November 2021 Recap: Where Did The Temperatures End Up?

After a super warm October around most of the country, November featured more periods of "cold" across the eastern US.

First the October temperatures vs average

Now the November temperatures vs average (US)

Breaking down November into weekly periods you can see how variable the temperatures were as the split jet stream shifted week to week.  First week was colder than normal (lower left) across eastern US. The cold backed off the second week as the jet weakened as it lifted back into central Canada (upper right)

Third week featured the return of the northern jet across the northern states (upper left below) with colder periods more frequent (lower left).  By November 16-18, southern jet became stronger with a more uniform northern jet more southeast. The result was warmer temps out west with more sustained colder temps eastern US (lower right)

A close up look at the northern US/Great Lakes shows the sharp contrast between temperature regimes.

Max temperatures & Minimum temperatures vs average. 

So far most of the lake effect communities across the Great Lakes have had slightly above normal snowfall.

Overall snowfall across the US is below last year

Next post we'll take a look at what December is looking like!

Buffalo Lake Effect Events: Oct 12-13, 2006 vs Current Event

I remember the October 2006 lake effect snow event well. I was sitting in the WJW FOX 8 weather center watching a band of snow moving parallel to the Lake Erie shoreline about 15-20 miles offshore near Ashtabula, Ohio.  The leading edge of the snow barreled through Buffalo, New York.

This is the only lake effect event comparable--when looking at the temperature parameters--to the current Buffalo event I can remember. It started on October 12, 2006 and finished the next day.

The Lake Erie water temperature was 62 degrees. The air aloft (5000 feet)--the key level for determining lake effect--was -8 celsius (or 17 degrees F).

The temperature difference: 45 degrees from the surface to 5000 feet.

Here were the 2 day totals:

In the current (November 18-19, 2014) event, the lake water temperature in the eastern basin of Lake Erie is between 50 and 54 degrees. The air aloft (5000 feet) was -18 celsius (or zero degrees F)! 

The temperature difference: 54 degrees from the surface to 5000 feet!

This eastern basin warm pocket fueled the snow development as the wind paralleled the shoreline before it made landfall south of Buffalo. The key has been the wind direction. The SW wind (now WSW) carried the arctic air directly over the ENTIRE warm pool of water. The fetch over the warm pocket was more than 100 miles! Normally in northern Ohio, the fetch is between 50 and 60 miles from Canada to Cleveland.

Notice the intensity and uniformity of the lake effect snow band compared to the "edgier, disjointed-looking" radar loop from the October 2006 snow event

November 18, 2014 Event

October 12-13, 2006 event

This type of cold in November (850mB temps at -18) has occurred a dozen times in Buffalo (upper air soundings) since 1950, the most recent was last year.
 

Snow forecast map from the National Weather Service office in Buffalo.

Snow totals as of mid evening Tuesday 11/18. Final snow totals coming later in the week.

Unbelievable November Cold, Lake Effect Snow!

Lake Effect Clouds Along Cleveland Shoreline Heading to Buffalo, New York

More than 80% of the US was below freezing Tuesday morning; 50%+ under 20 degrees.

It was the coldest average Continental US November temperature since 1976.

Stats below courtesy: Ryan Maue.

Average US temperature at 6AM Tuesday 11/18: 19.8 degrees!

Ohio's statewide average temperature was more than 12 DEGREES COLDER than the statewide Alaska average temperature this morning.

Buffalo, New York will end up with more than 45 inches of snow by Wednesday morning. 850 temperatures between -18 and -21 over eastern basin of Lake Erie. This would mark only the 6th TIME Buffalo, NY had 850 mB temperatures below -20 since 1950!  The other years (1955, 58, 59 and 1987) Date here

Snow band. Photo courtesy; WGRZ, Twitter

Lake effect parameters are off the charts!

A break comes later this week with a run at 50 by Sunday and Monday.

Another cold blast could drop late in Thanksgiving week. More of the same: Eastern trough/below normal temperatures continue to dominate.

FIRST LAKE EFFECT EVENT

ARCTIC COLD TUESDAY ACROSS CONUS - BUFFALO SNOW EVENT

 THANKSGIVING WEEK COLD/SNOW? MORE TO COME LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND