, the "colder" pattern becomes stronger and stronger.

North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation/Pacific North American Index charts from late 2011. Notice the perpetual POSITIVE levels. The PNA forecast for December 2011 was barely in positive (colder) territory.

 Now compare late 2011 to late 2010 and late 2009. Notice the levels were opposite.

How are the levels currently as we approach Thanksgiving 2012? They are no where as "mild" as last year and not as "cold" as 2010 or 2009. The NAO and AO are showing signs of more frequent negative turns. Yet the PNA still shows the western ridge or warmth hasn't developed into something steady and strong which would ultimately drive a trough/colder pattern more in the east and Ohio.

I still do not think this winter will be a repeat of last winter. The index levels are reflect a pattern that features a higher frequency of colder air episodes. The wild card will be whether or not the WESTERN RIDGE strengthens and STAYS WEST. Keep an eye on the PNA INDEX. If this happens in December coincident with INCREASED SNOW COVER in CANADA along with a few other factors over the arctic and Siberia, expect more cold this winter than last.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Comparing Nov '11 to November So Far--Christmas Tree Lighting Forecast

So far so good....

The temperatures have been cooler over the last several weeks but no ultra cold air to drive lake effect snows....yet.  In fact, the stretch of cool that started Sunday October 28th and finished Thursday, November 8th was the longest stretch of temps below 50 this time of year since 1925! 

Most people fall victim to these bursts of cooler air as a harbinger of what might be lurking in the winter ahead. Yet as many amateur meteorologists on twitter remind me, and rightly so, that you can't use these short term trends or any other statistical tool as gospel in projecting future longer term winter trends. Yet by using these statistical similarities within the overall framework of the current and past atmospheric state (several days or weeks previous), patterns can be found which can lead to more accurate long term forecasts.

The most notable pattern so far this winter has been the Greenland Block which was one of the primary drivers of the Hurricane Sandy hybrid storm and the crippling Nor'easter a week later.

The North Atlantic Oscillation is a good predictor of the Greenland Block. When the NAO goes positive, the Block is less noticable. When the NAO goes negative, the Greenland Block becomes more apparent.

So far, this November, the NAO has been strongly negative. This helps drive Sandy to deepen and push inland. For comparison, FROM LAST NOVEMBER THROUGH VALENTINES DAY, THE NAO WAS NEGATIVE FOR ONLY 10 DAYS! You can see why the winter was so mild. No Greenland Block, you lose a big driver of cold air into northeastern Ohio.

The NAO seems to have rebounded a bit this past weekend. Some projections start to drive it back into negative territory.

Let's look back at last winter to see what the setup was in November just for continuity sake.

The ridge of high pressure and warmth was slowly developing over the eastern US and Ohio. By early December, the ridge was so strong that little lake effect snow took hold. Milder air across the eastern 1/3 of the US. November was the 4th warmest on record. December didn't crack the top 10 but it was close. Only 1.1 inches of snow fell in November; 7 inches in December.

What does all of this mean?

For one, I don't think the east coast ridge of high pressure will be a dominant feature this winter. It might come and go from time to time but it won't be a primary fixture. Notice the first week of November this year. 
We need to watch the behavior of the NAO for signs of blocking heading into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. This could mean some snow for New England and colder air for Ohio!

Around Christmas time, the ice/snow cover over Canada will be a tell-tail sign on the depth of the preliminary cold. If the ice/snow cover is well ahead of schedule, the reservoir of cold would be enhanced by the snow/ice cover before it pushes south.

After the New Year, the focus will shift to the Arctic and the stratosphere. The dynamics are complicated and hard to visualize but in a nutshell, if rapid warming occurs in the stratosphere over the arctic, the potential for dramatic surges of cold increases. The warming will need to be watched.

All in all, the fox8 winter weather outlook remains as is. Near normal snowfall (65 inches for Cleveland; 35 for Akron, 120+ for the snowbelt)

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

My Interview with a VERY Well Known Climate Scientist - Q and A

Another post on climate change...

Oh Lord! Here we go!  Bells are going off in your head. I can hear it.

You've already made up your mind on what this is about.  Your opinion is made. The conversation is now off of the rails with no hope of resuscitation. End of discussion.  Your done...

Please, allow me to finish.

A few months ago after reading some climate articles posted on Twitter, I tracked down the author--a well known climate scientist--on Facebook. I had read many of this individuals posts before and wanted to ask the scientist a few follow up questions.

