Unseasonably Strong Rain Event Next 24 Hours

Early September is usually not the time we get a huge, mid-latitude cold front pass over Ohio. This evening through Saturday will be one of these rare events.

Current radar is very quiet so far...

 

CURRENT RADAR LOOP OVER NE OHIO HERE

We continue to watch north of Illinois for the main line of heavy and rain to develop.  

The majority of the heavy rain and storms should push through late this evening and overnight tonight.

Rainfall amounts overnight tonight and early Saturday will exceed 1"+ in many areas

Art Modell Passed Away This Morning; Time to Mourn Not Be Angry

I've been a Browns fan since my first game in 1979 when the Browns played the Baltimore Colts.

I had a Brian Sipe poster until it fell apart a few years back.

My Marty Schottenheimer autograph is framed. My 1985 and 1986 team photos are proudly displayed in my basement.

My Cleveland Stadium is sitting at the foot of my basement steps. I always wondered if my grandfather who worked at the stadium in the 1950s wiped this seat down when he worked as a usher.

I watched EVERY playoff game in the 1980s.  My mom bought Browns bread from Stop-N-Shop.  I still have a Browns 1988 towl hanging in my old room at my parents' house. (It never made it into the basement at my house)

For many years, I wished that John Elway would fall flat on his face for Captaining the drives that sunk the Browns' Superbowl appearances. 

I screamed when Byner fumbled, sank when Bernie was released; scoffed when he signed Andre Risen

I was shocked when the team was moved in 1995. It still hurts. I remember that day vividly.

After the move when the city was in the process of tearing down the old stadium, I would drive by the empty shell every day. I knew a guy who was working security when they tore down the old stadium so I had the chance to walk around the field before the wrecking ball.  That day, I was the only person in the stadium! The field was faded. The seats torn out. The ads were gone. It was cloudy and cold.  It was, and still is the eeriest feeling I've ever experienced.

That said, on this day of Art Modell's passing, I do grieve for him and his family.  Make no mistake, The Move really ticked me off! But its been 17 years.  I'm over it.

Maybe if the Indians would have won the World Series in 1995 and 1997, fan sentiments would be less harsh.

Maybe if the Cavs would have made it further into the playoffs in the 1990s, the chip on our collective shoulder would be lighter

Maybe if the Browns since 1999 would have had more than ONE playoff appearance, our incendiary comments about Art Modell's since his death would be more about the good that he brought the city through his philanthropic endeavors.

This chip on our collective shoulder covers all Cleveland fans young and old.    We all carry around alot of powerful feelings about this city's lack of a winner since the early 1960s.  We reach the top of the mountain only to slip off the other side.  Its a chip that will take a generation to completely fall off. Every playoff season, I feel a portion of that chip sink deeper into my soul.

At that time when Gateway was being developed, Modell was left out.  He dumped tons of money in repairing the Old Stadium with no return.  If I was in the same position, maybe I would have done the same.  I don't know.  All that I know is that I am over the move.  Most fans under the age of 25 have no memory of the move.  Its all of us thirty-somethings and older who had our hearts ripped from us!  Yet through all of this, I've learned to put my aggressive emotions aside and compartmentalize the vast scope of the team's operational history since the 1980s.  Once I do that and remove my fan allegiance for a moment,  I understand that the move was a business decision.

Let's all show some proper respect in Art Modell's passing.

The Browns are back and are now entering their 14th season.  Lets focus on the positive. I never said it would be easy

Local Heavy Rain from Issac This Weekend

Rains from Isaac continue to stall over the southern portions on NE Ohio. A few clusters of heavy rainfall have settled in Lorain, Medina and Cuyahoga counties. Here is the radar loop from 11:30PM Saturday night which gives you a good idea of what the radar will look like Sunday: Localizes heavy rain!

CLICK HERE for the newest radar loop

Aside from lake effect snow, predicting how tropical systems will effect northeastern Ohio days in advance is one of the toughest tasks as a meteorologist here in Ohio. Its only happened 14 times since 1851 so there aren't many examples to learn from. Here are the 14 tropical system tracks as they crossed over Ohio. Its a jumbled mess of lines but you get the idea. Notice Katrina, Opal, Hugo and Fran from recent memory.

