Severe Weather Update - 2AM THURSDAY

Squall line moving through northern Ohio...but weakening.

Biggest threat will be high winds between 2 and 4AM. Other threat from 2AM until 6AM will be local heavy rainfall between 1 and 2 inches. Flash flooding possible in low lying areas.

Severe thunder storm watch for most of northern and eastern Ohio until 6AM

Severe Weather Update - 5PM

So far, the showers have been scattered with no storms as of yet. This jives with what our forecast was this morning--that is, highlighting the scattered nature of the rain through the early evening then focusing on the main threat which would build mid evening and especially overnight (after midnight).

CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST CURRENT RADAR LOOP

We are still in a slight to moderate risk for severe weather later this evening. The last time any part of Ohio was under a high risk was in October of 2010. Needless to say, it rarely happens in these parts.

This was my summary from earlier this morning. It still holds true:   

1)  Scattered storms this afternoon. Coverage will be 50% with breaks of sun in between. 

EVENING OUTLOOK

2)  Large cluster of heavy rain and storms will develop by mid evening to the west and over most of Ohio after midnight/early Thursday. Here is the current radar loop as of 5PM. I'm already noticing the beginnings of a LARGE COMPLEX IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 

WE NEED TO WATCH THIS!

CLICK HERE FOR THE REFRESHED LOOP

3)  Severe weather threat will be from high winds (50+ mph) and hail. Gusty winds will continue into Thursday AFTER the rain moves out

4) Tonight's rainfall will exceed 1-2" in many areas. Flood Watch for all of northern Ohio for tonight and early Thursday

Today/Tonight's Severe Weather Update

As of 8AM Wednesday morning, a few showers have made it into northwestern Ohio. Most of this rain is outrunning the energy associated with the large scale cluster now developing in the upper midwest.

CURRENT RADAR LOOP IS HERE

The Storm Prediction Center still has western Ohio under a MODERATE risk of severe weather. Remember that the definition of a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM is a storm that has 58 mph winds or greater and/or hail of at least 1 INCH in diameter. 

* Moderate risk for western Ohio *

Wind damage will be the biggest threat along with heavy rain tonight

Any showers and storms that develop ahead of the main cluster this afternoon will be more scattered. Not everyone will see rain and storms this afternoon and early evening. That said, we will need to keep a careful eye on this. Often times, these scattered, fast-moving storms in the late afternoon can rapidly develop into organized clusters by themselves. In fact, one computer projection is showing just that but not until the mid evening.
 

The last complex of rain and storms overnight will be heavy. Rainfall will be significant. Winds will be pushing 30+ mph in spots.

Courtesy: Weatherbell Analytics

To summarize:   

1)  Scattered storms this afternoon. Coverage will be 50% with breaks of sun in between. 
2)  Large cluster of heavy rain and storms will develop by mid evening to the west and over most of Ohio after midnight/early Thursday
3)  Severe weather threat will be from high winds (50+ mph) and hail 
4) Tonight's rainfall will exceed 1-2" in many areas. Flood Watch for all of northern Ohio for tonight and early Thursday

Wednesday's Severe Threat - Derecho Perhaps?

After looking at the severe weather parameters along with the SPC's severe weather outlook for tomorrow, the threat for severe storms later tomorrow and into the evening is more than just a passing thought for northern Indiana and most of Ohio.

The storms will occur in large clusters moving from west to southeast along the front where the best convergence will develop.

WSI's RPM model in its future reflectivity output illustrates what the radar might look like tomorrow late afternoon/early evening

If you recall, last year around this time, a Derecho developed along the same latitude that storms will fire up late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Due to their uncertain and progressive nature driven by changes in the storm clusters magnified on the larger scale, the position and direction of derechos are difficult to forecast.

Here was the SPC severe risk area last year before the Derecho ON THE LEFT versus tomorrow risk area.

 What is tomorrow's bottom line?  If these storms track through northern Ohio, anticipate wind gusts of 50+ mph with rainfall amounts between 1 and 2" in local areas. Anticipate sunshine between these storm clusters. Power outages are also a reality.

Muckleheads from Lake Erie Are Invading!

"Muckleheads" are insects that hatch from Lake Erie in the late spring each year and push inland. They don't bite; they are just an annoyance. I wrote about them a few years ago. Here is the link.

Some video I took this morning of the coating of bugs on the front of the station


This morning, they invaded the front yard!

FOX8 Front yard with bugs on the wall

I won't be calling for help. The muckleheads are invading the intercom!