Before I show our question and answer exchange, Remember several things about me.  1) I hate politics.  2) I love science and weather and 3) I strive to better understand the cognitive biases that govern my thinking.  In a nutshell, no politics here; all science (I do have my own personal scientific views on this subject). Yet my goal of this exercise is to present the science as objectively as possible with compelling scientific arguments filtered through a lens that washes out my own potential cognitive biases so as to promote a civilized scientific discussion. A tall order for anyone to do. Humility is tough to chew.

In an attempt to diminish any preconceived notions you might have. the scientist's identity will stay concealed. I will refer to this scientist as "Pat". Laugh if you must.


Question 1:

When we look at the length of the droughts of the 1930s, they were much longer and more severe according to the PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) data. Once again playing devils advocate, why is this year's drought different? 

Hi Scott--as I understand it, we set all time records for the % of the country (>60%) in drought this past month. By several metrics, this summer's drought exceeded what has been seen for any other single year. The issue of persistence of drought (i.e. how many years in a row a given state is in drought) is something else, that takes several years to evaluate. While the drought of the 1930s already likely had an anthropogenic component (soils were warmer, and evaporation was greater, than it would have been prior to anthropogenic warming), this year's drought likely had a much greater anthropogenic component, as many regions broke all-time temperatures that were set in the Dust Bowl years.

Question 2:

Is there a way to determine whether or not the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), AO (Arctic Oscillation), ENSO (El Nino or La Nina), etc plays more of a part in a specific weather episode (extreme warmth, etc) than AGW? Can the models do this considering that the NAO, for example, is more random in its behavior than say ENSO? Doesn't the PDO and AMO have impacts as well or are they mitigated due to the AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) signature?

Well the problem is that anthropogenic climate change may have a projection onto each of these modes, so the separation isn't clean. However, this is where the science gets considerably more uncertain, not the least of which because signal-to-noise ratios are quite a bit lower (the internal variability noise is very large). However, its probably fair to consider the distribution of weather regimes as basically stationary. i.e. we had large positive AO/NAO excursions, etc. in the past, and there is nothing clearly extraordinary about the atmospheric circulation patterns we are seeing, the only thing that appears extraordinary is both the scale and magnitude of the warmth. But I don't don't that we'll see a fair bit of attention paid to these questions over the next few months and climate scientists perform a scientific 'autopsy' on the anomalous 2012 North American summer warmth...

Question 2B:

Thank you so much. Would it be a safe assumption to say that the +++AO/NAO last winter was more a random fluctation? Is the behavior of the AO linked to arctic ice lose/gain?

Scott--that is a great question, to which I wish I knew the answer. There are theoretical arguments that have been made for a tendency for both a more positive AO/NAO and a more negative AO/NAO. The sea ice impacts are more speculative and
not currently well represented in the models, and so its hard to put too much confidence in the model projections w.r.t. this issue. But the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence, and if I were a betting man, I would suspect that sea ice melt did play
a role in the anomalous AO/NAO state last winter and *could* be a harbinger of what is to come...

Question 3:

One other question (there is always another :) Doesn't the negative PDO and the warm pool in the central Pacific drive the western trough and thus the continental ridge creating an upper level environment that is more conducive for sustained heat/Texas drought in 2011? I believe you addresses this last week in another response but is the AGW signal embedded within the overall upper level pattern? Finally, does an increase in CO2 in the oceans alter the PDO, AMO cycles. Is seems as if they are fairly consistent...Sorry, that was 3 questions :) Thanks, Scott

Scott-no question the anomalous atmospheric circulation, which in part is set up by large-scale SST patterns ("PDO" is a bit of a pet peeve--itis just an imperfect characterization of changing North Pacific SST patterns that contain both anthropogenic and natural variability contributions) has something to do with the North American drought. But without dispute, the drought has been worsened by record-breaking heat, that leads to greater loss of moisture from soil via evaporation and evapotranspiration.

Question 4:

Concerning the AMO, I have read some draw a causal relationship between the +AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and arctic ice cap growth/melting. Could the +AMO cause or enhance the rate of melting? Thanks Scott

Hey Scott. In the study discussed by Appell in the link, the AMO (a coin I actually termed--as I discuss in my book) is estimated as being responsible for at most 30% of observed melt. My guess is that its less than that--30% is just an upper-bound estimate.

Question 5:

In order for AGW to directly cause the heat waves like current one in the US, would the increase in temp need to be caused by an increasingly stronger continental ridge cause by a change in the wave pattern around the globe? In other words, is AGW causing the wave pattern to change? Is this a correct supposition?

Scott--fair question. But no, you can't explain the record-breaking warmth by atmospheric circulation alone. We've had very similar circulation anomalies in mid-summer in the past, and they didn't lead to the same level of warmth. So while anomalous circulation (i.e. an unusually pronounced ridge) is certainly contributing to the pattern of unusual warmth it is not, alone, an adequate explanation for record-breaking heat. That's the key point here...

