Will We See 500 Homers Again? Updated Leaderboards

Opening Day 2013 is in the books. The dawn of the newest crop of young talent like Bryce Harper, Buster Posey and Mike Trout is showing signs of dominating the majors in the years to come.  Players like Miguel Cabrera who is in his 11th season began his MLB career in 2003! Chew on that for a minute. Let's put it another way: The number of players who were active as games resumed after 9/11 that are still active in 2013 is probably very small. The new generation of talent is here.

Last summer, knowing that the youth movement was in full swing, I looked up and down the active leader boards to see if any milestones were in reach by some of the veteran players who might not have many years left. Too my astonishment, milestones wouldn't be reached as frequently as what we saw in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Check out the link to my original post HERE. Basically, I "cleaned" up the leader boards so as to reflect an active leader board list more true to future trends. My list back in August had some pretty big assumptions such as retirements, part-time players and, in retrospect, some grossly optimistic bounce-backs of a few players. Back in 2008, I created a similar list with again, some REALLY optimistic projections for a few players that seem follish now. How things have changed since then!

What do these leader boards look like now? The first number is the actual stat (as of April 3rd), the second is the player's first year, the third is their position on the all-time list. The leader boards all of a sudden look a whole lot different!  I didn't list players who were not on a Major League roster on opening day. I also didn't list part-time playeers like Jason Giambi. Aside from Jeter and A-Rod, not many players are close to the top.


HOMERUNS

Alex Rodriguez    647    1994    5th
Albert Pujols       475     2001    29st
Paul Konerko      422    1997    46th
David Ortiz          401    1997    50th
Adam Dunn         406    2001    49th
Alfonso Soriano   372    1999    71th
Lance Berkman   360    1999    75th
Todd Helton        354    1997    82nd
Adrian Beltre       346    1998    88th
Aramis Ramirez   342    1998     89th

RUNS SCORED

Alex Rodriguez  1898     1994      10th
Derek Jeter        1868     1995      13th
Todd Helton       1360     1997      98th
Albert Pujols      1376     2001      94st
Carlos Beltran    1267     1998    136nd
Ichiro Suzuki      1204     2001    169th
Jimmy Rollins     1182     2000    190th
David Ortiz         1124     1998    226th
Paul Konerko     1106      1997    240th
Adrian Beltre      1089      1998    250th

HITS

Derek Jeter        3304    1995    11th
Alex Rodriguez   2901    1994    37st
Ichiro Suzuki      2607    2001    76th
Todd Helton       2422     1997    113th
Albert Pujols      2246    2001    162th
Michael Young   2230     2000    167th
Adrian Beltre      2227    1998    168th
Paul Konerko     2183    1997    184th
Juan Pierre        2142     2000    211th
Carlos Beltran    2065    1998     237th

DOUBLES

Todd Helton        570    1997    22nd
Derek Jeter         524    1995    40th
Alex Rodriguez    512    1994    48th
Albert Pujols       505    2001    53th
David Ortiz          482    1997    75th
Adrian Beltre       452    1998    86th
Alfonso Soriano   434   1999    124th
Aramis Ramirez   425   1998    137th
Jimmy Rollins      421    2000   143rd
Carlos Beltran     416     1998   147th

GAMES PLAYED

Derek Jeter          2585    1995    40th
Alex Rodriguez    2524    1994    50th
Paul Konerko      2143     1997   162nd
Todd Helton         2125    1997    166th
Adrain Beltre        2117    1998    173rd
Torii Hunter          1948     1997   267th
Raul Ibanez          1912    1996    286th
Carlos Beltran      1921    1998    284th
Ichiro Suzuki        1912    2001    290th
Juan Pierre          1882    2000     311th

STEALS

Juan Pierre        591    2000    19th
Ichiro Suzuki     452    2001    51th
Carl Crawford   432    2002    57th
Jose Reyes        410    2003    65th
Jimmy Rollins    403    2000    72th
Derek Jeter       348    1995    112th
Alez Rodruguez 318    1994    145th
Rafael Furcal     314    2000    152nd
Carlos Beltran   306    1998    155th
Michael Bourne 276   2006     184th




WINS

Andy Pettitte          245    1995    52th
Roy Halladay         199    1998    112th
Tim Hudson           197    1999    118th
CC Sabathia          191    2001    139th
Derek Lowe          175   1997     171st
Mark Buehrle        174    2000    172th
Barry Zito              154    2000    237th
Chris Carpenter     144    1997    266th
Johan Santana        139    2000    295th
A.J. Burnett           137    1999    304th

Moral Intuition and Social Media

If you've read my posts on Scott's World of Weather, you've probably seen my posts on psychology and how it related to how we perceive the weather. In that vein, I just read a great article on how we react to situations. The premise of the article is: WE REACT TO SITUATIONS AT WORK, AT HOME, ON THE STREET, ETC WITH OUR MORAL INTUITION FIRST AHEAD OF OUR CONSCIOUS MORAL REASONING. The author uses the term 'Social Intuitionism".

