Lake Erie Ice Cover: This Year vs 2012 vs 2011

Even with the cold snap which started late December through earlier this week, the amount of ice cover on Lake Erie is still very scant. How does this year's ice cover compare to last year and two years ago? Here are the charts from the Canadian Ice Service from this year back to 2011. Notice the ice free year last year compared to the almost frozen Lake Erie in 2011/

January 7, 2013

January 9, 2012

January 17, 2011

January Thaw Begins...When Will Winter Return?

So far,  a nice "January Thaw" pattern shaping up for this week. The typicaly signature is a ridge in the east with a trough in the west which drives above normal temperatures here in Ohio and surrounding areas with below normal temperatures out west.

First, what will this mean for us:

1. The snow cover will melt completely by the end of the week

2. The ground will become saturates so the rain system on Thursday/Friday could cause some high water in low lying areas

The high is deflecting many of the weather systems back into Canada. When a system makes it through the ridge, it produces rain not snow

Second question: When will the winter pattern flip back to winter?

Looking at the long range blend of several computer projections, there are strong indications that the trough out west will migrate back east by the end of the week.

Colder temperatures seem a good bet by the 20th.

SO GET READY FOR MORE SNOW AND COLD BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS!

Satellite Data Confirms Record Setting Warmth in 2012

There are several data sets that we use to determine US and global temperatures. Some data sets are derived from measurements taken at the surface. Others are taken from satellites which sample the atmosphere from the surface to about 8 kilometers above the surface. These measurements began in the late 1970s.

Anyway you slice it, this year was a very warm year across northern Ohio, the US and globally. December started our very warm but flipped to below normal highs by Christmas. This trend has continued into early January.

The super-warm March really tipped the scales across the US.  Satellite data analysis is complete for 2012. The University of Alabama-Huntsville report is as follows. I broke up each sentence to make it easier to digest.

"Globally, 2012 was the ninth warmest year among the past 34, with an annual global average temperature that was about 0.29 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 30-year baseline average, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville.”

“…2012 was about three one-hundredths of a degree C warmer than 2011, but was 0.23 C cooler than 2010.”

“…Eleven of the 12 warmest years in the satellite temperature record have been been since 2001. From 2001 to the present only 2008 was cooler than the long-term norm for the globe."

"While 2012 was only the ninth warmest year globally, it was the warmest year on record for both the contiguous 48 U.S. states and for the continental U.S., including Alaska.”

“…For the U.S., 2012 started with one of the three warmest Januaries in the 34-year record, saw a record-setting March heat wave, and stayed warm enough for the rest of the year to set a record.

“….Compared to seasonal norms, March 2012 was the warmest month on record in the 48 contiguous U.S. states…The annual average temperature over the conterminous 48 states in 2012 was about 0.99 degrees F warmer than seasonal norms."

“…From 2001 to the present only 2008 was cooler than the long-term norm for the globe. Despite that string of warmer-than-normal years, there has been no measurable warming trend since about 1998. The long-term warming trend reported in the satellite data is calculated using data beginning on Nov. 16, 1978”

Again, these conclusions are derived from satellite data from University Alabama-Huntsville. Here is the top ten WARMEST YEARS GLOBALLY since 1979?  Graph of each year globally follows. Notice the warmer temps since the late 1990s versus the colder temps in the 1980s.

1979 through 2012

Warmest to coolest

  1. 1998  0.419

  2. 2010  0.394

  3. 2005  0.260

  4. 2002  0.218

  5. 2009  0.218

  6. 2007  0.202

  7. 2003  0.187

  8. 2006  0.186

  9. 2012  0.161

10. 2011  0.130

Will this trend continue in 2013 for northern Ohio and surrounding areas? I'll have thoughts on this later this month

Frigid Morning Lows - Coldest Temps Last 10 Winters

This morning's lows are the coldest since last January 20th.  That morning we dropped to 6 above.  That was the only time last winter we dropped into the single digits. Our heavy snow cover since the 26th of December and abundant clear skies are great conditions for frigid morning temperatures. Here is a list of the morning lows on the 3rd of January 2013.

What are the coldest temperatures in each of the last 10 winters? Here is the list courtesy of Andre Bernier. Notice the 1998 El Nino winter. Coldest temperature was 12. Back in early 2009, we dropped to -13.

Where did last year's mild winter rank with snowfall? Coming up tomorrow, I'll post the snowfall history ranked from most to least since 1909. 

My 2012 Watched Movie List

As many of you know, I started a list of movies I needed to watch some years ago. It started out as roughly one hundred movies assembled from top ten lists of national and international movie reviewers, website lists, the AFI list and a host of others. The list grew over time as new movies came out. If I liked the director, I made a list of that director's films. You can see how a list like this can grow exponentially. For every 3 or 4 movies you cross off of the list, seven more are added. Needless to say, the list continues to grow though not at the rate of a couple of years ago. Now that the New Year is here, I wait for about a dozen or so movies to make it to DVD in January and February.


