Saturday, December 14, 2013

More Snow On The Way Saturday

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CURRENT RADAR IMAGE - LOOP LINK HERE
This snow event is the real deal. I know. I know. Everyone is saying "Weren't were supposed to have a lot of snow this morning?" Not to worry, its coming later today as we forecasted yesteday.

This panhandle low is much different for two reasons: COLD AIR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED and THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER than with the last two. The moisture originates from the tropical Pacific. The conveyor belt of moisture continues to feed the Texas panhandle low.

Give all of the parameters, the snow will be WIDESPREAD and heavier. It will be much harder to shovel. We are not anticipating much wind with this snow. Some lesser amounts along the shoreline where the relatively warmer waters will cause some initial melting.



Friday, December 13, 2013

Widespread Snow for OHIO Saturday!!!

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This snow event is the real deal. I know. I know. Everyone is say "What happened to the other two snow events?" The temperatures were warmer and the moisture was shifted much further east.
Small scale conditions like a shift a few degrees in temperature can make the difference between snow and sleet reducing the snowfall amounts. In hindsight, initial amounts (24 hours out) were too high. Inside that time frame, we adjusted them accordingly. This is why we can't handle probability in weather forecasts.  We crave a concrete forecast. All too often, it doesn't work out. 

Now back to the snow for tonight and tomorrow (Saturday)...

This panhandle low is much different for two reasons: COLD AIR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED and THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER than with the last two. The moisture originates from the tropical Pacific. The conveyor belt of moisture continues to feed the Texas panhandle low.



 The moisture converges and slides right over the Midwest over the next 24 hours.



The high resolution WRF model shows the snow rapidly intensifying over the next 24 hours. The forecast bring the snow into northern Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and western Pennsylvania tonight into Saturday. Video of this is below:


A close up really shows the extent of the snow by 2AM Saturday.


Give all of the parameters, the snow will be WIDESPREAD and heavier. It will be much harder to shovel. We are not anticipating much wind with this snow


The probability for more than 4" is greater than 80% as per the National Weather Service.



Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Will The Cold Lead to More Ice On Lake Erie?

Totally Ice Covered Lake Erie in 2011

Here are my other blog posts over the last two winter about Lake Erie Ice Cover and temperature trends, lake effect snow:

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/02/valentines-day-update-any-ice-on-lake.html
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/08/will-warmer-lake-increase-lake-effect.html
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2012/01/where-is-lake-erie-ice-will-it-freeze.html
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2013/10/will-warm-fall-slow-cooling-of-lake-erie.html

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Since the beginnings of this abnormally cold winter pattern about a week ago, people have asked what the ice conditions were on Lake Erie. Not surprisingly, the amount of ice coverage on the lake is about 1%, most of this is in the far western basin of the lake where the water depth is very shallow.

Overall Lake Erie Ice Concentration on 12-11-2013
Far Western Basin Lake Erie Ice on 12-11-2013
A recent photo from the south side of Kelleys Island confirms that ice is forming in other spots too in the western basin.


This is not all that unusual for this time of year. When we look at each winter since the early 1970s by December 11th, only 4 times has Lake Erie had more than 5% ice cover in the middle of December!  Environment Canada has a great website with all sorts of ice information for the Great Lakes.


The current conditions are lining up fairly well with ice cover averages for Lake Erie. The first red circle below shows little ice for mid December with a peak in early February.
 

Many conditions have to be present for ice to form on Lake Erie to include sustained cold air temperatures. If frequent storm systems pass over the lake featuring strong winds like we've had, the upper layer of water will be continuously stirred and overturned. This overturning causes mixing of different layers of different temperatures. In these conditions, widespread ice formation is difficult in the short term. Long term trends indicate that Lake Erie ice cover is showing a decrease of -0.74% per year. This is the smallest decrease of any Great Lake according to research.

Recently, the water temperatures have begun to drop in the upper 30s.

 A more high resolution look from Michigan State's Remote Sensing image shows spots falling into the lower 30s especially in the western basin.

Water temps are still markedly warmer closer to Cleveland and the eastern shoreline.

While the lack of ice cover currently is pretty normal per the 40 year averages, the colder pattern for early December is unusually strong nationally compared to recent years. IF this colder pattern continues into the beginning of January with a 8-10 day stretch of daytime highs in the lower to mid 20s with cold overnight lows without significant wind, Lake Erie will start to accumulate ice at an increasing rate.

Monday, December 09, 2013

US SNOW COVER AT 10+ YEAR HIGH

The recent push of the western trough east creating a favorable environment for frequent large scale snow systems along with widespread, early season cold has increased the snow cover significantly across the US. On December 1st,  20.2% of the US was covered with snow. By December 9th, that number increased by almost 47%!  Only 2009's increase of 44.3% in the first 9 days of December has even come close. 


Last year's snow cover map vs this year through December 9th:

December 9, 2012

December 9, 2013



Friday, December 06, 2013

FRIDAY'S Winter Weather Update: RADAR, SNOWFALL FORECAST


CURRENT RADAR IMAGE FOR NORTHERN OHIO AND OHIO VALLEY



Temps have dropped 30+ degrees over the last 24 hours in northern Ohio.

Look at the temperatures across the Great Lakes yesterday vs this morning



A light dusting of snow/sleet late last night has moved south with a break. The main area of snow (circled in red at the lower left) is now converging across southern Indiana. Expect this snow to make it into northern Ohio by early afternoon.