The article stems from a book by Jonathan Haidt, a moral psychologist who theorizes that our moral intuition reacts before any moral reasoning takes place. This might seem like common sense. Yet he surmises that our moral reactions are more "similar to sensations of taste". He identifies 6 of these "moral taste receptors": HARM, FAIRNESS, LIBERTY, AUTHORITY, LOYALTY and SANCTITY. His book describes how these societal traits evolved from basic behaviors like "protecting our children, forming coalitions, forming hierarchies, etc" just to name a few. Its theorized that these moral intuitions evolved from the primal behaviors which our human ancestors needed for basic survival.

I couldn't help but think about how our Social Networking behavior online often follows the same pattern.  Take Facebook comments for example. How many times have you posted some innocuous message on Facebook or Twitter where the comments are driven by the aforementioned "moral intuition"?  People seem to let their moral intuition guide their comments before their moral reasoning/rational side can have a say. Perhaps its a derivative of our ancestral survival instinct. The difference is Social Media is not a "life or death" activity. Yet many of us treat as such.

How often do we see people comment with their emotions first? Quiet a bit.

How often do we see people evoke some preconceived notion in a comment instead of rationalizing their viewpoint? Quiet a bit.

Conversely, how often do we see people let their rational side guide their comments before their emotion or--as the author of the book states--moral intuition impulsively takes over? Not much.

Let's stretch out the author's findings over a larger component of the social sciences. Politicians feed on our "moral intuition" by talking about issues in such a way as to cater to a specific demographics propensity for quick judgments Whether a person is left leaning or right leaning, the idea of a moral intuition--quick judgments before cognitive reasoning--applies.

Why does this matter? The more we have an understanding of how our consciousness works, the better our interactions with other in high pressure environments.

Some thoughts as I head out to Progressive Field where I will no doubt pull a hammy.

Education & Unemployment: Two Charts Tells The Story

While the price of a college education has continued to rise, its importance has risen along with it. These charts tell us that someone with a college degree is more apt to be employed at this stage of the recession recovery than someone with only a high school diploma. Annual earnings of a college graduate is also much higher. Bottom line: Go to college and get a degree!!!!!

Cool March...How About April Temperatures?

BIG QUESTION: WILL APRIL'S TEMPERATURES BE BELOW NORMAL?....

I love the NOAA Reanalysis site! Its interesting to look back at past year's weather and patterns.  I looked at the MARCHES that were COOLER than this MARCH and did a composite of the APRILS that followed (20 of them). What I found isn't too mild. 

The April's that followed were still below normal on average.
  NORMAL HIGH on APRIL 1st is 53; NORMAL HIGH on APRIL 30th is 65.

Keep in mind that this is only a STATISTICAL COMPARISON NOT A DYNAMIC ONE. I didn't weed out or add any atmospheric variables that exist this year versus in the past so don't take this too literally. that said, its an interesting map; one that we will need to watch in the upcoming weeks.

If this holds true, expect highs to stay in the 50s and 60s with some stretches of mid 40s throughout the month. Let's see what the actual pattern brings!

The Dates of Easter - Earliest and Latest

Who said there isn't math in The Bible.

The article is incorrect. Easter falls on a Sunday between March 22 and April 25 from 1753 to 2400. The article is below for you to check out

From "The Economist"...

"...The earliest possible date for Easter occurs when the full moon falls on March 21st itself, in a year in which March 21st falls on a Saturday. Easter is then celebrated on Sunday March 22nd, a rare event that last happened in 1818 and will next take place in 2285. The latest possible date for Easter occurs when there is a full moon on March 20th, so that the first full moon after March 21st falls a lunar month or 29 days later, on April 18th. If April 18th falls on a Sunday, then the special Sunday rule applies, and Easter is celebrated the following Sunday, or April 25th. This last happened in 1943, and will next happen in 2038. There is therefore a 35-day window in which Easter can fall, depending on the timing of the full moon relative to March 21st."

Got it...and that's just the Western Church...phew.

Cleveland March Year-to-Year Comparison

March 27th: FOX8 rooftop photo of Lake Effect clouds pushing south/Cleveland Skyline

I've mentioned several times how this March is almost a polar opposite to last March. Most of the country is seeing well below temperatures all month. Here are the difference between last March and this March comparing temperatures to the averages.

Just how different has the second half of March been compared to last March 15th through the 26th in Cleveland? The drop in temperature this March since the 15th is the greatest drop of any back-to-back Marches in recorded weather history!

Here are the Marches with the largest comparisons year-to-year. How about a 32 degree difference.

Diving into the numbers further, the 3 year comparisons so even more variation. 2011: 41 degrees, last year: 63, this year 31

Its looking better and better for this cold pattern to slowly moderate next week. Stretches of snow-producing cold will be replaced by temps in the 40s. By the way, normal high is 52

Where Does This Winter's Temperatures Rank? Snowfall?

Rittman Snowfall on March 25th

 

 ...not as cold as you might think.

