Still sticking to my "7 days above 90" prediction

Many people have come up to me and said, "So. What happened to that forecast of '7 days at 90 or better this summer' you predicted"?

My answer, "The summer is still young."  And yes, I'm still sticking to my initial prediction. Cooler air is coming...

So far as of June 8th, we've had 3 days at 90 or better.  Alot of this heat is due to two main factors:  Decreased soil moisture which reduces the amount of evaporation (which is a cooling process) and high pressure aloft which steers warmth north.

Look at the flow last month (May)

Now compared it to the last two weeks. Ridging aloft with steering winds out of the south

Now the soil moisture in May...red indicates high soil moisture

Now for June through the 5th:  Notice the reds are replaced with yellow shades indicating drying across the eastern 1/2 of the US.

The combination of all of the extended forecasts in this next animation shows no significant "southerly flow" like the second map on the page. It illustrates a west to east flow with periods slight warmth with NO BIG HOT PERIODS at least through the 22nd of June.  This also means more quick-moving fronts with better chances of rain/storms.  If it doesn't animate, click on THIS LINK

Even NEW extended models which take into account the interaction between the ocean cycles and general atmospheric conditions around the earth show a "cooler than normal" pattern for July and August. Normal high in July is 82.  So this would predict  a better chance at upper 70s versus upper 80s.

A dry June and the start of hurricane season

Just when out weather is starting to dry out after more than 14 inches or rain since April 1st, the start of hurricane season is now taking center stage with the talk of an above year for tropical storms and hurricanes. 


Why the increase this year?

Let look at the total amount of available moisture in the atmosphere in the tropics courtesy of Dr. Jeff Masters at the wunderground.com.

Now take a look at the water temperatures in the same spots compared to the averages and last year. Notice the warm pockets in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and along the eastern US coast. Last year, most of the warmth was located in the central Atlantic.  This year, its all over the place. Click on each image to make it larger.

Last year in late May

Late this May

The latest satellite image shows clusters of storms in these spots as of May 31st.  So look for the first tropical storms to develop in these spots in June and July.

The major hurricanes that make landfall in the US originate in the locations that are the warmest this year. We will need to watch these areas VERY carefully in the months ahead.

La Nina, the temporary cooling trend in the Pacific Ocean is weakening to neutral conditions this summer and early fall.  This allows the winds aloft to weaken allowing tropical storms to develop further without being sheared apart. 

These factors are why the National Hurricane Center is calling for an active hurricane season. Here is their link with the details

One other thing to remember in the next several years:

We are in a period of higher hurricane activity mostly due to the Atlantic Ocean entering a "warm mode" in the mid 1990s.  These warm modes typically last 25-35 years.  We can trace these warm/cold modes back into the 1800s.  These warm modes are directly related to higher hurricane activity.  We can expect a greater than normal number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US in these "warm modes".  This also increases the likelihood of a hurricane making landfall in New England. This is a REAL threat; one that's been a reality in the past and one--according to many forecasters-- will likely occur in the next 5 to 10 years.

If you vacation along the east coast in late August or early September, stay updated on the tropics. The right side of the following graph might be our reality in the future.

Weathermaps from the 1920s...80s to the 40s!

Its been a while since my last post.  Too much current weather to deal with.  In any case, Friday the 13th, our high was 82. By Monday, temps were already in the 40s. So my mind started working:  When was the last time this happened this late in May?

It turns out that it was way back on May 24, 25 of 1925

I found a database of old weather maps online. Back on May 25, 1925, the surface chart from that day looked like this. Charts were created a bit different back then. Notice the "colder than normal" areas they noted.

 Even on May 2,3 of 1920 and again May 10,11 of 1902 when temps were in the 40s in May, the old maps looks very similar highlighting the "colder air"

 Here is 1902

The upper level maps for this week look like this. 

Back in 1966 when we had a stretch of 40 degree weather in May this long, the upper level pattern looked like this:

The upper level pattern on May 8, 1960, the first day of 5 days with temps in the 40s in May.  All of these maps show weather patterns that are eerily similar.

Why the increase in SEVERE WEATHER this spring?

UPDATE 4/28/2011:

Yesterday will go down as the worst tornado outbreak since the Super Outbreak in 1974 which included the Xenia tornado in Southwest Ohio.  Here is roofcam video of a mile-wide tornado that went through Tuscaloosa, Albama.