The other tropical systems that are comparable in their track to Isaac are:  Candy 1968, Katrina 2005 and
Opal in 1995; Dennis is a good one too.

This weekend, several elements will be impacting the movement of Isaac's remains. The first is the dry air over Ohio and surrounding areas. The water vapor satellite photo shows this very well. White colors are moisture, dark colors are dry air.

The other element is the cold front moving south. This will act at as the steering mechanism which continue to focus the rain further east into Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

As of late Saturday, rainfall from Isaac will be centered in Illinois and Indiana this weekend through Monday

Isacc Slows To A Crawl, Massive Flooding, Media Overhype?

First, let me address one item before we dive into the meteorology of Isaac. Many are saying that the media is over-hyping Isaac.  To this I say, ABSOLUTELY NOT.

 While I am very critical of the media's handling of weather stories, hurricanes or tropical storms are a different matter. These storms are very large and the impact can be felt across several states at a time. Too often, people fixate on the wind speed and wind gusts as a gauge on how damaging the storm will be in any one location. Yet rainfall and flooding are often overlooked as major damage contributors. My theory is that because flooding events are so hard to quantify and even harder to forecast locally, our minds don't process  hearing a forecast of 5 to 10" of rain.  A wind speed forecast of 80 mph hit our brain like a lead weight and drives home the story faster and harder. Only after we see video or pictures of the areas flooded does it sink in. The fact that Isaac delayed the Republican National Convention makes it seem more significant.  Isaac was on the news a week ago so we were primed for hearing the name "Isaac" when it was 500 miles away. More importantly, Isaac is hitting a major US city which lies below sea level makes the situation potential worse than if it hit Miami.

My point is that rainfall and subsequent flooding from ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM regardless of the wind speed can be deadly. We can never underestimate or under report any tropical storm!  Yes, Isaac is no Katrina. The characteristics of Isaac are far different than Katrina. The direction of moving is different.  By Thursday, the flooding will no doubt be as destructive for many of the same areas hit by Katrina exactly 7 years ago.

Now to the weather.  Why has Isaac slowed down?

The high pressure ridge north of the gulf coast centered over the mid west and the Great Lakes is pushing south and east deflecting the movement of Isaac west. The steering currents are not favorable for rapid movement inland.  So Isaac continues a Northwest crawl at 6 mph.

Compare this setup to Katrina. Notice the trough in the middle of the country. The steering currents were perfect for a northerly trek inland

Wind direction around the storm and into the shoreline is from the southeast and east. A report of 110 mph gusts Bayou Gauche from St. Charles Parish EOC.  This direction funnels gulf moisture right into New Orleans and surrounding areas making the flooding threat greater even with the lack of Katrina-like winds.

A close up of the wind field around Isaac really tells the story on how the southeasterly winds pull gulf moisture right onto the shoreline.

Here is a great map showing the rainfall as of 8AM Wednesday which is approaching 10 inches.

New Orleans more than any city in the US is the most susceptible to flooding because it sits below sea level. Here are a few streets elevation compared to how they sit relative to the sea. The map is not to scale.

Now you see why the media can't emphasize tropical storm/hurricane landfalls near New Orleans enough.

Tuesday Isaac Update: Isaac Rainfall over Ohio? Chance Are Good

Isaac will become a weak Category 1 hurricane later today if not there already as of midday Tuesday. Winds are getting tighter within the core. Pressure is dropping slowly.  Intensification is ongoing. An eye is forming slowly. Unfortunately for residents along the gulf coast near New Orleans, landfall seem eminent on the 7th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Winds won't be the biggest problem. Heavy rain approaching 20"+ with a high storm surge will cause millions of dollars of damage.

The National Hurricane Center is still forecasting a landfall early Wednesday with more than 15" of rain in a huge area of the south.

WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WE GET FROM ISAAC?

Using Google Maps, we can superimpose the computer projections over Ohio to see the possible track this weekend.

Now, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is now painting a HUGE swath of rain for Illinois, Indiana and Ohio for Sunday.

THIS COULD BE A HUGE RAIN EVENT!

The remains of Isaac to head north into Arkansas, Missouri bringing welcome rain to the drought stricken regions of the midwest. The hardest hit drought areas are circled on the map below. 

