2010-2011 Winter Weather Outlook

..Coming up tonight at 10PM.

Here is a hint:  THIS WINTER WILL MIRROR THE WINTER OF 2008-09.  LOTS OF ALBERTA CLIPPER SNOWS "NICKEL AND DIMING" US EARLY ON.

CHECK OUT FOX8.COM FOR MORE

Strongest Great Lakes Storm in Years!

Late October and Early November are considered a second severe weather period after April, May and June.  This is due to the leftover warmth of the summer still lingering across the south clashing with the first real pushes of winter air across the upper midwest.  What lies in between both air masses is usually a strong cold front and a deepening low which produces bursts of high wind and often times, a line of severe storms.

Tuesday, October 26th, a deepening low over the western Great Lakes was evolving into a severe weather producing machine.  Note the "L" at the top of the map taking up 50% of the country.  But this storm is different.  The pressure is lower than ANY great lakes storm since 1978 acording to the National Weather Service office in Chicago

Moisture (warmer colors) feeding into the storm aided in the development of severe storms.

HIGH WIND WATCHES and WARNINGS shown with tan watch boxes stretched from Montana to eastern Tennessee.

Early morning tornado watch boxes were issued from Chicago, south to St. Louis and east to Cleveland. 

Northern Ohio was under a "high risk" for severe weather for the first time in years.  This designation is typically reserved for tornadic weather in tornado alley, not Ohio.

Expect power outages through early Wednesday across northeastern Ohio through early Wednesday. 

How about a 70 degree day in November?

Monday and Tuesday offer, more than likely, the last "real" decent chance of a string of 70 degree weather this year. Granted, this time of year promises rapid fluctuations in temperature and overall weather.  Rain one day and potentially snow the next?  Its happened before. 

October is pretty much in the books.  So what does November look like?  Have we hit 70 alot historically in November.

Since 1980 (last 30 years) I counted up the 70 degree days and plotted them on the graph below.



You can see that most of the 70 degree days happened early in the month with only a few scattered by mid-month.  Little to no chance by Thanksgiving.

By the end of the week, daytime highs will be back to normal--57 by late afternoon--then the countdown will begin to when the first snowflakes will fly.

Fall Foliage UPDATE - Ohio DNA

The fall colors are almost reaching peak across Ohio.  The Ohio Department of Natural Resources has a weekly fall foliage video update from Casey Burdick.

CLICK ON THE PICTURE BELOW FOR FALL COLOR UPDATES FOR SELECT PARKS ACROSS THE STATE

Cleveland Summer 2010 vs 2009 vs 2008.....

Across the state of Ohio, this summer ranks 4th all-time warmest since record keeping began in the late 1800s.  Nationally, this summer was also 4th all-time.  It wasn't too long ago--last summer in fact--that summer temperatures were cooler than any summer in recent memory.  Let's compare this summer's ranks nationally to 2009 and 2008.

 This summer was very warm across the eastern half of the country while the west was cooler.  Last summer, more than 65% was much below averages.  2008, although not super-cool by any stretch, was near average to slightly below average.  Here are the ranks of the summers between 2008 and 2002 in Ohio:

2008:  50th warmest
2007:  26th warmest
2006:  41th warmest
2005:    5th warmest
2004:  98th warmest (13th coldest)
2003:  78th warmest (31st coldest)
2002:    4th warmest

What does this mean?  Are the temperatures across the state trending warmer in recent years or cooler?

Here is a graph of Ohio temperatures from 1951 to 2006.  it shows a negligible increase in overall temperatures.

Keep in mind that this is not a snapshot of what is happening globally.  My previous post illustrates the global increase which also note the discrepancy in the data.

Global Temperatures: Who is Right?

I've always said that I'm never a fan of politics.  I give each side of every argument a fair shake regardless of my personal opinions of beliefs. Its my open-mindedness to other information and data that has allowed me to change my opinion on many issues based on newly acquired knowledge.  Politics--as with every hot-button issue--clouds the landscape.

In climate science, the data is the foundation of the field.  This analysis focuses on the two datasets that is often sited and dissected as to what is more valid and reliable.  One represents the ground temperatures.  The other represents the atmospheric temperatures measured from satellites.

The first set is from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS).  This dataset goes back more than 100 years of record keeping.  The second originates from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite.  Satellites like the AMSU have been measuring the atmosphere since 1979.

The first graph is from GISS.  NASA and NOAA use this dataset in determining long term trends commonly sited.  The data is from 1880 to the present.  I noted the satellite era on the right with two solid red vertical lines.

The second graph is from the UAH website showing the satellite data since 1979.  I added the average temperature rise in red.  All data is available on the web for verification.

The question doesn't come from whether global temperatures have warmed or cooler since 1979 (warming has occurred) but to what degree.  One dataset shows between 0.7 and 0.9 degree celsius increase.  The other shows a 0.4 degree celsius increase.

