How Rare Are "NOVEMBER SEVERE WEATHER HIGH RISK" Forecasts? VERY!

Damage from Washington, Illinois (Chicago Tribune)

Several requests on the history of MODERATE and HIGH RISKS for the US and OHIO in November. I found some answers on the Storm Prediction Site.

Only 2 other instances where the Storm Prediction Center issued forecasts for HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER in November:  2002 and 1998.  None of these HIGH RISKS were for any part of Ohio. Both of these featured large tornado outbreaks.

Image courtesy Greg Carbin, SPC

This is what Sunday's event looked like with storm report dots superimposed over the risk areas

Image courtesy: Eric Fisher/Jesse Ferrell on Twitter

Only 10 MODERATE RISK AREAS have been issued in November since 1998. 4 of the 10 were issued on the same date or later in the month. NONE WERE ISSUED IN OHIO!!!

Image Courtesy Greg Carbin, SPC