Thanks for answering my comment. Much appreciated.

Question 6:

How does a temp increase on the global scale cause spot increases in the regional areas (i.e. Central US)? Are there other intermediate steps that have to occur in the atmosphere (cause and effect) in order for these heat waves to happen? How can I use atmospheric physics to describe what is happening (AGW = regional heat waves) Thanks for your time!

Sure thing Scott, happy to do so. In short, the warming is not uniform in space or time, there is much variability and much noise. In any given year, ENSO, the NAO, and other factors will make certain places warmer than they otherwise would have been, and other places colder. But over time nearly everyplace warms up, and the pattern of warming from greenhouse gases isn't uniform. You get more warming over continental interiors and more warming in the Arctic owing to ice-related feedback mechanisms (both are actually evident in the pattern we've seen this year).

There is a great animation based on the NCAR CCM climate model projections that shows all of this very nicely (sorry its about 37 MB):

Question 7:

How much CO2 is absorbed into the oceans?

Thus far about 30% of CO2 appears to have been taken up by the ocean, and about 15% by the terrestrial biosphere, so that the "airborn" fraction, i.e. the CO2 that is remaining in the atmosphere is about half of what we've emitted. One of the worries is that these carbon "sinks" become saturated and the CO2 begins to build up even faster.

Question 7A:

Does an increase in CO2 in the oceans change the thermocline circulation over time? Thanks again...Scott

I don't know of any direct influence on the CO2 itself, per se, on the thermohaline circulation, but the *warming* is predicted to influence the circulation (e.g. through the freshening of the upper ocean due to high-latitude melting ice).

Question 7B:
Are these carbon sinks re-radiated back into the atmosphere or do they stay in the ocean? If so, at what rate?  

The carbon sinks can eventually lose their ability to take up carbon, in which case they might even become sources--and in that sense, yes they can actually even lose some of the previously stored carbon to the atmosphere. there is one of the concerns, for example, of the melting of the permafrost and potential release of methane that had been stored there for many thousands of years.

 Question 7C:

Why are surface temps used to measure global temps and not satellite UAH numbers?

Both are used, but satellite temps are an integrated measure of lower atmosphere not surface. And unfortunately, UAH record has been compromised by so many errors over the years (sign error and algebraic error that led to an incorrect conclusion regarding the *sign* of the warming trend---I discuss this in my book) that nobody uses it. There are other estimates (e.g. RSS) based on same satellite data (now that UAH finally released a few years ago), and these reaffirm the surface record indicating that surface and lower atmosphere both warming. The instrumental record is of course much longer, and hence more useful for assessing long-term trends...

Monday, November 05, 2012

Sick of Politics? Need To Vent? This is the Place To Do It!

Earlier today, I placed a moratorium on political opinions on my Facebook Fanpage. I directed people to comment only objectively about facts, data and, if they chose, the psychology of political ads. Here was my initial post:

"I'm venting here. Why is it that when anyone writes the name of a candidate for President on a post IN ANY CONTEXT, people think that the post is designed to elicit a political response. I realize that we are 24 hours from Election Day and we are all fired up about what we believe. Frankly, you're political beliefs are your own. I personally deal in analysis, data and try to remove myself from the politics. Remember, we all have cognitive biases which unfortunately surface with an accelerated vigor during an election year that make us react impulsively to words like "Obama" and "Romney". So if I write an update tomorrow that shows the Electoral College count, note that it is not an endorsement of a candidate but a look at the numbers. Nothing more. Nothing less. Sigh. Time for a snack."
I continued sometime later with this...
I like to analyze the psychology of campaign ads. They only give you the pieces of information that are just enough to validate their claim on a specific topic and, at the same time, that information is pushed into your psyche at that fundamental level which forces your cognitive bias to win over your rational, objective side. These ads cater to your political leanings by weighting the argument to fit your preconceived notions therefore cementing your decision through repetition on tv. This happens over time. They focus on words like: China, Taxes, Government, Stimulus, Corporations, Middle Class, Wealthy, The Rich, etc. I bet if we looked up political ads from 30 years ago, they probably aren't much different.
After a hour or two, several people started to go down the "comment road" that I frowned upon earlier. Namely, the road which is riddled with political opinions.
JOHN:  I don't endorse anyone, go Romney. Just saying
then Mary said
MARY: "lol ok if John can endorse Romney.. I'm just saying.. lets go with the right choice.. Obama.... 4 more years..... lets give him time to finish what he started... forward... not backward..."
So I responded with....
John and Mary, here we go. This is how comment threats deteriorate. I can feel this going down a road a political road that can only lead to negativity. See my blog post on comment threads
Then it hit me I'm going about this all wrong. On the eve of the election, people are at their wit's end. We are sick and tired of the same old commercials. We are sick of the coverage. We are so sick and tired that most have become apathetic. Our everyday existence has been plowed over with political rhetoric. We are an overly stimulated society The general populous has become recalcitrant. We simply don't care anymore and we want this display of one-upsmanship to end. Our torpid minds need a bleeder valve. Something to take the pressure off of the relentless pounding we've taken for 18+ months. My Facebook Fanpage is that bleeder value. Head on over to it and voice your displeasure, your political opinions, your disdain, your frustration, your dislike for the weather, your apathy for the long as its clean. This offer will only be extended until midnight tonight.

