Friday, October 18, 2013

Friday's Miscellaneous Meteorology


Its Friday and its time for some miscellaneous meteorology tid-bits. An eclectic blend, if you will, of current weather topics with handy charts and colorful pictures. So settle in and get ready to jump around a bit as I clean off my desktop of all the jpegs I've been working on this week.

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Cold weather is coming next week. The 500mB map shows a huge trough in the east and a ridge in the west. Also, the Greenland Block is present which will only aid in strengthening the eastern trough into November.
What a difference when you compare the first two weeks of October to the last two weeks upcoming.


Could we see wet snow IN SPOTS at the end of next week? You bet...

How many days do we typically have each winter with 6 inches or more of snow on the ground in Cleveland? Only 6 last year, 40 back in the winter of 2009-2010.

What decade had more days with at least 1/2" of snow on the ground in Cleveland? I checked the numbers for each decade since the 1910s. The 1970s were the snowiest followed by the 2000s (2000 through 2009)!
2013 continues to feature record low tornado numbers.
This is the first tropical season since 1994 where the Atlantic has NOT had a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater). If this trend continues, it would be the first season since 1968 where the Atlantic and Pacific (east of the International Dateline) have not had a major hurricane!


Could we still see warmer days? Historically, it happens a few times after October 17th and before the end of November. We had 4 last year. Over the last 30 years, we've only had 3 instances where the daytime highs never went about 70 in late October and early November in northern Ohio.


Monday, October 14, 2013

Will the Warm Fall Slow The Cooling of Lake Erie?

Photo: Benzclub.org

Last year, a similar question was asked on the heals of the incredibly warm summer of 2012. I did some quick checking of the lake water temperature data and compared 2012 to other recent summers. READ MY FULL POST HERE That research showed the lake seems to cool at relatively the same rate from September through November.

Will the lake cool similarly this year? 

The overall summer temperatures were very close to average. Yet the air temperatures this fall--since September 22nd--have been very warm, 5th warmest in 50- years!   Common sense would seem to point to a warmer lake later in the fall season. So I checked the Lake Erie water temperatures in the years with early fall warmth WARMER than this year.  The remaining years in the top 5 warmest (since 1964) are 1973, 2007, 1986 an 2005.

Data  Courtesy: NWS, Dick Goddard
It seems the Lake cools at about the same rate in each of these years. The differences year to year are very small.  By early December, the water temperatures differences are only a few degrees. In fact, in 1973, the WARMEST early fall in the last 50 years, the lake cooled FASTER then the other years in question only to level off in the last two weeks of November. 

How do these temperatures compared to other random years?  Check my blog post listed above and you'll find the water temperatures for 2010, 2009 and 2001.  The cooling is very similar to the above years.

So what does all of this mean?  Many factors contribute to the cooling of the lake like RUN OFF from heavy rain and THUNDERSTORM EVENTS and general lake circulation. 

Will lake effect snow be affected this year? Probably not. The lake seems to balance out the other external factors by the time we need to worry about lake effect snow.  The severity of the cold air moving over the lake and the strength of the wind (among some other) are more of a contributing factor.



Friday, October 11, 2013

Behavioral Meteorology: The Warm Weather is Playing With Our Minds!



Our biases can undermine how we look at everything.  We all have a bias about something as much as we deny it. So we trick ourselves into believing that our decisions are solely rational ones. Our human nature is an exercise in self-deception. Many financial gurus have taken up behavioral economics (see here and here and here) in an effort to nail down how our addiction to narratives (good stories vs information) and our built in biases affect our decision making on investing.

What does weather come into all of this? I like to call it "Behavioral Meteorology" (I might be the first to coin this new discipline...probably not). Here's is an example that I guarantee has happened thousands of time in the last several days:

"Everyone is ready for the weather bottom to fall out.  We're now in the midst of one of the warmest early fall stretches in recent years so our inner thermostats are a bit skewed. This early October warmth has lead to speculation of what this winter will be like.  We scrounge up our distant memories of winters gone by and start making comparisons to what lead up to the winter in question. In the span of minutes, we create a stripped down analog of what this winter might be like using what information we have. The results are everything from "this winter will be very cold and snowy" to "this winter will be mild like the last few winters." We get preemptively testy. We fear the unknown winter. We start to question the weather forecasts more than usual. We jump to irrational conclusions..."

No surprise with any of this. We've all done this.