The final tornado and fatality numbers will be adjusted as the official survey the damage. Here is a look at the storm reports. The tornado reports are highlighted in red.  More than 160 IN JUST ONE DAY.

Great video of a storm chase/tornado in North Carolina from earlier in the month

Why the sudden increase in severe weather? Is it Global Climate Change?  Is it natural climate shifts?  Probably a mixture of both...The driver we will focus on is the role the Pacific Ocean plays inour weather patterns here in Northern Ohio.

The ocean temperatures go through cycles warm and cold, wet to east. This year, the ocean water temperatures are warm west and cold east near South America. This is called LA NINA. Here is an animation of the current ocean temperatures compared to normal. Notice the blue shades east.

This cooling east and warming west causes storms to develop west near Australia.

The ups and downs in the atmosphere causes the jet stream to change causing it to dive into the Great Lakes and into Ohio. Notice the "wet" green area in the Ohio Valley and the shades of red in the deep south.

Our rainfall in Northeastern Ohio has been well above normal this month.

Last year (2010), La Nina hadn't kicked in.  While we did have tornadoes in Ohio (the first graphic below showing locations and intensities last year), the country had far less tornadoes overall compared to 2008; another LA NINA YEAR!

"LA NINA" springs tend to feature greater than normal numbers of tornadoes.  The graph below shows the frequency of F4 and F5 tornadoes compared to LA NINA and EL NINO years. The LA NINA numbers are shown in the red.

Can we expect tornadic weather here in Cleveland and Northeastern Ohio this spring and summer?  Eventually yes.

Here is a loop of the storm reports for the first two weeks of June 2008, a year similar to 2011 when comparing severe weather. Notice the severe storms are further north than the recent outbreaks.

So as the temperatures rise, expect our severe weather chances to increase across Ohio into June and July

Stay Tuned!!!

Opening Day and Record High Temps

Weather and baseball are two of my passions since childhood.  I can't remember the first time I really had a genuine interest in atmospheric science.  I've been swing a baseball bat ever since I could pick one up when I was 2 years old.  The time between seasons is kind of a let-down.  Continuous cold bouts here in Cleveland coupled with unpredictable lake effect snow events with countless "Alberta Clipper" snows (fast moving cold fronts from Canada) make the months of November, December, January and February slow to a crawl.

As Opening Day neared this year, I was tossing around several ideas on combining weather and baseball into an article. The weather has been cold.  Fans dream of a far off day when the temperatures get to a tolerable level--anything above 40!   Then it hit me:  Has anyone performed a correlation between Opening Day and record high temperatures?  If not, then now is a good time considering most of the eastern half of the country has experienced below normal temperatures from early December to late February.  People want warmth and they want it now.  Why not go for the extreme! Check out how much of the country has been below normal this winter...



Many historical articles on weather and baseball have been written for sure. Yet not many on Opening Day, Baseball and Record High Temperatures. More specifically, have we ever broke a high temperature on Opening Day in ANY GAME?

I first narrowed my search to teams that have a history that goes back to the early 20th century.  The final list of teams were:  BOSTON, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, NEW YORK, ST. LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO AND ATLANTA (Including Boston Braves). I chose the Cubs versus the White Sox since there history goes back further.  I also threw Atlanta in the list due to their southern latitude. 

All 9 teams have played in 1108 games on Opening Day at their home ballpark through 2010.

Cross-referencing these games with the record high temperature on that day in THAT year, I came up with only 8 games where we broke the high temperature:

4-15-1941  Philadelphia A's vs Boston Braves - W 6-5

4-21-1921 Boston Braves vs. Washington Senators - L 1-0
4-20-1945 Boston Braves vs. Philadelphia A's - L 5-3

4-22-1938 New York Yankees vs. Washington Senators - W 7-0
4-17-1945 New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Soxs - W 8-4

4-22-1925 St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds - W 12-3
4-9-2001 St. Louis vs. Coloroado Rockies - W 3-2

4-16-1896 Cicninnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates - L 9-1

Weather records go back to the late 1800s for the cities in the east.  Historical weather is highlighted by the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s.  So I figured I would have found more records broke in the dust bowl days of the 1930s.  That wasn't the case.  Temps were cooler than average.

Average temps in April from 1931-1940 are seen here:

 

How about the warm decade of the 2000s according to NASA?  Also, not the case. Just one record high temperature was reached in the 2000s.

