Tuesday Isaac Update: Isaac Rainfall over Ohio? Chance Are Good

Isaac will become a weak Category 1 hurricane later today if not there already as of midday Tuesday. Winds are getting tighter within the core. Pressure is dropping slowly.  Intensification is ongoing. An eye is forming slowly. Unfortunately for residents along the gulf coast near New Orleans, landfall seem eminent on the 7th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Winds won't be the biggest problem. Heavy rain approaching 20"+ with a high storm surge will cause millions of dollars of damage.

The National Hurricane Center is still forecasting a landfall early Wednesday with more than 15" of rain in a huge area of the south.

WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WE GET FROM ISAAC?

Using Google Maps, we can superimpose the computer projections over Ohio to see the possible track this weekend.

Now, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is now painting a HUGE swath of rain for Illinois, Indiana and Ohio for Sunday.

THIS COULD BE A HUGE RAIN EVENT!

The remains of Isaac to head north into Arkansas, Missouri bringing welcome rain to the drought stricken regions of the midwest. The hardest hit drought areas are circled on the map below. 

Rainfall in this area could exceed 3-5" assuming that the remains of Isaac track up the Mississippi. While not a drought buster, it would alleviate the dry conditions.

The remains will curve into Illinois, Indiana and then Ohio this weekend. The bigger questions all of us in Northeastern Ohio is:

WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WE GET FROM ISAAC?

Using Google Maps, we can superimpose the computer projections over Ohio to see the possible track this weekend.

These solutions are looking more accurate with each run. Granted, we are still 5 days out. Tropical systems that work over land change drastically over time. Yet, they have a history of producing this type of rain in Ohio. Here is the rain shield that extended from the gulf to Ohio from Katrina. We received several inches of rain from that event. More later this week!