25 Year Ago: 104 Degree Heat in Cleveland!

I remember the hot and dry summer of 1988 vividly. My lawn mowing business took a HUGE hit. After mowing lawn at a record pace in April and May, everything came to a stand still by June and never really recovered until September. By then, it was too late to re coop the losses.

That was also my first time experiencing 100+ degree heat. Sure, it was a "dry heat". But 100 degrees is 100 degrees! Today marks the 25th anniversary of the HOTTEST DAY IN CLEVELAND HISTORY when we reached 104 degrees that late afternoon on the 25th of June.

What is interesting about June of 1988 was not only the all-time recording setting heat which we all remember but the cold nights!

First, we set 4 record highs that month leading up to the 104 on the 25th...

Check this out: We had 7 nights in the 40s. The 2 nights in the 40s at the end of the month were RECORD LOWS!

The drought had a lot to do with this. Humidity levels that summer were low so large variations from day to night were more common.

Its an interesting case study. When you look at the occurrences of 100 degree heat in June---only two other times (1944 and 1934)--they featured no instance of record low temperatures! 

This really shows the severity of the drought during the summer of 1988.

Why is this early summer pattern different than 2012? More 90s in store?

In March at The Ohio State Weather Symposium, I  presented a paper on the conditions that preceded the Drought of 2012 and how those conditions set the stage for the summer of 2012. You can scroll through my POWERPOINT here. Its loaded with graphics that give a chronology leading up to last summer.

Last summer and the summers before it (2011 and 2010) are still fresh in everyone's mind. All three were above normal. Each one featured different degrees of heat. 2010 & 2011 had consistent heat. Last summer featured about 3 solid weeks of oppressive heat in late June and early July with 28 days in the 90s by mid September.  So its nature to think that this summer will be just as hot right? Not necessarily.  Why is this summer setting up to be different than last summer?  The answer lies partially in the amount and location of the spring rains.

Take a look at the Long Term Drought Indicator. This map blends a bunch of variables to include soil moisture, short term and long term precipitation, ground water and reservoir water levels. Last year's indicator for late June is on the left; this year is on the right.

The corn belt was in serious trouble last year with dry conditions that carried over from the winter before (SEE MY POWER POINT) while this year, above normal spring rains across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and parts of Missouri are in great shape. Spring heat was absent so evaporation of soil moisture didn't occur as rapidly as it did in 2012. Look at the temperatures from March through May in 2012 and this year: POLAR OPPOSITES!

Evaporation was lower, rainfall in spring was above normal. The above normal rainfall for much of June this year has stayed above normal versus last June.

So what does ABOVE NORMAL SPRING RAIN, COOLER SPRING TEMPS AND HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE MEAN for our summer pattern? Last summer, the central US drought feed the heat which strengthened the ridge of high pressure which worsened the drought....etc. It was a huge drought/heat feedback loop with no end in sight.

This year, with WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN SPRING AND EARLY JUNE along with other pattern changes globally, the chances for a huge heat dome to develop in the center of the US and across Ohio are considerably smaller than last summer. The wet ground will reduce the propensity for the heat dome to develop. So far, the core of the heat has stayed out west with only small bursts of 90 degree heat across Ohio so far.

Remember that almost 50% of our 90 degree days occur in July so we have a lot of summer left.

More than half of the summers since 1980 have had less than 10 days above 90.

What's the bottom line?

1. This summer is starting out much different than the summer of 2012. 

2. The soil conditions and accumulative rainfall in the central US and across Ohio are far better.

3. They favor more frequent breaks from the 90 degree heat into the first 10 days of July. As long as we continue with frequent rainfall, this pattern could stick around longer. We'll watch carefully as we head into 4th of July week and beyond!

Wall Cloud Photos, Muckelheads, Mayflies

Yesterday was a textbook example of what I like to call "potent yet widely scattered storms." Many believe the phrase "scattered storms" is an indicator of intensity. In reality, the word "scattered" is referring to how much of the area will see storms not how strong the rain/wind. For those who saw storms, they were certainly potent!

