FINAL 2013 MOVIE LIST

The winter doldrums have officially begun. What a better way to combat cabin fever than with a good movie. Here is my complete 2013 movie list.  The final number was 90 which is my lowest number in 5 years. Some of these movies are oldies, some are brand new. I rank my top 10 in RED. Honorable mention in BOLD.

What were your favorite movies of 2013?

2009 MOVIE LIST  100 total
2010 MOVIE LIST  120 total
2011 MOVIE LIST  150 total
2012 MOVIE LIST  110 total

KILLER JOE
FRANKENWEENIE
SHOTGUN STORIES
SKYFALL
ZERO DARK THIRTY
DJANGO UNCHAINED
FLIGHT
CLOUD ATLAS
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA

PSYCHO
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
WRECK IT RALPH
THE SESSIONS
TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE
SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS
LIFE OF PI
HITCHCOCK
RISE OF THE GUARDIANS
ROBOT AND FRANK

THE MASTER
STAND UP GUYS
KILLING THEM SOFTLY
8 1/2
THE PLAYER
LORD OF THE RINGS
300
CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR
RUSHMORE
THIS IS 40

KNUCKELBALL!
GANGSTER SQUAD
IRON MAN 3
HITLER'S CHILDREN
THIS IS NOT A FILM
SCANNERS
EL VELADOR
MODERN TIMES
HOW TO SURVIVE A PLAGUE
A PLACE BEYOND THE PINES

MYANMAR
STAR TREK
HOLY MOTORS
FAT MAN LITTLE BOY
SIDE EFFECTS
SYRUP
THE COMPANY YOU KEEP
SEREPHIM FALLS
MUD
LORE

THE HOUSE I LIVE IN
GI JOE
PAIN AND GAIN
ABRAHAM LINCOLN VAMPIRE HUNTER
PARENTAL GUIDANCE
OBLIVION
BOY
NAKED LUNCH
GRAVITY
DIAL M FOR MURDER

EPIC
TAKE THIS WALTZ
ELYSIUM
5 BROKEN CAMERAS
MONSTERS UNIVERSITY
DESPICABLE ME 2
TURBO
THE WAY WAY BACK
RED 2
BEFORE MIDNIGHT

12 YEARS A SLAVE
FREEBIRDS
OSLO, AUGUST 31ST
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
EASY RIDER
GROWN UPS 2
MAN OF STEEL
2 GUNS
PERCY JACKSON AND THE SEA MONSTERS
THE TO DO LIST

THE LONE RANGER
WOLVERINE
WE'RE THE MILLERS
THE WILD BUNCH
BEFORE SUNSET
BEFORE SUNRISE
THE STING
UPSTREAM COLOR
WALKING WITH THE DINOSAURS
SAVING MR BANKS

New Years Day: SNOW UPDATE

My snow forecast hasn't changed since yesterday.  The Winter Storm Watch has been downgraded to an Advisory. This isn't because snow totals will be lower. The difference is the snow will occur over a 36 hour period not inside the 24 hour watch criteria. Daytime accumulations will be around 4 inches with lesser amounts south of Akron and Canton. Notice the breaks south on radar

RADAR LOOP HERE




The back end of this snow system is linking up with this morning's snow in the middle of the country. USA RADAR LOOP HERE

 MAIN WAVE OF SNOW MOVES EAST LATER THIS EVENING.

 

 

 

Anticipate the bulk of the snow to fall overnight and Thursday morning. Total accumulations by early afternoon Thursday will be around 6 to 8 inches across a good portion of northern Ohio with lesser amounts south. Winds will be gusting to 30 mph tomorrow morning and afternoon so visibility will drop as will the wind chills (below zero) Thursday. Additional snow later Thursday will be lake effect east and some south on top of the general snow prior.

Again, I want to emphasize that this snow will occur over a 36 hour period not all at once.

Winter Storm Watch New Years Day/Thursday

A series of clipper snows have affected northern Ohio over the last 24 hours which amounts to several very dry inches of accumulation. Most of this will move out later today.

The bigger snow system is developing now...CURRENT RADAR LOOP HERE

The initial push of light snow will approach later tonight and early Wednesday. Accumulations through noon tomorrow will be around an inch or two. The storm itself begins to rotate southeast then more due east. It will take a while for the snow to converge along the front. Once that happens, the heaviest snow will affect northern Ohio Wednesday evening and overnight.

Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday 7AM to Thursday 7AM for the following counties:

A WINTER STORM WATCH means there may be hazardous winter weather due to heavy snow. Heavy snow means 7 INCHES OR MORE of accumulation in 24 hours or less. They are issued at least 12 hours (sometimes 24-36 hours) before the hazardous winter weather is expected to begin. 

When the storm becomes imminent (inside 12 hours of occurring) or has a high probability of occurring, watches are upgraded to a "WARNING" which was done yesterday for select counties.

Initial snowfall projections are as follows. The track of the storm and its speed will determine if these numbers need to be adjusted later today and this evening.

Heavy Rain Continues; River Flood Forecasts for Northern Ohio

FLOOD WARNING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO UNTIL SUNDAY 11AM

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN OHIO UNTIL 3AM

Current radar loop shows widespread rainfall across not only Ohio but across the Ohio Valley. A line of storms will push though southern Ohio. Some storms are possible across portions of northern Ohio. LOOP AT THIS LINK


Rainfall amounts will be between 2 and 3 inches in many locations.