Its Behavioral Meteorology at its finest. The psychology (which I wrote about HERE) goes like this:



Transition seasons are very hard to take both physically and mentally. Our preconceived notion of Decembers and Januaries featuring snow and cold have been replaced with rain and milder air. These changes don't sit well. It makes us feel uneasy holding onto these conflicting ideas.  Psychologists call this "Cognitive Dissonance". How many times recently have you had a conversation with someone and they said, “What is the deal with this crazy weather…what is going on here?” The uneasiness in the question is palpable.

No one likes to feel uncertain or conflicted.  Weather most times exists in a perpetual "grey" area. It’s this built in randomness that causes frustration and conflict. Most of the time, we grossly underestimate the significance of randomness. We all have a built in motivation to reduce conflicting ideas by altering the existing conditions in our mind to create consistency. 

In the case of understanding the weather, we do this by 1) either believing the weather information which best fits our comfort level or 2) we alter its importance in our mind or 3) we just plain criticize it. Sometimes, it’s a blend of all three. This inclination to favor information that reinforces our comfort level is called a "Confirmation Bias". The problem is that by creating "consistency" through favoring information , we create a new false interpretation of the weather which we believe to be true. Rather than looking objectively at the reasons for the change scientifically (science scares people), most people tend to use an overly simplified and often inaccurate scientific explanation of the weather to ultimately confirm their predispositions. For events that require object analysis, our own human nature deceives us.  In this case, our biases "cloud"--no pun intended--our judgment of the weather. 



So as we transition to the winter season and the temperatures start to fall and we see our first snow, remember your biases and how they work in deceiving the way you look at the weather and the forecast.

Our therapy session is over.  Have a great weekend!

Wednesday, October 02, 2013

MLB Playoffs: Progressive Field Photo Gallery

In between live shots this morning, I had the chance to roam the stadium and take pictures from some unique vantage points.


Panoramic view from the left field side
Mustard, Ketchup and Onion wandering the stands
View from the left field foul pole
Tunnel out to the outfield bleacher
The fantastic view from John Adams Perch high atop the left field bleachers





Panoramic shot from the 3rd base dugout

Steps from the dugout to home plate

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Snow in October?



October is here.  This allows me more flexibility in saying the word "snow" since technically it has snowed in October. So I take full advantage of this just to see who is paying attention.  The first few mentions of snow invariably invokes painful emotions and memories of winters gone by followed by sharp, poignant responses which run the gamut of colorful adjectives.  Depending on your age, these memories might start with the Blizzard(s) of 1978.  Maybe the Thanksgiving snowstorm of 1950 has a deeper resonance.  Maybe its the Blizzard of 1993 or the grand daddy of all snows: The Lake Effect Event of November of 1996 when Chardon, Ohio received almost 70 inches of snow in a few days.

Bottom line is this: Most people don't particularly like snow.  The level of disdain for frozen precipitation in these parts is on par with other evils of the world.  At least frozen precipitation melts and disappears.

What are the snowiest Octobers in Cleveland history? Here is the list. REMEMBER THAT THESE AMOUNTS ARE TAKEN AT HOPKINS AIRPORT


Here are the daily instances of October snowfall with the date and amount.  The snowiest month was in 1962. The earliest snow was in 2003.  Both are colored in blue.

2008 
10/29  0.3"       2003  10/2    0.3"
2001  10/26  1.0"       2000  10/8    0.1"
1993  10/31  0.2"       1981  10/19  3.8"
           10/23  0.2"      1979  10/25  0.2"
1976  10/26  1.5"
           10/27  0.1"     
1974  10/2     0.1"
           10/19  1.4"
1972  10/18   1.4"
           10/19   4.1"

1969  10/22   0.6"     1967   10/28  0.1"
1962  10/25  1.3"
           10/26  6.7"
 
  
  1957  10/27   2.5"
1954  10/16   0.3"
           10/30   2.0"
           10/31   4.1"     1952  10/20   0.8"
1937  10/24   1.0"      1935  10/4     0.3"
1934  10/27   0.3"
           10/28   0.5"     1932  10/18   0.2"
1925  10/22   0.3"
           10/28   0.7"
           10/30   0.8"   
1909  10/12   0.2"
           10/16   0.4"
1906  10/10   4.2"
           10/11   1.2"
           10/31   0.8"     1905  10/12   0.8"
1895  10/20   0.1"
           10/21   0.2"     1893  10/30   0.2"

Back in 2006, we just missed a MAJOR snow event.  Check out this radar loop from October 12, 2006 when Buffalo received 2 feet of snow in the middle of October. So it can happen...hopefully not this year!


