How Does Our Spring Rain/Temperatures Compare To Year's Past?

Rainfall amounts officially at NWS Cleveland from March 1 through April 30 versus last year (2025) are very similar. 

Now 2026:

The high amount of rain this early spring wasn't relegated to just Ohio.  Most of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and mid-west experienced the same with most spots seeing their top 5 rainiest March and April ever!

April of 2025 saw more than DOUBLE the number of lightning strikes across Ohio than 2026.

Using the aridity index, a good comparison to how the overall temperature + rainfall departure conditions evolved from March 1 to late June. Notice how we have slowly trended to zero this year as the frequency of rain has dropped.  Included is last year and 2011 (the wettest year on record).

The rest of the country continues to experience drought conditions as of June 23.

Looking at the temperatures, what's interesting is that April was one of the warmest on record not only across Ohio but across much of the US as a whole.

Since early May, temperatures have been above normal out west and near/slightly below normal across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes

The wet conditions have continued across the corn belt in May and early/mid June.

Above normal number of severe storms across the same region this year:

2025 storm reports:

Tornadoes this year from March 1 through June 23:  Illinois leads all states with 200 as of June 23

Tornadoes last year from March 1 through June 23:

Ohio has had only 12 this year so far.  Compared this to 2024 with 59 at the end of June!

Spring Snowfall History

Last year, I created this calendar chart showing the occurrences of measurable snowfall for each day from March 20 through late May in Cleveland.

For the period ending March 31, I only listed snowfall of more than one inch

For the period April 1-15, all snowfalls more than 1/2" are listed.

From April 15-20, all snowfalls greater than 0.1".

ALL measurable snowfalls including TRACE amounts after May 1 are shown.

Here are the snowfall totals after April 15:

Why The Uptick In Severe Weather? HUGE recap

Hailstone from April 15 storm in NE Ohio

Since the beginning of March, the overall pattern across the central US/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes has been unsettled with frequent storm systems, heavy rain and multiple severe weather events. How did this pattern evolve?

The jet stream across the Pacific has been very strong going back to late February. A persistent low near Hawaii produced record setting rainfall. The warm, moist air was transported to the Pacific Northwest where diabatic heating occurred (the transfer of heat through the system as water condenses -- latent heat). This heating strengthened the upper level ridge through compression which causes more heat and dry conditions at the surface. As the ridge strengthened out west, low pressure systems traveled up and over the ridge intensifying as they moved through the central US/Ohio Valley.  Think of it like building up speed as you ride a roller roaster up and over the top.

Here is a great article that compares the March 2026 pattern evolution which created the heat out west to the June 2021 event. It also discusses the climate change connection:

In more technical terms from the article:

"Warm, moist air ascended rapidly within the cyclone’s warm conveyor belt, the river of air that rises from the boundary layer ahead of a cold front. As the air ascended, water vapor condensed, releasing enormous quantities of latent heat. That heating reorganized the potential vorticity (PV) structure of the atmosphere: below the heating maximum, PV was enhanced (strengthening the cyclone), while above it, anomalously low-PV air was produced and transported into the upper troposphere. This low-PV outflow spread poleward, displacing the jet and amplifying a downstream ridge over western North America. The ridge then drove intense subsidence and adiabatic warming at the surface."

The ridge expansion is illustrated nicely in this animation:

By late March, the ridge strength was at levels usually seen in mid summer. Notice that as the ridge deepened (warm colors), the trough across the central US/Great Lakes also deepened (blue areas). This trough fed the development of each one of the storm systems which traveled up and over the ridge.

Upper level pattern evolution across the northern Pacific and North America since early February in 7 day increments. Warmer colors indicate high pressure. Colder colors low pressure.

This pattern created record heat across the much of the US.

This ended up being the warmest March on record beating out 2012:

March temperature ranks

Interestingly, as the US set records, most of Canada and Alaska was experiencing record cold for March.

Heavy snow across northern Michigan over a three day period between March 14-17.

Rainfall in March across the Ohio Valley was well above normal normal.

Some of strongest wind gusts in the last 50 years in northern Ohio were felt on March 13:

Rainfall from March through April 16 versus normal:

Number of severe thunderstorm warnings for Ohio is now at 92 through April 15. Here is the data since 1995.

Coverage of severe thunderstorm warnings across Ohio this year vs 2025:

Now we add the tornado warnings to the map.

Just northern Ohio.

Surprisingly, the number of lightning strikes across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Iowa and Wisconsin between March 17 and April 16, 2026 was 31% lower vs the same period in 2025!  402,955 vs 275, 970

Compare this year to years past for all of Ohio.

Compare this year to years past for Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Will this pattern continue throughout the spring and summer?  More ahead.