I can't turn the lights off...

I can't text or email anyone. The muckleheads have hijacked the wi-fi

So what is a weather guy to do? Absolutely nothing but pick the bugs out of one's teeth :)

The Impatience of Blog Readers

http://procrastinatingwritersblog.com

I ran across this great article on the behavior of the readers of blogs. After reading this--the entire article--it got me thinking that this occurs many times as people read my blog for reasons that I will write about later.
This article on Slate shows that most of blog readers rarely have the patience to read an entire piece yet they will share the article on Facebook or on Twitter. In keeping with the findings that are illustrated in this article (which states that a good percentage of you won't scroll down to read beyond the first page of an article) I will bullet-point what the article summerized:

"Only a small number of you are reading all the way through articles on the Web...many smart-alecks jump in to the comments to make points that get mentioned later in the piece."

""Of the 100 of you who didn’t bounce (click away from the article), five are never going to scroll. Bye!..."  Some sites have a higher share of people—10 percent—that never scroll."

"Chartbeat’s data shows that most readers scroll to about the 50 percent mark, or the 1,000th pixel, in Slate stories..."




Are you one of these reader who comment on articles without reading them entirely? Hmmmm....

Friday Morning Update: 8 day forecast, Cool June & T.S. Andrea

Its finally Friday and my voice is going due to allergies. Its frustrating having a weakened voice due to congestion when the rest of you feels fine. I'll give it a few days to clear up as I always do in the spring when this happens. Sigh.....

In the mean time, I figure a post with a myriad of weather elements would take my mind off of my voice. Luckily, we have a bunch of topics to cover this morning.  First, here is the 8 day forecast for northern Ohio. Notice the absence of 80 degree warmth. This time of year, I am always apprehensive about running an 8 day forecast with a string of 70s. The extended models have been flipping back and forth on the strength of the mid west warmth for next week. Given their inconsistencies and the strength of June sunshine, an 80 degree high in this environment is ALWAYS possible. Rather than bounce back and forth, I like the numbers to stay consistent until the pattern becomes more definitive.

This "cool" start to June has happened in a long time right? Not really. Here is the list of years that had "cooler" starts to June. This year isn't close to the top of the list. We've had 4 years with cooler starts to June since 2000!

Rainfall across northern Ohio has been feast or famine. Shoreline communities from just east of Cleveland to Ashtabula is running well above normal (3-5" in spots) over the last month. Whereas most other locations are running near normal to almost an inch below normal even with the rainfall yesterday (Friday June 6th).

Now the tropical storm....Andrea continue to fly up the eastern seaboard at almost 30 mph producing heavy rainfall from the Carolinas to New York and Boston over the next 48 hours.

One quick Andrea forecast element I just noticed was the GFS long range forecast for Andrea. It takes its  remains over Greenland. While this could be an outlier, its fun to think that tropical remains could finish over a typically arctic location. Its happened with other tropical storms like Hurricane Faith back in 1966....its just wild to see in a model projection.  I like extremes!

Have a good weekend!

Hurricanes: Frequently Asked Questions

Hurricane season officially started last Saturday. The National Hurricane Center updated their hurricane season forecast. It continues to highlight above average activity. One lone storm could develop further this weekend.

This usually brings up many of the same questions about hurricanes and hurricane season. Rather than answer each question as they are received, here is a substantial list of questions that I've received over the years WITH answers with some help from NOAA's hurricane FAQ page.

If you have a question that's not listed here, feel free to send me an EMAIL, TWEET OR FACEBOOK MESSAGE

QUESTION #1: When it rains inside a hurricane, is it salt water?

No. When the water evaporates from the ocean, it leaves behind the salt.

QUESTION #2: Who names tropical storms? When did they start naming them?

In 1945, the military started naming Pacific storms with women's names. From 1950 to 1952, tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean were identified by the phonetic alphabet (Able-Baker-Charlie...). But in 1953 the US Weather Bureau switched to women's names solely. In 1979, the World Meteorological Organization began naming storms using a list that alternates between men's and women's names.

QUESTION #3: What happens when they run out of names in a specific year?

The Greek alphabet will be used (alpha, beta, gamma, delta...etc)  This happened in 2005 when we went 7 names deep into the Greek alphabet. That storm was named 'Zeta".

QUESTION #4: What names have been retired?