Tuesday, September 24, 2013

The New Look MLB Leaderboards


Have you checked the MLB active leaderboards on baseball-reference lately?  Take a good look this week because by the start of the 2014 season, many names will be absent from the lists.

Todd Helton's name will be the most conspicuous by its absence on the top 10 of most offensive statistics.  Factor in the suspension of Miguel Tejada, and the most likely retirement of Jason Giambi, Lance Berkman and Manny Ramirez and the set of names on the top ten leaderboards for offense becomes a bit surprising at first glance.  (Who thought Adrian Beltre was this high on the lists. He's quietly having a pretty good career)

Here is what the leaderboards MIGHT look like at the start of 2014 with each players' debut year. Scary thought when you consider that a good number of players debuted this century! 

PLATE APPEARANCES

1995  Jeter (39)           11968
1994  A-Rod (37)        11336
1998  Beltre (34)           9359
2001  Suzuki (39)          9265
1997  Konerko (37)       9265
1998  Beltran (36)         8937
2000  Rollins (34)         8877
2000  Young (36)          8599
2001  Pujols (33)          8546
2000  Hunter (37)         8526

RUNS


A-Rod                 1919
Jeter                    1876
Pujols                  1425
Beltran                1345
Suzuki                1260
Rollins                1244
Ortiz (37)           1203
Beltre                 1172
Hunter                1158
Konerko             1146

HITS

Jeter                   3316
A-Rod               2939
Suzuki               2738
Beltre                2419
Young                2374
Pujols                2347
Konerko            2295
Beltran              2226
Pierre (35)         2216
Rollins               2169

HOMERUNS

A-Rod                    654
Pujols                    492
Dunn (33)              438
Konerko                433
Ortiz                      430
Soriano                 406
Beltre                    374
Cabrera (30)         365
Beltran                  358
A-Ramirez (35)    354

DOUBLES

Jeter                   525
Pujols                524
A-Rod               519
Ortiz                  519
Beltre                493
Soriano             465
Rollins              454
Beltran              445
A-Ramirez        441
Young               440

TOTAL BASES


A-Rod          5480
Jeter             4739
Pujols           4377
Beltre           4094
Konerko       4012
Beltran         3899
Ortiz            3862
Soriano        3787
Hunter         3623
A-Ramirez   3590

RBI

A-Rod          1969
Pujols           1498
Ortiz             1424
Konerko       1389
Beltran         1327
Beltre           1304
A-Ramirez   1276
Jeter             1261
Cabrera        1260
Hunter         1226

WALKS
Dunn           1245
A-Rod         1238
Ortiz            1085
Pujols          1067
Jeter             1047
Beltran         933
Konerko       910
Carlos Pena  813
Cabrera        799
Teixeira        754

Monday, September 23, 2013

FINAL Summer Recap - JUNE 21st thru Sept 22nd

Now that summer is official over, let's compare the actual days of this summer (full days: June 21st through September 22nd) to summers of the past. Maybe this final assessment will answer a few questions and dispel some perceptions that most of us had about this summer.

1. Was this summer as cool as what we thought?

2. Was the summer of 2013 one of the rainiest?

3. How did this summer rank when compared to recent summers?


I chose to compare 2013 to each summer since 1973 since a 40 year period is more recent in our memory. Since 1973 (last 41 summers), the summer of 2013 ranked 12th warmest. (The summers of 2005, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were warmer)


Interestingly, 21 of the last 40 summers have been COOLER than this summer!

How about the number of days below 75 degrees over the last 40 years? Surely, this past summer ranks high on the list over the last 40 right?  Nope.  

2013 had 26 days below 75 degrees which ranks 20TH!

Rainfall was a different story this summer. Summer of 2013 ranked 10th ALL-TIME in rainfall.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Historical Colorado Flooding Continues


The amount of rain across north central Colorado has exceeded 12 inches over the last 7 days in many areas.



Boulder has beared the brunt of the massive rainfall. The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network in Colorado had this to say about the historic rainfall for Boulder:

"Boulder's annual precipitation averages 20.68 inches, with an average of 1.68 inches in September. For September 1-13, the U.S. Cooperative Weather Station in Boulder has received 14.74 inches of rain. This nearly three times the previous monthly September record of 5.50 inches in 1940! This is also the wettest month ever on record for Boulder. The previous record was 9.59 inches in July 1995."


The CoCoRaHS cooperative network reported 24 location with more than a foot of rain from the 9th through the 14th.