The last several weeks of well below normal temperatures since that one Sunday on the 12th when we
almost hit 70 has skewed our perception of the winter. This is called the "Observational Selection Bias".  This is the effect of suddenly noticing things we didn't notice that much before — but we wrongly assume that the frequency has increased.  This leads us to the RECENCY EFFECT: This is the tendency to think that more recent trends and patterns we observe (which are more recent in our minds) are a very good representation of the entire period. We perceive these biased observations as excellent predictors of what the future will bring.  

How often has someone said to you that this colder trend recently surely means that the rest of the spring will be cold?  That is the RECENCY EFFECT at work .

We averaged the high and low temperatures of each day from December 1st to March 25th for each year since 1871.  Here is the list showing where this winter ranks...surprisingly, its far down on the list of 143 winters.

The 143 year trend is all over the place...

How about snow this year?  It falls somewhere in the middle of the list...

So while we perceive this winter as so cold due to the last few week's weather, this winter sits in the middle of the list both in temperature and in snowfall.

What is Driving this March Cold Spell?

At this point in the winter (now early Spring), we are all getting very annoyed with the cold. A few weeks ago when highs approached 70, the general populous assumed that this signified the end of the cold. The meteorological gods have had other ideas.

So what is driving this cold? The answer lies in the teleconnections derived from the pressure patterns in the higher latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific North American Index (PNA). I wrote extensively about each of these indices last year during our mild winter (2010-11) which you can read here. Even late in the season, these 3 teleconnections can still have a HUGE impact on the weather across the US.  As I write this, we are watching clusters of lake effect snow dropping several inches of "partly cloudy" across parts of the north coast

Back to the THREE indices...the more negative the NAO is, the stronger the northwest component which most times leads to a much stronger cold pattern. The AO is the NAO's close cousin. The more negative the AO, the better the propensity for colder periods and frequent clipper like systems. 

How strong is this NAO signature?  I looked back at Marches that had more than 2 straight days with NAOs below -1.5.  Why did I pick -1.5? Currently, the NAO is well below -1.5 and falling so -1.5 was a good starting point. Checking all of the data, I could only find 6 YEARS that match:  2011, 2001, 1980, 1977, 1962 & 1952.  I didn't use 2001 because those instances occurred in early march.  I plotted the NAO from March 10th through April 4th (to get some data overlap on both ends of the plot) to see if there was a pattern. Notice that in each year, the NAO bottomed out at the end of the month in EACH YEAR. Whether this is a statistical correlation or something more atmospheric, I'm not sure. More analysis would be needed to figure this out.

Where does this year rank in comparison to these years?  WAY BELOW THIS GRAPH. In fact, one model yesterday had the NAO dropping to -4.

Even if this model is a bit aggressive in its NAO forecast, we are still looking at temperatures staying WELL BELOW NORMAL for a while.

Is this cold spell some sort of record for this time of year? Surprisingly, not even close. Here is where this year's cold spell (starting after that warm Sunday a few weeks back) ranks ALL-TIME...How about 40th!

Do March Cold Stretches Lead to Milder Aprils?

Everyone is asking if this abnormally cold pattern will lead to a colder or warmer April?

Let's look at the Aprils of the past statistically after stretches of cold in mid to late March similar to this one.  The coldest stretches between March 15th and 24th were in these years. (So far, this stretch in 2013 (assuming that the extended forecast holds) is ranked 8th coldest.)

How were the temperatures in the following Aprils in these years? Here are the composites for each year. 4 of the 8 occurred before 1910.

APRIL 1906

APRIL 1960

APRIL 1872

APRIL 1885

APRIL 1896

APRIL 1956

APRIL 2006

APRIL 1967

The only years in this list that had COLDER than normal temperatures in NORTHERN OHIO were 1956 and 1885.  So statistically, the chances for an April with ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES after a stretch of cold like what we are experiencing in this part of March are fairly good. Let's hope the actual meteorological pattern matches up.

Why is the Winter Pattern Lingering So Long?

This is the most asked question over the last week or so of northern Ohio residents. March of 2013 is the polar opposite of March of 2012 when we had a handful of 80 degree days en route to the warmest March in 140+ years of record keeping.  So far this March (through the 17th) temperatures rank 67th coldest---right in the middle of the 142 years of record keeping.

I only have a few minutes this morning due to the winter precipitation moving through the area along with my multiple weather segments so I'll keep my analysis brief:

The answer lies within the 3 major indices that govern our patterns. The AO (Arctic Oscillation), the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the PNA (Pacific North American Pattern). Last winter (2011-12) I wrote an extensive explanation on these three teleconnections. You can read it here.

Each index plays a different role at different times of year. In the summer, many of these indices are not as strong. But in March, they can play havoc with the development of spring warmups. The Sunday we had recently with temperatures at 70+ was the one bright spot in this colder than normal pattern.

Recently, these indices that measure the strength of arctic storm patterns (AO, NAO) are strongly negative which mean colder than normal. (graphic courtesy: Dr. Ryan Maue)

The PNA (pacific north american pattern) has been trending positive. All of these keep the NW flow aloft firmly entrenched keeping temperatures well below normal across the eastern US.

Not to worry. The "nickel-and-dime" cold punches WILL end......at some point :)