At the end of each year, I compile my watched movie list and narrow it down to my favorite TEN.

My 2009 List  (100 total)
My 2010 List  (120 total)
My 2011 List  (150 total - list on Facebook)

Here is the complete 2012 list in no particular order (110 total) with my TOP 15 in RED/BOLD:


THESE AMAZING SHADOWS
THE LAST TRAIN HOME
CAVE OF FORGOTTEN DREAMS
THE CHANGE UP
THE DAY THE EARTH STOOD STILL
THE GIRL WHO PLAYED WITH FIRE
TINKER TAYLOR SOLDIER SPY
50/50
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
THE ARTIST

UP THE YANGTZE
GIRL WHO SHOOK THE HORNETS NEST
BONNIE & CLYDE
THE DECENDENTS
MELANCHOLIA
THE THIRD MAN
COOL HAND LUKE
CRIMES & MISDEMEANORS
THE SKIN I LIVE IN
ANOTHER EARTH

HUGO
CITY OF LIFE AND DEATH
A DANGEROUS METHOD
ARTHUR CHRISTMAS
TAKE SHELTER
BILL CUNNINGHAM NY
THE IRON LADY
A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
TOWER HEIST
THE INTERRUPTERS

INLAND EMPIRE
GOON
MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE
THE WHISTLEBLOWER
TERRI
HELL AND BACK AGAIN
ADVENTURES OF TIN TIN
J. EDGAR
LOST HIGHWAY
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4

3 MONKEYS
CARNAGE
ATTACK THE BLOCK
THE BEAVER
THE MAN NOBODY KNEW
THE AVENGERS
MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
SHERLOCK HOLMES 2
GARBO THE SPY
HANNA

CERTIFIED COPY
CONTRABAND
CHRONICLE
IN COLD BLOOD
A BETTER TOMORROW
THE ARBOR
URBANIZED
MAN ON A LEDGE
CASABLANCA
INTO THE ABYSS

WARRIOR
MY PERISTROIKA
NOSTALGIA FOR THE LIGHT
THE DICTATOR
LOVE CRIME
JEFF WHO LIVES AT HOME
ELITE SQUAD 2
NEVER LET ME GO
METROPOLIS
PARIAH

THE PIRATE BAND OF MISFITS
NOWHERE IN AFRICA
2012
EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE
A SEPARATION
PROMETHEUS
MIB 3
THE HUNGER GAMES
THE 3 STOOGES
RETREAT

THE CABIN IN THE WOODS
DOGTOOTH
WANDERLUST
MOONRISE KINGDOM
CODE UNKNOWN
COSMOPOLIS
BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
VERTIGO
THE CAMPAIGN
SPIDERMAN

THE ENGLISH PATIENT
MAGIC MIKE
ON THE WATERFRONT
DARK KNIGHT RISES
FIRST POSITION
PARANORMAN
WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU'RE EXPECTING
TED
EXPENDABLES 2
BERNIE

LOOPER
JIRO DREAMS OF SUSHI
LINCOLN
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
LAWLESS
BAD SANTA
SAFETY NOT GUARANTEED
ONCE UPON A TIME IN ANATOLIA
ARGO
BOURNE LEGACY

Last Post of 2012: Snowscape in Ohio; Snow Path to the Grill

This year was filled with tons of news and weather stories. We started out with a mild winter followed by a 6 week drought in June/early July followed by above normal rainfall this fall.  As predicted, the weather pattern has flipped to a cold and snowy one here in Ohio. As of early New Years Eve, our seasonal snow sits at 14 inches; double that in the snowbelt. Its almost double where we were last year at December's end.

While out sledding with the kids on Sunday (before the Browns lost their final game versus the Steelers) I snapped this picture showing the freshly fallen snow.

As promised, I also shoveled a path to the grill. It took a while to heat it up to cook some pork chops.

Have a Happy, Safe and Joyous 2013!

SNOW STORM/BLIZARD UPDATE: CHRISTMAS EVENING

For the most part, not much has changed since yesterday. The track of the "panhandle low/delta low combo" is still northeast just south of Ohio. This storm Wednesday will put northern Ohio in the "colder, snowier zone". United Airlines has already cancelled 60% of flights IN AND OUT of Hopkins Airport here in Cleveland. 

BLIZZARD WARNINGS (wind speeds at 35 mph or greater with 1/4 mile visibility or lower for 3+ hours) have been issued for the counties shaded in red. I remind everyone that local blizzards don't stop on county lines. So even though many counties are not under blizzard warnings, a local blizzard is possible at anytime Wednesday and Wednesday night.