Here is our SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR TODAY


Thursday, December 05, 2013

Winter Weather Update: COLD AIR COMING, WINTERY MIX, SNOW!

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OHIO FOR FRIDAY -- ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR FRIDAY. 1-3 IN CLEVELAND; 2-4 INCHES MEDINA; 3-5"+ AKRON, CANTON SOUTH. MORE UPDATES ON FOX8 NEWS

Temps early Thursday made it into the lower 60s. This marks the third straight day with temps above 50; 2 days in the 60s. The arctic air will affect Ohio in two waves. The first is late Friday and Saturday. The stronger one is next week. If we stay in the 20s on Saturday after 60s two days prior is a rare occurrence.  It hasn't happened since 1972!

Two waves of winery weather will develop along the temperature boundary later this evening and tonight.  It glances northern Ohio with some sleet/wet snow with no significant accumulations. The second wave is the "biggie". That develops on the same boundary tomorrow morning. Snow will converge along the front/boundary and start accumulating by midday.

Here are the preliminary accumulations for Friday:

Get ready for a repeat of this late Sunday and Monday....sleet/ice and snow. This time, the temperatures will DROP MUCH MORE behind it next week!

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY!




Wednesday, December 04, 2013

Winter Storm FRIDAY...Arctic Air Coming In Two Waves

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WINTER STORM WATCH NOW ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN OHIO FOR FRIDAY. DETAILS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST.


I'm still not convinced that this first push of colder air this weekend will be as strong as advertised. The mean trough stays west of Ohio on Friday and into the weekend. The 500mB flow is out of the southwest so the advection of cold air is more south than east. The core of the cold air doesn't slide east until early next week as the trough migrates into the Great Lakes.
 

I'm not saying that the temperatures won't fall, I'm just a bit hesitant on bring in a 28 degree high for Saturday this far out (I'm writing this Wednesday morning). I've been consistent with my reasoning since Monday. Unless the overall flow changes in the models Thursday or Friday, I'd rather keep the temps in the lower 30s and adjust down if need be. A 5 degree variation is probably more semantic than anything else. Rarely does someone feel a difference between 28 and 33. But this pattern, as I see it, will no doubt occur again later this winter if the mean trough stays in the center of the US. Better learn the specifics now than be blindsided later...Now to the specifics of the Friday forecast:

Temps will start to fall Thursday but as I said earlier, the winds will parallel the front. So the front stalls and a low develops along it over the panhandle of Texas. It moves along the sharp temperature gradient along the Ohio River.

So the dividing line between rain and snow will bisect Ohio. Expect precipitation to move in fast tomorrow (Thursday) night and early Friday.
 
The movement of a few miles will greatly affect how much snow we get and who see it Friday. The European model is fairly aggressive with snowfall amounts for all of Ohio. The heaviest snow seems to stay south. Stay tuned for more adjustments to the snow amounts and locations.


Tuesday, December 03, 2013

November Summary for Cleveland and Ohio

Thanksgiving is over. The weather is beginning to quiet down. The snow cover has finally melted. What a better time than now to look back at how November stacked up versus last November and other Novembers of the past. Was it colder than last year? How cold/warm was it? Did we see an abnormal amount of snow? The graphics below should shed some light on this.

The overall pattern has featured a trough across the Great Lakes with the ridge out west. This allowed bursts of colder air to drain into Ohio. Notice that last year, the trough was out over the eastern seaboard. The western ridge was stronger and further east.



First the temperatures:  Over the last 4 years, much of the US had above normal temperatures with the exception of the east coast. This year, most locations east of the continental divide were well below average.


Yet here in northern Ohio, the average temperature this year was not much colder than last November. The November temperatures over the last two years were below the 30 year running average. November 2013 was the coldest November since 2000.

Even when you look at the average high temperatures (not counting the overnight lows) the numbers are similar to 2012.

The true indicator lies in the extremes. The number of days above 50 degrees were identical to 2012...

...yet the number of days below 40 degrees was far and away higher than last year, second only to 2008, third highest in 17 years.

How about snowfall? More than 2/3rds of the state had at least 2" of snow. The last time that happened (eyeballing this) was in 1980!
Cleveland snowfall was the highest since 2008, just slightly above the 4.4" average.


Tuesday, November 26, 2013

UPDATE: Significant SNOW for NE Ohio!!!


Courtesy: Cleveland Public Safety


First, some clarification on winter watch/warning definitions: A WINTER STORM WATCH means there may be hazardous winter weather due to heavy snow. Heavy snow means 7 INCHES OR MORE of accumulation in 24 hours or less. They are issued at least 12 hours before the hazardous winter weather is expected to begin. When the storm becomes imminent (inside 12 hours of occurring) or has a high probability of occurring, watches are upgraded to a "WARNING" which was done yesterday for select counties.

Leading edge of the snow is pushing into southern Ohio. CLICK ON THE IMAGE BELOW FOR THE CURRENT RADAR OVER OHIO

 
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USOH0245&animate=true

The timing of the snow looks like this: SNOW IN AKRON/CANTON/NEW PHILLY BY 2PM, CLEVELAND BY 3PM. AFTER THAT, THE SNOW SLIDES WEST.


Accumulations from TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON through WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON look like this. Most of this will fall this evening and tonight:

Hazardous travel through western PA and western NY state. The major airports along the east coast will only see rain from this system. Any flight delays will trickle down from the inland airports like Hopkins in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Rochester.