Rainfall resembled a monsoon in some areas (2"+)  while other spots didn't receive a drop.

Andre Bernier took this panoramic photo from on top of the FOX8 roof as the wall cloud moved closer.

He also posted this time lapse as it moved inland.

Several other wall cloud photos from across the area.

Wall cloud from Sunday's storm

And last but certainly not least, the two insects we've been covering recently. Both are harmless; each look VERY different.

Finally, the mayfly invasion on an ATM in Sheffield Lake

Severe Weather Update - 2AM THURSDAY

Squall line moving through northern Ohio...but weakening.

Biggest threat will be high winds between 2 and 4AM. Other threat from 2AM until 6AM will be local heavy rainfall between 1 and 2 inches. Flash flooding possible in low lying areas.

Severe thunder storm watch for most of northern and eastern Ohio until 6AM

Severe Weather Update - 5PM

So far, the showers have been scattered with no storms as of yet. This jives with what our forecast was this morning--that is, highlighting the scattered nature of the rain through the early evening then focusing on the main threat which would build mid evening and especially overnight (after midnight).

CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST CURRENT RADAR LOOP

We are still in a slight to moderate risk for severe weather later this evening. The last time any part of Ohio was under a high risk was in October of 2010. Needless to say, it rarely happens in these parts.

This was my summary from earlier this morning. It still holds true:   

1)  Scattered storms this afternoon. Coverage will be 50% with breaks of sun in between. 

EVENING OUTLOOK

2)  Large cluster of heavy rain and storms will develop by mid evening to the west and over most of Ohio after midnight/early Thursday. Here is the current radar loop as of 5PM. I'm already noticing the beginnings of a LARGE COMPLEX IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 

WE NEED TO WATCH THIS!

CLICK HERE FOR THE REFRESHED LOOP

3)  Severe weather threat will be from high winds (50+ mph) and hail. Gusty winds will continue into Thursday AFTER the rain moves out

4) Tonight's rainfall will exceed 1-2" in many areas. Flood Watch for all of northern Ohio for tonight and early Thursday

Today/Tonight's Severe Weather Update

As of 8AM Wednesday morning, a few showers have made it into northwestern Ohio. Most of this rain is outrunning the energy associated with the large scale cluster now developing in the upper midwest.

CURRENT RADAR LOOP IS HERE

The Storm Prediction Center still has western Ohio under a MODERATE risk of severe weather. Remember that the definition of a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM is a storm that has 58 mph winds or greater and/or hail of at least 1 INCH in diameter. 

* Moderate risk for western Ohio *

Wind damage will be the biggest threat along with heavy rain tonight

Any showers and storms that develop ahead of the main cluster this afternoon will be more scattered. Not everyone will see rain and storms this afternoon and early evening. That said, we will need to keep a careful eye on this. Often times, these scattered, fast-moving storms in the late afternoon can rapidly develop into organized clusters by themselves. In fact, one computer projection is showing just that but not until the mid evening.
 

The last complex of rain and storms overnight will be heavy. Rainfall will be significant. Winds will be pushing 30+ mph in spots.

Courtesy: Weatherbell Analytics

To summarize:   

1)  Scattered storms this afternoon. Coverage will be 50% with breaks of sun in between. 
2)  Large cluster of heavy rain and storms will develop by mid evening to the west and over most of Ohio after midnight/early Thursday
3)  Severe weather threat will be from high winds (50+ mph) and hail 
4) Tonight's rainfall will exceed 1-2" in many areas. Flood Watch for all of northern Ohio for tonight and early Thursday

Wednesday's Severe Threat - Derecho Perhaps?

After looking at the severe weather parameters along with the SPC's severe weather outlook for tomorrow, the threat for severe storms later tomorrow and into the evening is more than just a passing thought for northern Indiana and most of Ohio.

The storms will occur in large clusters moving from west to southeast along the front where the best convergence will develop.