Rainfall in this area could exceed 3-5" assuming that the remains of Isaac track up the Mississippi. While not a drought buster, it would alleviate the dry conditions.

The remains will curve into Illinois, Indiana and then Ohio this weekend. The bigger questions all of us in Northeastern Ohio is:

WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WE GET FROM ISAAC?

Using Google Maps, we can superimpose the computer projections over Ohio to see the possible track this weekend.

These solutions are looking more accurate with each run. Granted, we are still 5 days out. Tropical systems that work over land change drastically over time. Yet, they have a history of producing this type of rain in Ohio. Here is the rain shield that extended from the gulf to Ohio from Katrina. We received several inches of rain from that event. More later this week!

Isaac Intensifying; Isaac Remains in Ohio? Airshow Problems?

We've been tracking Isaac since early last week. Now that Issac is heading into the Gulf of Mexico with no land to inhibit its development, the forecast is now more certain. Unfortunately for residents along the gulf coast near New Orleans, landfall seem eminent on the 7th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

Here is the latest satellite image of Isaac. Click on this link for the most recent image

How does this hurricane compare to Katrina? Look at the track of Katrina. It came out of the south as it made landfall in Louisiana...

 Isaac is coming more out of the southeast and is far weaker (at the time of this post)

The gulf water temperatures are running well above normal. This aids in the intensification process by evaporating water (the salt stays in the ocean). The process of water vapor condensing into water drops releases tremendous amounts of energy which all originates from water ocean water.

National Hurricane Center is still forecasting a landfall near New Orleans early Wednesday morning

Heavy rain from New Orleans to Pensacola. Notice the amounts:  18 inch bulls eye along the coast. Storm surge will be the highest along the Mississippi coast

All of the models are pushing Isaac further west with the remains into Ohio by this weekend. If you are heading to the Cleveland Airshow at Burke Lakefront Airport, stay up on the latest forecast

One

Using Google Maps, I pasted the model projection over a closeup of Ohio. I show this only because I love seeing things in weather that don't often happen. A projection that takes tropical remains over Ohio is not an everyday event. Something to watch later this week...

Isaac Update - Gulf Coast Landfall Looking Better and Better

This morning's Tropical Isaac update shows more consensus on the track of Isaac as it intensifies into a hurricane.

The satellite shows the areas of concentrated convection coming together as it moves into warmer waters.

The track as of mid morning Friday continues to show it moving over Cuba, Key West and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week

The wind swath painted by the National Hurricane Center shows tropical storm force winds over a large area.

 Rainfall will be tremendous across southern Florida and into southern Alabama and the panhandle of Florida. Look at the 8"+ ares from Key West northwest.

Hurricane Dennis back in 2005 took a similar track.

The water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are above normal in most areas so the potential for intensification is very high before it make landfall along the gulf coast. Check out the temperatures. The black line indicates the projected path of Isaac.

What about after it makes landfall? The long range track pulls the center of Isaac more east which would eliminate Ohio's chances of seeing tropical rainfall. More updates this weekend!

Tropical Storm Issac Moving Toward Florida/Gulf Coast

Hurricane season is all of a sudden upon us after a relatively quiet summer in the tropics. Now, Tropical Storm Issac is steady with further development to hurricane strength (if not already).

The satellite image (as of Thursday) doesn't show a defined eye. That should change later this week.

The hurricane track from the National Hurricane Center always included a white cone which shows the degree of uncertainty in the movement of the movement. The larger the cone, the greater the uncertainty. Here is a great graph on this "Cone of Uncertainty".

You can trace the beginnings of this storm back to the African country of Guinea when it was a weak tropical wave.

 

Now to the specifics. Most of the statistical and dynamical models bring Issac near Florida later this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center concurs.

Tropical wind speed swath paints a rough picture for Southern Florida.

Rainfall for southern Florida could be excessive!

How does Issac compare to other tropical systems that share similar speed, intensity, motion, location?

 Could Issac redevelop in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall along the Gulf Coast?  Yes!!!

Computer projections take the remains of Issac right up the east coast next week. This could bring heavy rainfall from Georgia to Virginia. More later this week!