Here is the list: Audrey 1957, Agnes 1972, Anita 1977, Allen 1980, Alicia 1983, Andrew 1992, Allison 2001, Betsy 1965, Beulah 1967, Bob 1991, Connie 1955 ,Carla 1961, Cleo 1964, Carol 1965, Camille 1969, Celia 1970, Carmen 1974, Cesar 1996, Charley 2004, Diane 1955, Donna 1960, Dora 1964, David 1979, Diana 1990, Dennis 2005, Dean 2007, Edna 1968, Eloise 1975, Elena 1985, Flora 1963, Fifi 1974, Frederic 1979, Fran 1996, Floyd 1999, Fabian 2003, Frances 2004, Felix 2007, Gracie 1959, Gloria 1985, Gilbert 1988, Georges 1998, Gustav 2008
Hazel 1954, Hattie 1961, Hilda 1964, Hugo 1989,Hortense 1996, Ione 1955, Inez 1966, Iris 2001, Isidore 2002, Isabel 2003, Ivan 2004, Ike 2008,Igor 2010, Irene 2011, Janet 1955, Joan 1988, Juan 2003, Jeanne 2004, Klaus 1990, Keith 2000, Katrina 2005, Luis 1995, Lenny 1999, Lili 2002, Marilyn 1995, Mitch 1998, Michelle 2001, Noel 2007, Opal 1995, Paloma 2008, Roxanne 1995, Rita 2005, Stan 2005, Tomas 2010, Wilma 2005

QUESTION #5:  What happens if a storm cross from the Atlantic to Pacific or Pacific to Atlantic...is it renamed?

If the storm remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America (Atlantic to Pacific or vise versa) then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the NHC give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again.
QUESTION #6: Why can't we use a nuclear bomb to dissipate the hurricane?

NOAA has a detailed explanation: "A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy at a rate of 5 to 20x10^13 watts". This is equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity!..."

That is the energy created from the condensation of water vapor molecules into water droplets. When you consider that 1/2" of rainfall per day over a 360 mile radius from the center, you can understand the power generation of a hurricane. NOAA continues...

"...This is equivalent to the heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes! In addition, an explosive, even a nuclear explosive, produces a shock wave, or pulse of high pressure, that propagates away from the site of the explosion somewhat faster than the speed of sound. Such an event doesn't raise the barometric pressure after the shock has passed because barometric pressure in the atmosphere reflects the weight of the air above the ground. For normal atmospheric pressure, there are about ten metric tons (1000 kilograms per ton) of air bearing down on each square meter of surface. In the strongest hurricanes there are nine. To change a Category 5 hurricane into a Category 2 hurricane you would have to add about a half ton of air for each square meter inside the eye, or a total of a bit more than half a billion (500,000,000) tons for a 20 km radius eye. It's difficult to envision a practical way of moving that much air around."  

Basically, it can't be done!

QUESTION #7: STORM RECORDS...

What is the fastest a storm intensified?

Hurricane Wilma in 2005 went from 954 mb to 901 mb in a 5 hour 23 minute period for a 9.8 mb/hr pressure drop. The winds went from 150 mph to 184 mph in 5 in that period.
What was the lowest hurricane pressure ever recorded?

Typhoon Tip in the Northwest Pacific Ocean on 12 October 1979 was measured to have a central pressure of 870 mb.
Hurricane Wilma's 882 mb lowest pressure (estimated from a dropsonde) in 2005 is the most intense for the Atlantic basin.

What was the strongest wind ever recorded in a tropical cyclone?

Tropical Cyclone Olivia off the coast of Australia on April 10, 1996 sets the new world record for the Highest surface wind speed with a gust at 253.5 mph
Typhoon Nancy on 12 September, 1961 located in the Northwest Pacific region has estimated maximum sustained winds of 213 mph.
Hurricane Camille (1969) and Hurricane Allen (1980) have had winds that are estimated to be 190 mph.
What was the largest hurricane?

Typhoon Tip had gale force winds (39 mph) which extended out for 675 miles from the radius in the Northwest Pacific on 12 October, 1979,  It was half the size of the continental United States!

What tropical storm lasted the longest?

What has been the deadliest hurricanes for the US?

A great list created by Chris Landsea at NOAA
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E12.html

What is the total number of storms through 2012?

Why doesn't the South Atlantic Ocean experience tropical cyclones?

It has happened. Once in 2004 off of the coast of Brazil. The other was a disturbance off the coast of Africa in April of 1991. The region south of the equator has no convergence zone that promotes "spin" for thunderstorm development necessary for large scale tropical systems. The wind sheer is much too great.