The initial flooding was due to snow melt which amounted to between 1/2" and an 1"+ of liquid. Now with a good 2" of rain today and tonight rivers will rise rapidly. Here are some river forecasts for northern Ohio. Most river will peak late Sunday and Sunday night.

HURON RIVER AT MILAN

KILLBUCK CREEK

BLACK RIVER AT ELYRIA

GRAND RIVER AT PAINESVILLE

CHAGRIN RIVER AT WILLOUGHBY

CHAGRIN RIVER

CUYAHOGA RIVER AT INDEPENDENCE

TUSCARAWAS RIVER IN MASSILLON

CUYAHOGA RIVER IN AKRON

Heavy Rain & Flash Flood Forecast

FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 10 STATES

FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF OHIO FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...

Temps will slowly rise into the 40s with a possible 50+ by Sunday. The boundary between the milder air and the winter cold push next week will be very close to northern Ohio.

A stalled front will set up shop along the sharp temperature boundary. Rainfall will be heavy and extensive across the midwest and Ohio.

 

 Initial projections give northern Ohio over 2" by Sunday afternoon.

What about flooding? The snow cover is anywhere from 3 inches south up to a foot in the snowbelt. The liquid equivalent of the snow is around an inch to locally higher amounts.

6 hour Flash Flood guidance for Ohio shows we would need at least 2 inches of rain over a 6 hour time to create flash flood conditions. This does not take into account the snow melt however.

Combining the snow melt and the heavy rainfall, the National Weather Service has included much of Ohio in a "Potential Flash Flood" area for late Sunday. 

Here are some river water stage forecasts for the next 10 days. All rivers below except the Tuscarawas River near Massillon show minor flooding late Sunday into Monday. For current forecasts, here is the site RIVER FORECASTS

Cuyahoga River at Independence - Peak early Monday 12/23

Grand River at Painseville - Peak Sunday night 12/22

Huron River at Milan - Peak Sunday morning 12/22

Tuscarawas River at Massillon - Peak late Sunday through Tuesday

Does Our Snowy Start Mean A Snowy Winter Overall?

Marblehead Lighthouse

The collective belief that this winter will be super-cold and snowy is loud after the recent snow and long period of colder than normal temperatures.  While the drivers of winter are pointing to this season (December through February) being colder and snowier than average, a cold and snowy start (late November and early December) doesn't always carry over.

Look at the snowfall totals by December 15th since the early 1950s. 2013 is on the far right with 15 inches so far. Most winters we have well below 15 inches by December 15th going back to the early 1950s. I highlighted the snowiest winter (2004-05) and the winter of 1977-78 which was made memorable because of two historical blzzards in January.

 Here is the list in order from top to bottom. Surprisingly, 2013 is 14th on the list since 1954

How much snow did we end up with at the end of the winter in the years which had the same or more snow on December 15th?

8 of the 13 winters had final snow totals BELOW THE AVERAGE of 68 inches!

This is a purely statistical comparison as the dynamic drivers of many of these winters are totally different than the current drivers and conditions. What does all of this show?  It illustrates that we shouldn't be fooled or convinced that this winter will be snowier based on what has happened so far.

Anything can happen.

More Snow On The Way Saturday

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CURRENT RADAR IMAGE - LOOP LINK HERE

This snow event is the real deal. I know. I know. Everyone is saying "Weren't were supposed to have a lot of snow this morning?" Not to worry, its coming later today as we forecasted yesteday.

This panhandle low is much different for two reasons: COLD AIR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED and THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER than with the last two. The moisture originates from the tropical Pacific. The conveyor belt of moisture continues to feed the Texas panhandle low.

Give all of the parameters, the snow will be WIDESPREAD and heavier. It will be much harder to shovel. We are not anticipating much wind with this snow. Some lesser amounts along the shoreline where the relatively warmer waters will cause some initial melting.

Widespread Snow for OHIO Saturday!!!

UPDATES ON MY SOCIAL NETWORKING PAGES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND:

FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/ScottSabolFanPage
TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ScottSabolFOX8
GOOGLE+: https://plus.google.com/u/0/+ScottSabol/posts
INSTAGRAM:  http://instagram.com/scottsabolpics#

CURRENT RADAR IMAGE. LOOP HERE

This snow event is the real deal. I know. I know. Everyone is say "What happened to the other two snow events?" The temperatures were warmer and the moisture was shifted much further east.
Small scale conditions like a shift a few degrees in temperature can make the difference between snow and sleet reducing the snowfall amounts. In hindsight, initial amounts (24 hours out) were too high. Inside that time frame, we adjusted them accordingly. This is why we can't handle probability in weather forecasts.  We crave a concrete forecast. All too often, it doesn't work out. 

Now back to the snow for tonight and tomorrow (Saturday)...

This panhandle low is much different for two reasons: COLD AIR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED and THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER than with the last two. The moisture originates from the tropical Pacific. The conveyor belt of moisture continues to feed the Texas panhandle low.

 The moisture converges and slides right over the Midwest over the next 24 hours.

The high resolution WRF model shows the snow rapidly intensifying over the next 24 hours. The forecast bring the snow into northern Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and western Pennsylvania tonight into Saturday. Video of this is below:

A close up really shows the extent of the snow by 2AM Saturday.

Give all of the parameters, the snow will be WIDESPREAD and heavier. It will be much harder to shovel. We are not anticipating much wind with this snow

The probability for more than 4" is greater than 80% as per the National Weather Service.