The Oil Spill Over Cleveland

I ran into this handy tool which allows you to superimpose the oil spill over any location using google maps.

Credit    http://www.beowulfe.com/oil/   for developing this mashup.  Just type in the location or zip code!

                                   

Guatamalan Sinkhole...Again!

Yet another sinkhole has formed in Guatamala.  This image looks Photoshopped but its real.

The depth of this hole is still unknown.  

Guatamala is not unfamiliar with sinkholes.  Back in February of 2007, an underground sewage flow from a ruptured main dissolving the rock below it.  That sinkhole was 330 feet deep pictured below.

Niles, Newton Falls Tornado of 1985

It was 25 year ago back on May 31,  1985. A tornado outbreak occurred in northeastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and New York and portions of Canada. The most intense tornado touched down near the Ravenna Arsenal in Portage County and continued on the ground for almost 50 miles.  It devasted Niles, Newton Falls, Hubbard, killed dozens of people and continued into Pennsylvania.

This tornado was an EF-5, the strongest of all tornadoes with winds of more than 300 mph and a width of a mile and a half.  This was the last EF-5 tornado to hit Ohio and the first since the Xenia tornado outbreak back in 1974.

Thunderstorms began to develop in the late afternoon east of Cleveland as the temperatures rose into the middle 80s.  The upper levels of the atmosphere were ripe with energy. For anoutbreak of severe weather to occur, you need a "dry slot" in the middle of the atmosphere.

This allows the super-humid to "rise" into air that isn't saturated.  If the air in the middle of the atmosphere wasn't dry, storms couldn't have risen and blossomed into severe storms.  In this case, the air was dry all of the way out to Missouri.

The storms didn't look that impressive from space.

By midnight that night, 21 tornadoes had touched town in Northeast Ohio along along with the only F5 tornado (the strongest) in the Unite States.

Here are some great links showing more specifics on the tornado outbreak.  Special thanks to the NWS in Cleveland for the meteorology of that day and these additional sites for their photos and commentary.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/office/localinterest/1985Tornado/storm_data.pdf

http://www.angelfire.com/pa/pawx/053185.html

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05149/511826.stm

Why the Increase in Hurricanes this year?

If you are making a trip to the east coast from Myrtle Beach to the Outer Banks to Hilton Head down to Miami, pay attention to the tropical forecast this summer and fall as tropical storms will be a plenty.

Click here for the FULL HURRICANE OUTLOOK

Why is season going to be so active?  Here is a technical/sciency peek into how the experts come up with their HURRICANE FORECASTS:

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The first factor is whether an EL NINO or LA NINA is present.  Remember that EL NINO/LA NINAs are changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.  These changes alter the position and direction of the jet stream in the atmosphere either BREAKING APART tropical systems of allowing them to BUILD INTO HURRICANES.

Last year, EL NINO BROKE APART THE STORMS.

This year without EL NINO, and with LA NINA rapidly developing, the sheer is weak so the environment is very strong for TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. Storms are steered right into the Caribbean.

The next factor is the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean.  For the last several months, the Atlantic SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES have been at levels not seen in decades.  Remember last winter's cold spells?  That same arctic pattern responsible for our winter cold drove the Bermuda High south allowing the ocean to heat up to near record levels.  The red shades on the map below show the warmer than normal water in the central Atlantic. 

One other factor that will be present in hurricane forecasts for years to come has to do with a decadal cycle of high and low hurricane frequency.  The ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION or the AMO is a cyclical pattern of sea surface temperature completing a cold/warm/back to cold cycle every 70 years or so.  Since 1995, we have been in a warm cycle.  Here is the cycles since 1860.

There are also US LANDFALL HURRICANE TRENDS that correlate to the AMO. Check these out below.  The left image is a reflection of the current WARM CYCLE.  We can expect more US landfall hurricanes in a WARM AMO cycle which will more than likely continue for the next 20 years.

Factor in a turbulent and strong LOOP CURRENT shown here...

which has a history of rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Katrina and Rita in 2005...

 and you get this year's ABOVE NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON.

Hurricane Season Outlook 2010 - National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center - Hurricane Outlook Press Release

As indicated earlier this year, the National Hurricane Center as well as other experts have been hinted at an above normal hurricane season which starts June 1st.

Here are the bullet points of the NHC's seasonal outlook with some analysis:

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

    * 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
    * 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
    * 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The factors that support the outlook are:

    *  Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.

    * Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.

    * High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

Click here for the ENTIRE OUTLOOK.

Muckelhead Photo from Cleveland

This was a photo taken outside the WJW FOX 8 studios in May of 2009. That "shadow" looking thing on the ground is actually a pile of Muckelheads.

Now imagine that the pile is thousands of these...(image credit: flickr "kuddlyteddybear2004")

Our First Tropical Storm Already?

...Its a good possibility. 

Last week, a pocket of tropical moisture began to develop into an organized area of low pressure.  Although not unusual to have tropical systems this time of year, to have one develop in this area of the Atlantic Ocean is somewhat rare due to the relatively cool ocean water temperatures.

The moisture in the Atlantic was incredible this past weekend.  Notice the warmer colors in the middle of this image showing tropical moisture.

Here is the satellite picture showing the system.

Lots of dry air pushing into the backend of this system which could weaken it later this week.

Computer model projections keep it stationery.

While this "tropical pocket of moisture" probably won't gather enough steam to turn into a full fledged tropical storm, we are expecting a very active tropical storm season with several landfalling hurricanes or tropical storms along the US coast.  More on tha tlater.

Unbelievable Picture of the Shuttle/ISS and the Sun

Credit:  http://www.astrophoto.fr/

30th anniversary of Mt. St. Helens Eruption

The Mount St. Helens volcanic eruption is the most famous volcanic eruptions in US history.  The eruption and ensuing pyroclastic flow killed 57 people and dropped the elevation of the summit more than 1300 feet.  The amount of ash debris was almost 1 cubic mile in volume.  Imagine a box a mile on each side?  That's alot of material.  A look at Mount St. Helens before the eruptions.

What about the phrase "pyroclastic flow".  What does this mean?  It is term describing the flow of hot gas and collective material from the volcano that flows down the side of the mountain.  It can reach speeds of 450 miles per hour and temperatures of close to 2000 degrees and has been know to cross bodies of water for miles.  Its these pyroclastic flows that cause the majority of the damage in volcanic eruptions.  A look a year after the eruption.  Notice the crater in the middle.

A satellite timelapse over the last 30 years showing the evolution of the mountain since the eruption.

Amazing Hail Storm Video

Credit:  National Weather Service, Norman, Oklahoma for analysis and photo