Let's add BLUE circles to indicate years below normal.
How about the number of days with ABOVE NORMAL high temperatures?
Last year we had more than average. Yet from 2013-2015 above normal high temperatures in July were way down.
Bottom line: July isn't always consistently hot historically like many of us believe.
So what is July 2020 looking like?
The position of the ridge of high pressure in the central US will dictate how hot we get in the Ohio Valley. This animation shows the ridge expanding after July 8th.
We'll be on the eastern edge of this heat ridge. This will more than likely allow some NW to SE moving storms to develop early next week and again mid-month...
Analog composites show this too. Something to watch.
Bottom line July Outlook:
Temperatures: Above normal (25 of the 31 days above normal)
Rainfall: Well below normal