Chart courtesy: http://www.cocorahs.org/Maps
 What's interesting about this flooding event is that a masive hail storm preceded it on the 9th

Photo Courtesy: Thedenverchannel.com
The river levels are not forecasted to fall below current levels for days. Moderate to extreme flooding will continue through the middle of the week. Below are the gauge reports from the Colorado Division of Water Resources.

Luckily, the 5 day rainfall forecast will give Colorado a significant break this week.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

A Look back at 9/11 in 2013

The power of the images and videos from 9/11 can still be felt. We relived that day last year at the 10 year mark.  Last year at year 11 post 9/11 I edited my ten year retrospective. This year, I added some observations that I missed in the years since. YouTube is filled with graphic videos of that morning.

I would imagine at 20 years (2021), the day will still bring up the same emotions.  But like other traumatic events of the past like Pearl Harbor, the raw 9/11 memories are gradually fading--though never completely--into the background of our national consciousness.  Its takes time. I commented to my wife that most freshman in college really don't have solid memories of the events of that day in 2001 because they were 6 and 7 years old. They have grown up in a post 9/11 world. They know nothing else.

Below is my post from last year which recounts my 9/11 experience in the newsroom as the events unfolded.  I'll never forget it.

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My memory of 9/11 actually begins the night before. My wife and I were--let the cold shivers begin--planning a trip to visit her friend in New York City. We were on the web looking at maps of the city familiarizing ourselves with the locations of the tourist attractions in relation to where my wife's friend lived in Queens. At that time, never having traveled to New York City, the NYC street grid was as foreign to me as a city grid of Moscow.

I distinctly remember pointing to several spots on the map of Manhattan and Long Island that I wanted to check out on our trip. Queens, the Statue of Liberty, Central Park, Yankee Stadium, Greenwich Village and the World Trade Center. As we studied the map, I made mental snapshots of the region remembering how far Yankee Stadium was from the subway stop, etc. It was getting late that night. I had to get up to go to work at the local NBC affiliate the next day. I was the morning meteorologist at WSAZ in Huntington, West Virginia back then so I needed to get up at 3AM.

The morning of 9/11 started out as normal as any other day. Our morning show started at 5AM. The news was fairly typically. No outlandish stories. The weather was quiet. I remember a powerful hurricane off of the New England coast named Erin but that was heading away from land. This monster hurricane would be lost in the events of the day.
We had just finished our 8:35AM news cut-in before we sent our morning news to The Today Show. Around 8:40AM, The Today Show interrupted their segment to show one of the The World Trade Center Towers on fire. The in-studio monitors all showed the fire engulfing multiple floors. The fire was big. It captured our attention. But at the time, not one of us watching EVER thought this was linked to something bigger, more global and temporally far-reaching.

One of our camera operators and I commented that it looked like someone hit the building with a missile from a nearby rooftop. Our conversation was purely speculative, half contrived for the sake of conversation and at the time not a bit realistic. We went back and forth, as news people do, debating how a missile blast into the 100th floor of a skyscraper could be more of a subplot for a movie than a plausible real-life event. How could someone get a weapon through a building undetected we both said almost simultaneously? In the span of 15 seconds, we quickly dismissed it.

Our eyes were affixed to the monitors at 8:45AM. I was tense, rigid and more alert. So was my co-anchor.  I sat in the weather chair on the right side of the set, he sat to my left. The minutes ticked by with no new information on the fire. Nothing was said but we knew that something was terribly wrong. We all quietly attempted to persuade ourselves that this was an accident. Some electrical fire. Some gas line rupture. Our hapless speculation of just 7 or 8 minutes seemed inappropriate. No one was speculating out loud.  Everyone was speculating to themselves.  The silence was speaking volumes in the tense air of the studio. Keep in mind at this time, we had no official word it was a jet airliner that hit The World Trade Towers.

A few minutes later, Matt Lauer and Katie Couric were scrambling to inform us that a plane just hit the second tower. This was LIVE TV! Eye-witness accounts were all they had. We all said a "few colorful words" filled with anger, frustration and horror. We were all stunned. We just listened. Total silence in the studio. No one said anything. No speculation.  No talk of Iraq. No commentary on military retaliation. No link to Al-Qaeda. No comparisons to Pearl Harbor. No War in Afghanistan. No WMDs.  Nothing prophetic. We sat and stood and watched as the events--whether we wanted them or not--became etched in our permanent memories.  One must remember that the afterglow of the dot.com boom years was still fresh in our minds...but fading as Y2K was the big buzzword at that time. In no way did I think these series of events would pervade our collective national consciousness for a YEAR or a decade or longer. At the time, no one did.