On Saturday, I posted these initial projections CLICK HERE FOR MY POST

I mentioned this in yesterday's post: I never want to bite too fast with southern storm system because the amount of milder air that's pulled north can easily transfer snow to sleet or freezing rain greatly reducing the snow numbers. The latest numbers show the air will be too cold for any changeover but the RAP (Rapid Refresh Model) shows surface temperatures at 11AM (the time when the snow begins) to be slightly below freezing. Yet look at the pocket of milder air in Kentucky/West Virginia...I remember forecasting 15-20" of snow in one situation years ago. At the last minute, milder air pushed north. Heavy snow never materialized. The amounts ended up being closer to 5-8". A decent amount of snow for sure but it wasn't even close to the initial 15"+. In tomorrow's situation, the wind will be out of the NORTHEAST which isn't conducive for pulling milder air into Ohio. Still something to watch even if the chances are small

RAP Model: Courtesy Weatherbell Analytics

Here are my snowfall projections which I used yesterday and again this evening. A general 6-12 INCHES! Remember, THIS IS NOT LAKE EFFECT! Because the snow will be blowing with NORTHEAST WINDS AT 30-35 MPH, these amounts will vary GREATLY!

The question with this storm isn't whether or not we will see significant snow--all models are pointing in this direction--its a question of THE RATE AT WHICH THE SNOW FALLS!

Look at the higher resolution projection for snowfall for early Wednesday. Note the scale on the right. Much of the accumulating snow is in Indiana.

Now watch the speed at which the snow accumulates from 10AM to 4PM...The snowfall rate is incredible! Its painting 10"+ in parts of Northern Ohio in less than 6 hours! If this verifies, we are looking at whiteout conditions and extremely hazardous travel conditions!

WEDNESDAY'S BIG SNOW FOR NORTHERN OHIO

Since this pattern started to shift to a more wintery one a week ago, storm systems have developed in the south and began to follow a track through Ohio and into the Northeast.This storm Wednesday will take a more southerly track which will put northern Ohio in the "colder, snowier zone".

On Saturday, I posted these initial projections CLICK HERE FOR MY POST

I never want to bite too fast with southern storm system because the amount of milder air that's pulled north can easily transfer snow to sleet or freezing rain greatly reducing the snow numbers. I remember forecasting 15-20" of snow in one situation years ago. At the last minute, milder air pushed north. Heavy snow never materialized. The amounts ended up being closer to 5-8". A decent amount of snow for sure but it wasn't even close to the initial 15"+.

The question with this storm isn't whether or not we will see significant snow--all models are pointing in this direction--its a question of THE RATE AT WHICH THE SNOW FALLS!

Look at this evenings higher resolution projection for snowfall for early Wednesday. Note the scale on the right. Much of the accumulating snow is in Indiana.

Now watch the speed at which the snow accumulates from 10AM to 4PM...The snowfall rate is incredible! Its painting 10"+ in parts of Northern Ohio in less than 6 hours! If this verifies, we are looking at whiteout conditions and extremely hazardous travel conditions!

By 10PM (12 hours of snow), the projections are tremendous! Check the legend on the right for the amounts in inches.

Factor a EAST and NORTHEAST wind at 30+ mph and the conditions WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY will be blizzard-like in spots!

More updates right here tomorrow...Merry Christmas!

Next Week's Snow & Christmas Lights

For weeks now, I've been harping on the pattern shift and how our snow chances were going to climb heading into the Christmas holiday. Snow #1 was yesterday.

There is nothing better than seeing a freshly fallen snow over lit Christmas lights.

Snow #2 will be next Wednesday and/or Thursday as many people will be traveling.
Here is one computer projection's (GFS) estimate. It paints a big bulls eye over Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The models have been consistent in taking this storm along a southern track through Tennessee which would keep Ohio and Pennsylvania in the COLDER air mass. A lot of uncertainty on the specific timing and how much of a northerly push this storm will make. More on this developing snow later this weekend. Merry Christmas

First Snow of the Season; First Since Early March

The pattern shift to a more cold and snowy one (that we talked about weeks ago) is finally upon us. And with this shift, the first snow of the winter which is falling, appropriately enough, on the winter solstice. Yesterday, a neat double rainbow was sighted by many people. Here is a photo of the double rainbow taken over the lake.

The last time we had a stretch without at least 1" of snow was in the 1920s! So far, the accumulations as of early Friday morning have been on grassy surfaces.

Coating of snow in Chesterland early Friday morning

The radar still shows some dry air being pulled into the system. This happens in lows that spin over the Great Lakes. So a burst of blowing snow followed by a drier break is not that uncommon.

Here are the initial snowfall projections I went with on Thursday. These numbers indicate the snowfall through early Friday evening. Everyone will get at least 1-3" by sundown.

Factor in the localized lake effect today through early Saturday. Total accumulations are as follows. Most areas will get a good 2-4" by early Saturday.