Average temps in April from 2001 to 2010 is seen here:

The chances of breaking a record high temperature on Opening Day in your home ballpark is more luck of the draw. It only happens 0.7% of the time.  I'll take those horrible chances than another Opening Day 2007 at Jacobs Field:  Snow, wind, temperatures in the upper 20s.

The Last Push of Winter Ahead

Its been a rough winter for Northeastern Ohio.  Almost 60 days with highs below freezing. More than 80 days with snow on the ground. How about an end?

Well not quite.  The overall pattern of colder air pushing south hasn't really let up.  With the exception of a few brief respites of 50 and 60 degree days over the last few weeks, the winter has been consistantly cold.

Last April was one of the warmest on record.

Now the details on what we are expecting for the rest of this month and April:

This winter has featured a strong La Nina.  This means that the Pacific Ocean temperatures closer to South America have been well below normal.

This shifts the jet stream over North America so that it drives cold fronts in from Canada.

This continued into early March.  Now that La Nina is finally weakening, the jet stream is backing off. This has allowed for warmer than normal air to push north into Ohio over the last few weeks.

Now, the long range outlook is for the La Nina pattern to reestablish itself one more time. Look at the temperature trend compared to normal for the first few days of April.  Its still trending a bit below normal.

The long range model still show temps staying well below normal through the 29th...

Heading into early April, the temps will probably not venture much above normal which is nearing 50 by Apri 1st.  Expecta continued cool and wet spring.

A Brief Explanation on NEUTRONS and NUCLEAR POWER

In school, I remember chemistry being easy to comprehend. Not to oversimplify the science but we mixed chemicals which we could smell and see and voila!  You get some totally different compound with hopefully some fire.  After all, what is chemistry class without fire.

Chemistry reactions result as elections change positions with other electrons with other atoms or molecules.  Physics reactions dive deeper.  The world of physics is much harder to conceptualize because the reactions that define this science occur at the level of the atom. In broad terms (not entirely accurate), an atom looks something like this:  Electrons orbiting around a nucleus of protons and electrons.

What is the particle that is responsible for nuclear reactions?  It is called the NEUTRON.  It resides inside the nucleus.  It wasn't discovered in 1932.  By 1942, it was used in the first nuclear chain reaction. Neutrons are very small.  You could fit more than 66 TRILLION NEUTRONS end to end on a meter stick.

The force that holds this ultra-small particle in the center contains billions and billions of times MORE POTENTIAL ENERGY than everyday chemical reactions.  Its even stronger than GRAVITY! This is what makes nuclear power so attractive.  

Our mind has a difficult time quantifying these changes because these reactions don't occur in our macroscopic world we observe each day.  it isn't until the byproducts of these reactions become a danger in our world we live in.  Unfortunately, the potential meltdown of the nuclear reactors in Japan and the explosions on the news have provided the framework for observation and criticism for all of us not familiar with nuclear technology. 

The fuel that is used in nuclear reactions, believe it or not, occurs in nature.  Uranium is a naturally occurring radioactive element.  It exists in several types. Uranium 235 and 238.  The numbers indicate the number of NEUTRONS IN THE NUCLEUS. 

In a nuclear reaction, the uranium is hit with a neutron.  The collision create tremendous amounts of energy, other elements (Krypton-92 and Barium-141) and MORE NEUTRONS which feed the reaction further.

Remember that the amount of Uranium in a power plant is small compared to necessary amount of coal needed to produce the same amount of energy.  One pound of uranium will provide the same amount of energy as burning 1,500 tons of coal. This is why a conversion to nuclear power has been desirable.  Its very efficient.

Comparing TSUNAMIS from OTHER EARTHQUAKES

Its interesting to watch how these tsunamis have propagated across the oceans of the world after some of the historic earthquakes.  As these maps indicated, the tsunami that hit Japan was not much different in extent than some of the others that originated from historic quakes of the past.  Working backward, we start with the most recent quake in Japan on March 11th

Next is the Chili quake from 2010.  The image has greater detail and the color table is a bit different than the other images

2004 earthquake in Sumantra

1975 quake in Hawaii.  Magnitude 7.2

1964 quake in Alaska. Magnitude:  9.2.  Second largest EVER RECORDED

1960 quake in Chili.  Magnitude:  9.5. LARGEST EVER RECORDED.  Larger image showing more of the world

1929 quake in eastern Canada. Tsunami in the Atlantic Ocean. Magnitude: 7.2

1918 Puerto Rico quake. Magnitude: 7.5

Finally, the 1755 quake in Portugal. Magnitude ~9.0