In breaking news situations in television, your body language changes from one of relaxation to one that conveys rigidity and alertness. Your adrenaline surges in controlled doses. Your ability to disseminate massive amounts of information increases while simultaneously conveying the basics of a story in an intelligible way on camera as if scripted. Time doesn't go by slow or fast. It becomes frozen. There is no "did I do this right?" or "Will the segment look okay?". You perform in the present ONLY. Your instincts take over. Only in hindsight do you fully grasp the story and its complexity.  Your experience becomes the foundation of your on-air instincts. That morning, all of our collective television experience and instinct served us perfectly. The morning of 9-11 was the same as another other 5AM show. Yet the tone of our broadcasts soon became dreadfully different than anything we had done before.

The newsroom was scrambling to record the national NBC feed along with all other news feeds from other sources that captured the newest video of what was happening. The news alert beeps were non-ending as more video was ready to be recorded. Remember that this was before non-linar computer editing so everything was recorded VCR style. You pushed a new tape in and hit the record button. The clanking of tapes into tape decks was deafening.   No real-time Youtube clips. No cell-phone video. No text messages. No real-time tweets. No Facebook updates. You waited at a tape deck rack for the satellite to "beam" you latest reel. Yet no one said "Al-Qaeda". No one said "Bin Laden". No one said "middle east terrorists".  No one had any opinion on the events unfolding before their eyes. That would change as I went into my boss's office for my 6 month review.

My boss--now a General Manager at another station--sat down with me shortly after 9AM.  We said a few things about my past 6 months work but he was only half paying attention. Ken, my boss--the best multi-tasker I've ever known--was attempting to carry on a meaningful conversation while flipping pages of my file on top of jotting down notes of the coverage on a yellow legal pad balanced on his knee. The ring of his phone every 20 seconds interrupted the chaotic convergence of his tasks. I sat patiently waiting for the whirl of papers above his desk to settle. The phone stopped ringing. His note pad resting on his desk at arm's reach. He paused for a moment, looked out his window into the newsroom then to the bank of TVs on his wall and said, "Its Bin Laden. Its Bin Laden." I said, "Who?". He repeated, "Bin Laden!" In 2001, the name "Osama Bin Laden" for most was unknown. Maybe a few remember him as architect of the USS Cole bombing in 2000. He was certainly not a household name.

My boss had the uncanny ability of having 20/20 hindsight vision...IN THE PRESENT. He could see events happen before they happened then project into the future what the effects the event would cause. This is what made him an innovative news director. Either you accepted his unearthly ability or you let it consume you personally.  After all, who is comfortable with their boss knowing what you would do before you would do it. So you believed in his vision. In the weeks ahead, my boss's prophetic realization became the most pivotal, surreal memory of that morning.

As the next plane hit the Pentagon followed by Flight 93 nose first into the field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, my review faded into the chaos of the morning. The rest of the day was a blur.  Normally I take a nap in the afternoon. I don't think I slept for more than 2 hours at a time for a week. National coverage continued as it would for a week uninterrupted even for commercials. The morning show was all 9/11. A few basic weather segments of 45 seconds or so but nothing more  No television shows. No entertainment. The focus was covering the aftermath of 9-11. Somehow at the time, it didn't seem enough.

By noon that day, most of the pieces began to fall into place. The two attacks in New York City at the World Trade Center; the collapse of both Trade Center towers. Another plane attack, this time into the Pentagon and the other foiled attack on The White House resulting in the crash in Shanksville, PA. All were connected.  Everyone knew life would be different from this point forward.

90 Degrees in September? A Brief History in Cleveland


I'll admit it. A few weeks back, I said we were pretty much done with the 90 degree temperatures. Here we are on September 10th and our 7th day above 90 is about to occur. Our forecast high of 92 would be the warmest September high temperature since September 10, 1983...exactly 30 years ago!

Our recent very warm summers have skewed our perceptions of what is considered an average summer. I've written about this multiple times this summer (check my posts from July and August on the Recency Effect).


Some statistical bullet points on September 90 degree temperatures:

*  This year would be the 4th in a row. 


*  Most of the time, 90 degree temperatures in September occur in the first two weeks of the     month. 

*  Only twice in the last 50 years has 90 occurred after September 20th. Once in 1998 and again in 2010.

50 YEAR HISTORY OF 90 DEGREE HEAT IN SEPTEMBER
90 degree heat AFTER September 10th is even more rare...


September heat occurred more frequently in the 1940s and 1950s.


So as you head to high school football games later this week, you can be assured that the 90 degree heat is probably history as we replace the 90s with 60s and 70s on a more frequent basis.