So have at it. Let the catharsis begin.

Friday, November 02, 2012

Climate Change & Hurricane/Hybrid Sandy: You Decide

I've debated on whether or not I should weigh in on the Hurricane Sandy/Climate Change/Global Warming debate circling the blog sphere.  Even saying the words "debate" in the context of Global Warming or Climate Change is tantamount to treason and a reason to fight for some. Others would argue that I've left the AGW door wide open for a huge ransack.

So rather than take a stance either way, I want to list the components that went into the development of this storm in no particular order and leave it to you to allocate what percentage of influence each component contributed to the evolution of Hurricane Sandy and the subsequent hybrid.  Is it the natural cycles or the Anthropogenic drivers or a blend of both?  One more than the other,etc.

1. Strong sub tropical jet stream along the east coast moving southwest to northeast

2. Very strong polar jet merging with the sub tropical jet

3. Greenland Block (High pressure over the North Atlantic/southern Greenland)

4. Upper level trough became negatively tilted (that is the trough was oriented NW to SE) established by the Greenland Block

5. Sea Level increase along the east coast

6. Warmer Atlantic Ocean overall - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation cycle

7. Above normal water temperatures in the Atlantic right off of the east coast

8. Arctic Ice Loss

Am I missing any?

Your thoughts.....

Thursday, November 01, 2012

Cognitive Biases: Political Ads Feed Them BIG TIME!

One of the hardest things to do is challenge your preconceived notions about any topic. Science, religion, economics...anything, especially politics this time of year.

Our brains are wired a certain way and when facts get in the way of that wiring, it tries to convince itself it isn’t wrong, even when it is. We want to be right; our brain tries to convince us that we are right. We feel conflicted.  We hate randomness. We want order. We rebel. We get emotional. We react impulsively.  All hope for rational thinking fades fast.

Mark Dow's excellent blog post lists 4 of these cognitive biases. How many of these have you succumbed to recently when talking about yourself, science, climate change, politics, foreign policy, the economy, etc?

1.       We overestimate our abilities, our uniqueness, and our objectivity, even more so when under emotional strain. We have all seen the studies: 90% of people say they are above average drivers. Rarely do people think those around them work harder or better than they do. And so on…

2.       We systematically understate the role of ‘random’. We crave order, and we are willing to torture the facts to get there. But sometime things just happen, and sometimes problems don’t have solutions. No fundamental cause, no guilty party, no concrete answers. Moreover, on the up side, when random does break our way it’s appropriated as skill.

3.       People will find a way to believe what they are intended to believe. As the saying goes, “The most dangerous place to stand is in between someone and what they want to believe”. In my experience, it’s hard to overestimate the power of this statement. Starting with the conclusion and reverse-engineering the supporting arguments is central to the human condition and, surprisingly, serves and important role in our evolution.

4.       When presented with points 1, 2, and 3, almost everyone recognizes their validity, but believes at some level that he/she is exempt. The typical reaction is “Yeah, for sure, of course that’s how [other] people act”. It is always easier to see others’ mistakes than one’s own. And this is one of the reasons we have a very hard time changing our cognitive biases. All of us.

All of the political advertisements are geared toward a specific group by catering to that group's cognitiv bias!

What do politicians say ALL OF THE TIME? Mark Dow explains....

1.       I feel your pain. Politicians need to connect, to empathize convincingly. Or, to paraphrase George Bernard Shaw, they need to be able to fake sincerity.

2.       You deserve more than you are getting, and it is not your fault.

3.       I’m gonna get the bastards who are keeping you down.

Just some interesting thoughts as I read articles on the topics of the day this morning...

What biases do you have? Are they strong? Have you challenged you biases as much as it might not feel right?