Hurricane Season Begins!

Hurricane season officially starts on June 1st. The National Hurricane Center updated their hurricane season forecast. It continues to highlight above average activity. Here is this year's forecast with comparisons to average and last year:

Why the increase?  First, no El Nino this year.  El Nino's lead to stronger steering current with act to shear apart storms as they develop. 1997 was a great example!

This year, the upper level winds will be more favorable for storms. 

Second, since the mid 1990s, the Atlantic Ocean has been in a "warm mode".  This warm mode is part of a cycle called the AMO or Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. This oscillation switches every (20-40 years).

When its positive or warm, the storms make landfall along the US coast more frequently.

The other more short-term variable is the current water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and atlantic ocean. Notice how warm these waters are running this early in the season. This favors early season storm development along the Gulf Coast and Florida.

In fact, the GFS is showing some development in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Something to watch for sure!

Why Can't We Handle Probability in Weather Forecasts?

Our minds don't easily handle probability. Complex systems like the global economy, the financial sector, ecosystems or quantum mechanics are riddled with counter-intuitive randomness. We can visualize the movement of an electron as a point particle flying around a nucleus of an atom. Yet the real picture is filled with uncertainty. The electron's existence is a hazy cloud of probability. Its nature is not just a particle but BOTH a particle AND a wave! Say what? 

Much of our human experience is filled with such truths. We especially hate probabilities in our weather forecasts. Why? For our minds to grasp probabilities, we need to be able to handle multiple possible outcomes at once. Just our luck, weather has many, many outcomes over a large area over a significant period of time. Change the initial weather conditions (humidity, wind flow, frontal position, upper level energy, etc) and you create more uncertainty. Factor in time and the probability becomes significantly higher.

Typically, our brains work much better with a theme that is linear: A story that has a beginning, middle and an end. We want to visualize a line of showers that moves in at a specific time, stays for a select amount of time and then moves out without fanfare. Unfortunately, rain events rarely behave in this manner.

Here is a quick radar loop from May 28, 2013. Notice the disjointed nature of the rain/storm clusters and how they evolve. Some smaller cell develop independently of the main cluster. I guarantee that by the time they made it to Ohio, they looked nothing like what you are seeing here.

The radar loop above is an excellent example of why—much to the chagrin of the general public—probabilities are the only way to tell the weather story. We use 90% chance of rain, 40% chance of rain, etc. Yet if it doesn't rain over their house when the probability is 90% chance of rain, the forecaster is wrong even if the rest of the area was hit with a good downpour. We want to know if it will rain or not; a black and white scenario without caveats. Yet the behavior of some small scale weather events like warm frontal rain/storms can behave semi-independently of the overall large scale pattern. I’ve tried multiple times to convey this idea on the air. The explanation of small scale rain clusters as behaving somewhat “on their own” falls on deaf ears.

It all goes back to basic human nature. A good weather narrative (a feel-good forecast with some folklore) is desired versus something data/science driven. Nebulous weather data and science makes most of us feel uncomfortable even if the on-air meteorologist has the best of intentions. We have created some sophisticated models of the weather that can make some very good “probabilistic” outcomes for weather events and situations. Yet a level of uncertainty still remains and we humans don’t like it!  We try to rationalize the irrational. Our biases quickly dismiss the probabilistic science as irrelevant or at the very worst, an excuse.

Instead, we favor more simplified stories even though that story might gloss over important details. Our minds involuntarily cherry-pick elements of the story so that it fits our biases. Think of a time when someone told you a weather fact or forecast which you didn’t believe. You felt uneasy. Your mind shrugged it aside only to be replaced by a story, forecast or explanation that made you feel better…accuracy be damned.

A great financial blog called The Big Picture written by Barry Ritholtz explains the narrative vs data idea succinctly: (I inserted the weather components)

* Narratives (straight forward simple weather forecasts) are about hitting emotional buttons making the reader feel good by focusing on less qualitative aspects (weather science and probability) of an issue.

* Narratives (weather forecast) are/is about the outcome not the process (explanation of the science and probability)

* The process (weather science) is important in developing solid results

 So remember the psychology. How you react when you hear a weather forecast?  Do you dismiss the science? How do you handle probability?  Do you like hearing an explanation to why the weather does what it does? Do you overly simplify the weather? Are you aware of your biases?

The science of the atmosphere is never as straight forward as we'd like it to be…and never will.