WSI's RPM model in its future reflectivity output illustrates what the radar might look like tomorrow late afternoon/early evening

If you recall, last year around this time, a Derecho developed along the same latitude that storms will fire up late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Due to their uncertain and progressive nature driven by changes in the storm clusters magnified on the larger scale, the position and direction of derechos are difficult to forecast.

Here was the SPC severe risk area last year before the Derecho ON THE LEFT versus tomorrow risk area.

 What is tomorrow's bottom line?  If these storms track through northern Ohio, anticipate wind gusts of 50+ mph with rainfall amounts between 1 and 2" in local areas. Anticipate sunshine between these storm clusters. Power outages are also a reality.

Muckleheads from Lake Erie Are Invading!

"Muckleheads" are insects that hatch from Lake Erie in the late spring each year and push inland. They don't bite; they are just an annoyance. I wrote about them a few years ago. Here is the link.

Some video I took this morning of the coating of bugs on the front of the station


This morning, they invaded the front yard!

FOX8 Front yard with bugs on the wall

I won't be calling for help. The muckleheads are invading the intercom!

I can't turn the lights off...

I can't text or email anyone. The muckleheads have hijacked the wi-fi

So what is a weather guy to do? Absolutely nothing but pick the bugs out of one's teeth :)

The Impatience of Blog Readers

http://procrastinatingwritersblog.com

I ran across this great article on the behavior of the readers of blogs. After reading this--the entire article--it got me thinking that this occurs many times as people read my blog for reasons that I will write about later.
This article on Slate shows that most of blog readers rarely have the patience to read an entire piece yet they will share the article on Facebook or on Twitter. In keeping with the findings that are illustrated in this article (which states that a good percentage of you won't scroll down to read beyond the first page of an article) I will bullet-point what the article summerized:

"Only a small number of you are reading all the way through articles on the Web...many smart-alecks jump in to the comments to make points that get mentioned later in the piece."

""Of the 100 of you who didn’t bounce (click away from the article), five are never going to scroll. Bye!..."  Some sites have a higher share of people—10 percent—that never scroll."

"Chartbeat’s data shows that most readers scroll to about the 50 percent mark, or the 1,000th pixel, in Slate stories..."




Are you one of these reader who comment on articles without reading them entirely? Hmmmm....

Friday Morning Update: 8 day forecast, Cool June & T.S. Andrea

Its finally Friday and my voice is going due to allergies. Its frustrating having a weakened voice due to congestion when the rest of you feels fine. I'll give it a few days to clear up as I always do in the spring when this happens. Sigh.....

In the mean time, I figure a post with a myriad of weather elements would take my mind off of my voice. Luckily, we have a bunch of topics to cover this morning.  First, here is the 8 day forecast for northern Ohio. Notice the absence of 80 degree warmth. This time of year, I am always apprehensive about running an 8 day forecast with a string of 70s. The extended models have been flipping back and forth on the strength of the mid west warmth for next week. Given their inconsistencies and the strength of June sunshine, an 80 degree high in this environment is ALWAYS possible. Rather than bounce back and forth, I like the numbers to stay consistent until the pattern becomes more definitive.

This "cool" start to June has happened in a long time right? Not really. Here is the list of years that had "cooler" starts to June. This year isn't close to the top of the list. We've had 4 years with cooler starts to June since 2000!

Rainfall across northern Ohio has been feast or famine. Shoreline communities from just east of Cleveland to Ashtabula is running well above normal (3-5" in spots) over the last month. Whereas most other locations are running near normal to almost an inch below normal even with the rainfall yesterday (Friday June 6th).

Now the tropical storm....Andrea continue to fly up the eastern seaboard at almost 30 mph producing heavy rainfall from the Carolinas to New York and Boston over the next 48 hours.

One quick Andrea forecast element I just noticed was the GFS long range forecast for Andrea. It takes its  remains over Greenland. While this could be an outlier, its fun to think that tropical remains could finish over a typically arctic location. Its happened with other tropical storms like Hurricane Faith back in 1966....its just wild to see in a model projection.  I like extremes!

Have a good weekend!