Furthermore, can the increase be described best using naturally occurring cycles or does the increase in Carbon Dioxide have the most effect?





So what dataset is right?

3 HURRICANES IN THE ATLANTIC

CHECK OUT THIS HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGE OF HURRICANES KARL, IGOR AND JULIA TAKEN ON SEPTEMBER 16TH.  CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR THE COMPLETE IMAGE FOR ACTUAL SIZE.

Monster Hurricane IGOR in Atlantic

After a week of not making up its mind, Igor has rapidly intensified into a major Hurricane with winds of 150 miles per hour.  Igor is located in the lower right hand corner of this satellite photo with a close of IGOR and JULIA following.

The reason for this hesitation in strengthening until this past weekend is in large part due to the cooling of the atlantic in the wake of Hurricane Earl and Danielle a week and a half ago.  Below is a NASA animation showing the cooling effect hurricanes have on the water in its wake.




Forecasts have the hurricane intensifying to a category 5 in the next 24 hours with slow weakening affecting Bermuda late Friday.  Notice the curved path of the highest winds staying well offshore.

Globally, IGOR and JULIA have some of the strongest and widespread wind fields.  Check out the global wind speeds.  The southern hemisphere in its winter season features strong systems over Australia and the Southern Ocean.

Does a WARM August mean a WARM Fall?

August ranked as the 6th all-time warmest.  Surprisingly, July wasn't ranked in the top ten yet June was the 9th warmest on record. Consistant warmth is probably the best way to describe this summer's temperature pattern.

Does a warm August mean a warm fall?  Let's look at the Septembers and Octobers following these hot months.
Remember what we're doing is purely statistical so obviously we are missing some big meteorological components to the analysis like EL NINO but its fun nonetheless.

Let's first list the top 5 warmest Augusts on record including this year and the number of record highs tied or broken in the right column.

1. 77.8  1995       84
2. 77.8  1947       71
3. 76.1  1959       47
4. 76.1  1953      149
5. 75.0  1938        7
6. 74.9  2010       25

Pictured below are the temperatures relative to average for each September following these war Augusts.  All of these years suggest near to above normal temperatures in September in these years.  Again, we are not taking into account any meteorological/climatological variations like El Nino/La Nina, etc.

Now, let's look at October in the same years.

Notice the consistancy from year to year.  Aside form 1947, Octobers seem to stay near normal.


Recently, the weather patterns have done a complete "180" allowing cooler air to settle into northern Ohio for the first time since late last spring.  September 7th of this year marked our 19th day at 90 degrees or better.  The following day, temperatures at 7AM were in the upper 50s!

We might finally be seeing an end to the summer heat.  So far, the forecast keeps the temperatures somewhat near average this week and into next week which would go against the September trend outline here.


Coming up next week, we will recap Hurricane Ike's effect on northern Ohio.

Hurricane Katrina - 5 Years Ago

Five years goes by very fast even when one of the most devastating natural disasters is concerned.  It was on that Sunday back in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina made landfall over New Orleans. It took a similar track to Hurricane Camille took back in 1969 over New Orleans.  This time, the damage was far more significant; the cleanup and rebuilding continues to this day.

Katrina made landfall over the Florida Keys days before as a tropical storm.

It weakened over Florida and quickly redeveloped into a major hurricane mainly due to the Loop Current, a current of warm water between the Yukatan Peninsula and Cuba.  The same current that was responsible for the steering of the 2010 Oil Spill.  The red color shows the Loop Current with Katrina's track over the top.

Katrina as a major hurricane shortly after intensifying in The Loop Current

Katrina's track from the Florida Keys to its New Orleans landfall is shown in this satellite photo blending several images with the track superimposed.

Katrina was a Category 5 shortly before landfall.  It weakened to a strong Category 3 as it made landfall with at least 80% of the city experiencing Category 1 or 2 level sustained winds. New Orleans was hit with winds of 125 miles per hour.  Below is a closeup high resolution satellite photo of the eye before landfall.

The eye over New Orleans

This graphic shows the level of the city compared to the level of the Gulf of Mexico.  You can understand  why 80% of the city was under water.

It proceeded inland with winds rapidly decreasing as shown below.

Hurricane Katrina's track headed north through Tennessee, Kentucky and Ohio as a depression with heavy rains.

The total rainfall from Katrina was incredible across the south. 8 to 10 inches of rain fell across the eastern half of the state with a local report of 15 inches near the Mississippi border.  Amounts of 1 to 2 inches for us in Cleveland were common several days later.

The rainfall swath was similar to the rainfall areas created by the track of Hurricane Camille in 1969.

High winds were reported as far north as Detroit and Cleveland  of over 50 miles per hour.