Thursday, December 7 Forecast UPDATE

Good morning everyone.  Our active weather pattern continues this weekend.

First, it's not your imagination. The first 6 days of December have been abnormally cloudy...even for northern Ohio.  This graphic shows the percentage of cloud cover for the first 6 days of December over the last 5 years.  Grey colors indicate overcast skies. Light blue show clear skies. The last time we started out this cloudy in December was 5 years ago!

Seasonal snowfall totals through December 7 are still running slightly below normal.

Today, a weak warm front moves through this morning with flurries/heavy cloud cover. Sun returns this afternoon with temps rising into the mid/upper 40s.

Two days in the mid/upper 50s with southwesterly winds.  Next system already developing out west. Expect this to move west to east this weekend. 

Temperature forecast for Friday, Saturday and early Sunday: Saturday will be slightly milder than Friday. 

Temps will drop throughout the day Sunday.  Winds will gust to 25 mph and higher Sunday. Around 50 early Sunday morning, 45 around noon and 30s by 6PM.  30s on Monday. Temps back to near 40 by Tuesday.

Gulf moisture feeds the front. A spotty shower will arrive well ahead of the main line of showers late Saturday morning.  Limited coverage. Overall mainly dry periods through early Saturday afternoon. Rain coverage will increase significantly Saturday night and Sunday morning.

By Sunday morning, winds will gust to 30-35 mph throughout the day.  Rain continues through mid afternoon with an abrupt changeover to wet snow around sundown. Heaviest rain will be across eastern Ohio.

This front moves FAST so accumulations will be quick and brief Sunday evening/night.  Temps will be cold enough for some weak lake effect snow Monday.  Too early for snow forecast numbers.  But initial indications show that the cold isn't extreme.  This should limit lake effect accumulations to the lighter side.  Drier air arrives fast Tuesday.

Snowfall forecast:  Coverage will be mainly across eastern Ohio. Initial estimates keep amounts under 2 inches.

Temperatures rebound by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week and continuing into the following weekend.  Next system develops by Sunday December 17th.  I would expect this to intensify with widespread rain (snow) by Dec 18-20 for Ohio.

Panhandle storm track continues during the week before/after Christmas.  Too early for day-to-day details. That said, white Christmas chances climbing!

See my previous post HERE for details on the longer range outlook components I'm monitoring as we head into early 2024.