More Evidence of Building El Nino--Summer Thoughts

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the MEI or Multivariate ENSO Index and how this was a better overall measure of ocean-atmosphere conditions. It takes into account not only sea surface temperatures but sea level pressure, surface temperature, wind and cloud cover.

The update shows a significant increase in El Nino conditions. Given the neutral conditions that existed over the last several months, the events that best fit so far are indicated below. We have a way to go before we reach the MODERATE EL NINO events of 1986 and 2002 in their early stages.

Sub surface warmth continues to move eastward and closer to the surface similar to the El Nino event of 1997-98.

Will the MEI reach 1997 or 1982 levels by the middle of the summer?

Klaus Wolter summarizes the conditions succinctly here:

"I looked at the nearest-ranked Feb-Mar MEI values, and required an increase in their rankings from both the previous month and from Nov-Dec. Of the 9 cases selected in this fashion, three remained either neutral (1960) or dropped back to La Niña status within a year (1961, 1984). The other SIX cases look like a roll-call of historic El Niño events since 1950: 1957-58,'65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-88, and '97-98."

He continues:  "Not only does this confirm the increased odds of an El Niño in 2014 (first pointed out four months ago on this wepage), it also translates into higher odds for a moderate-to-strong El Niño" 

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Using 1963, 68, 86, 91, 94, 2002 and 2006 as the best fit years taking into account the MEI and early stages of a MODERATE EL NINO, the summer temperatures versus average look like this:

If we include the years during the early stages of the STRONG EL NINO events of 1982 and 1997 weighting them the same along with the other years above, we get this:

 If the STRONG EL NINO years are weighted DOUBLE, we get this:  COOLER SUMMER!

The bottom line is this summer's temperature outlook will be determined heavily on how strong this El Nino becomes. Final SUMMER OUTLOOK will be broadcast in early May on WJW FOX 8. 

Spring Rains, Wet Snow Next Week?

I'm back from a few days off last week bringing in more rain!  At least its not snow....not yet anyway. Here are the current radar images for northern Ohio and the Ohio Valley. CLICK HERE for the current RADAR LOOP.



Rainfall will be between 1/2 and 3/4" with locally heavier amounts by Tuesday mid morning.

It should come as no surprise that the long range outlook for next week is STILL showing temperatures cold enough for wet snow. Notice how next week's cold is very similar to the last time we had 2 or more inches of snow in mid April.

Heavy Rain: Current Radar, Rainfall Estimates, NEXT WEEK'S COLD

The cold, steady rains continue. Current radar loops close up over northern Ohio and around the Great Lakes along with rainfall estimates tell the story. Remember that over a week ago, I hinted at a well below normal period during the second week of April. Since this is late in the season, colder periods don't typically last more than a few days. This one next should follow that rule of thumb pretty well. However, it might get cold enough for at the very least, melting snow!



CLICK HERE FOR RADAR LOOP\
CLICK HERE FOR RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR NORTHERN OHIO
CLICK HERE FOR OHIO VALLEY RADAR LOOP


Brief period of cold...wet snow late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Temperatures will rebound nicely by Thursday.

Graphic: Weatherbell

Cool Major League Baseball Infographics

Major Leaguers spent a combined 29,094 days on the Disabled List last year. That's 80 years!

Dimensions of ALL Major League Ballparks

Digging Deeper For Signs Of The Next El Nino

After reading several posts which posed the question of whether a "Super El Nino" will develop this summer, I wanted to find more data to shed light on what to look for in the upcoming weeks. These articles have sited sea surface temperature comparisons to 1997 both on the surface and below, ocean heat content, the building Kelvin Wave and subsequent changes in atmospheric winds.  All seem very valid. Let's review:

Comparing the sea surface temperatures on March 24th of this year to 1982, 1997 and 2002 (a weak El Nino year), each shows some warming in different locations at least on the surface. I circled the area in question in red. This is why we can't use a two dimensional sea surface temperature map as the only El Nino indicator.

 

Ocean Temperatures have been climbing in the western Pacific over the last 30 days. Notice the bubble of warmth between 100 and 200 meters.

Sub surface heat continues to build since the beginning of the year (see above). It compares very well to the onset El Nino of 1997. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows this very well.

HUGE spike in near surface ocean heat last 4 weeks

2002 was a weak El Nino year. The subsurface heating was nowhere as warm.

Comparing the sea surface temperatures on March 24th of this year to 1982, 1997 and 2002 (a weak El Nino year), each shows some warming in different locations at least on the surface. I circled the area in question in red. This is why we can't use a two dimensional sea surface temperature map as the only El Nino indicator.

The Southern Oscillation Index (Pressure index comparing sea level pressure at Darwin, Australia to Tahiti--30 day monthly moving mean) suddenly dropped into heavy El Nino territory.

Yet one index that blends together BOTH the changing ocean characteristics and the atmospheric conditions above it hasn't caught onto the idea...at least yet. Interestingly I haven't found much mention of this. This is called the Multivariate ENSO Index. The index includes several elements into its index: Sea surface temperatures, wind speed and direction, sea level pressure and temperature along with total cloud cover/fraction of the sky. Details are here on ESRL SITE.  Similar to the ONI Index, the MEI Index is calculated using overlapping 2 month periods. Since it takes into account many other atmospheric variables, the El Nino or La Nina signature may lag a bit compared to the others But in my opinion, it gives a better overall representation of the ENSO state even though it might be late to the party.

So far, the MEI is far ahead of 1982 and 1997, yet no positive numbers have shown up. Remember that The MEI is an overlapping bi-monthly indicator. So when the April update comes out (probably the first week of April), it will illustrate the conditions (ocean and atmospheric) for the FEBRUARY-MARCH overlap. If a  significant El Nino is truly developing, a SIGNIFICANT JUMP in the MEI would indicate it THIS SPRING as it did in 1982 and 1997. Check out the chart below for the past trend.

Be careful, the 1986 and 2002 MEI trends were SIMILAR to this year. Those years were weaker El Nino years.

Notice the MEI trends in 1986 and 2002.  Where will the MEI end up this summer?

So what's going to happen? Will the MEI match up with the MEI indices of the past El Ninos circled in black above. Will it mirror 2002 or 1986?

How will this effect out summer weather? 

The next 6 weeks will tell us a great deal.

Vernal Equinox is today. So how COLD was this winter?

The Vernal Equinox is at 12:57PM Eastern Daylight Time.  Astronomical winter is over!

While the meteorological winter is far from following in the footsteps of the earth's tilt and position around the sun, it gives us a good time to look back at the official season of winter to determine how COLD it actually was versus other winter similar to it.

Image: Wunderground

 

Back in February, I mentioned 4 indicators of winter severity.  1) TOTAL SNOWFALL, 2) DAYS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND 3) AVERAGE TEMPERATURE & 4) NIGHTS BELOW 10 DEGREES.  Was this winter among the coldest and snowiest all-time? Where did this winter rank?

Each graph will show where this year resides ALL-TIME which goes back to 1871. Many have mentioned how this winter is the coldest in a generation. So I created a second graph which shows the the information over the last 40 winters (since 1975) for a more recent perspective.

SNOWFALL

RANKS 9th ALL-TIME

 77.0"

  

LAST 40 WINTERS

4 WINTERS IN THE EARLY 2000s HAD MORE SNOW THAN THIS WINTER!

DAYS/SNOW ON GROUND MORE THAN 1"

RANKS 5th ALL-TIME

 79 DAYS

THIS WINTER IS TIED WITH 2010-11 AND 2002-03 FOR DAYS WITH SNOW COVER GREATER THAN 1 INCH:  

NIGHTS BELOW 10 DEGREES

RANKS 11th ALL-TIME

26 NIGHTS

THE LAST WINTER WITH MORE NIGHTS BELOW 10 DEGREES WAS WINTER 1978-79

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

RANKS 20th ALL-TIME

COLDEST SINCE 1993-94

5TH COLDEST IN THE LAST 40 WINTERS

 

Don't Walk on the Lake Erie Ice!

We see people walking on the Lake Erie ice every year when the lake ice cover is significant. Why people would take this chance especially this time of year when the ice becomes very unstable is beyond me. DON'T WALK ON LAKE ERIE THIS TIME OF YEAR!

The lake ice begins to crack and thin as the overall temperatures begin to climb in late March and early April. The sun angle is also higher so the sun is much stronger than what it was a month ago.

Look at the record setting ice cover statistics from the winter of 1977-78. From March 15th to April 9th, the ice went from 95% to 34%.  A loss of 61% in 3 1/2 weeks!

Expect this trend this year heading into early April. Remember, all of this melting and thinning continues to occur even when we have temporary cold spells.

So don't be fooled. Stay away from the ice!

Wednesday, March 12th Snowstorm Forecast

I'm fairly confident on the timing of the rain/sleet/freezing overnight tonight and early Wednesday.
Current image is HERE...



The initial wave of rain will move into Ohio during the night.

By sunrise/morning rush, the southern and eastern areas will be only rain with a RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX further west and north. The dividing line will bisect northern Ohio between 6 and 9AM

7 AND 8AM

LATE MORNING

AFTERNOON

Temps will fall fast into the 20s by early afternoon...teens by early evening.

Winds will be steady above 25-30 mpg with 40-45 mph gusts late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Updated snowfall forecast keep a thin band of heavy snow well north from Toledo to Sandusky, Lorain, Cleveland and east. Amounts will drop off further south. Much of the accumulation will be from mid morning through early evening.

March Temperatures after COLD WINTER

Since January 1st, our average temperature (highs AND lows) is now ranked 7TH COLDEST over the last 100 years! Normal I would include December. However, since most of our winter occurs after the first of the year, I felt this was a better representation of the winter as a whole.

Lake Erie ice cover is still around 95% after a 10% loss last weekend which we regained this week. Notice that their are a handful of years in the past with at least 90% ice cover this late in the season.

By early March, the ice cover historically begins to melt. 6 years still had at least 905 ice cover. 1977, 1979, 1982, 2003, 2007 & 2008.

The big question: what were the March temperatures like in the winters that were COLDER (see list above) than this year?

I created a table that shows all of the high temperatures for March for EACH year in the list above. The years are: 1918, 1920, 1936, 1963, 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1982. I circled the days at or BELOW FREEZING in BLUE and the days ABOVE 60 in RED to show the frequency of the extremes. You can see that its not all that uncommon to have a few days in the 20s and 30s early in March after bitterly cold winters. Yet when the pattern shows spring tendencies (days in the 60s or better), those warmer days typically occur in bunches.

Fear not. There is probably one or two more bursts of winter cold left during the first half of March before our chances of seeing a 60 degree day become increasingly better!