Here is our FOX 8 Summer Outlook for 2022!
Showing posts with label scott sabol. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scott sabol. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Thursday, December 02, 2021
November 2021 Recap: Where Did The Temperatures End Up?
After a super warm October around most of the country, November featured more periods of "cold" across the eastern US.
First the October temperatures vs average
Now the November temperatures vs average (US)
Breaking down November into weekly periods you can see how variable the temperatures were as the split jet stream shifted week to week. First week was colder than normal (lower left) across eastern US. The cold backed off the second week as the jet weakened as it lifted back into central Canada (upper right)
Third week featured the return of the northern jet across the northern states (upper left below) with colder periods more frequent (lower left). By November 16-18, southern jet became stronger with a more uniform northern jet more southeast. The result was warmer temps out west with more sustained colder temps eastern US (lower right)
A close up look at the northern US/Great Lakes shows the sharp contrast between temperature regimes.
Max temperatures & Minimum temperatures vs average.
So far most of the lake effect communities across the Great Lakes have had slightly above normal snowfall.
Overall snowfall across the US is below last year
Next post we'll take a look at what December is looking like!
Tuesday, May 04, 2021
How Many 90 Degree Days This Summer? Check Out The Northern Ohio Summer 2021 Outlook
After an up and down, La Nina driven winter (cold mainly from late January through February) with slightly below normal snowfall with nearly 50 inches (our snowfall prediction was 55-65"), the question is: Will the same La Nina drive this summer's pattern?
First the April pattern recap:
High pressure was dominant over the northern Pacific and the north Atlantic. This drove temperatures well above normal during the first half of April. We had snow on April 1 in northern Ohio. 6-7 days late we reached 80 degrees!
Since the middle of the month, the pattern flipped. The northern Pacific ridge shifted over Alaska. The ridge over the north Atlantic shifted north over Greenland. Both ridges linked together over the North Pole. The trough developed underneath and across the eastern 2/3rd of the US with widespread below normal temperatures. We had snowfall on April 20th in northern Ohio, the 3rd most this late in the season ever (2005 was the most).
April 2021 high temperatures vs normal in Cleveland.
Late this winter and into early April the cooler water along the equator (La Nina) has been steady but slowly warming.
The depth of cool water is also becoming more shallow.
The MEI is another great measure of the ENSO state. It takes into account multiple oceanic and atmospheric variables (not just the ocean water temperatures) to produce an overall number either positive or negative. The current MEI is at 0.8. The MEI site's description here:
"The new version of the MEI (MEI.v2) has been created that uses 5 variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)) to produce a time series of ENSO conditions from 1979 to present"
The evolution of La Nina in years which are similar to the current event's development.
The model projections show weakening with some intensification of the La Nina late this summer/early fall. Since it take time (months) for the ocean/atmospheric state to completely transition out of its current state, I think this will have only small effects on the overall summer pattern.
Here is a great tutorial on La Nina from NOAA:
These are overlapping months (May through September) showing the upper level pattern.
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| 2018 |
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| 2012 |
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| 1999 |
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| 1996 |
Now summer temperatures (June, July and August) vs normal
What are we expecting this summer?
Based on top analogs looking at past La Nina summers along with other variables, we expect an above number of 90 degree days this summer especially in late July and August. A few 90s are highly possible into early September.
The ground moisture is running slightly below normal as of this writing (May 4). For comparison, last year we were running a rain surplus.
Over the last 3 weeks, the rainfall deficit has dropped across the state.
* Wet ground/above normal rainfall in May/early June will limit the expansion of heat and ease of reaching 90 degrees for multiple days. Drier ground over multiple states will enhance ridges of heat in summer making 90+ easier to attain deep into summer.
What are we watching?
* The position and strength of the Sonoran Ridge (high pressure) and the Bermuda high will dictate the position of the summer storm systems.
* Our analysis shows that these ridges especially the Bermuda High will develop by mid June and pulsate north frequently. The relaxation of the ridge periodically (flattening along the northern periphery) will allow storms to drift over the ridge and into the Ohio Valley especially in late June and July.
* We expect a more active July with storms.
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Snowfall Forecast Communication: We Need to do Better
I've written variations of this post many times over the last 5 or so years and it bears repeating. I rarely post snowfall maps/computer model projections further out than 2-3 days on social media platforms. Why? Look at these long range computer model projections starting Monday--4 days prior--for the snow event Friday and Saturday, January 12 and 13th.
Sunday Evening 1/7 (Model #1. I forgot to save Model #2 for comparison)
Monday Morning 1/8 (Model #1 vs #2)
Monday Evening 1/8 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)
Tuesday Evening 1/9 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)
Wednesday Evening 1/10 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)
Look at the HUGE difference between each model.
Many people posted these images online and even showed them on the air. In most instances these were shown to convey the fact that we had a long way to go before an official forecast could be made with a high degree of certainty. Uncertainty was being conveyed. It has the best of intentions. I get it. I've done it. Makes sense, right?
Except in the real world, most humans rarely interpret this type of information--data--through a rational filter. Data makes us feel conflicted. We, whether we like it or not, overly simplify complex ideas. Computer model projections are a prime example. That's how we're wired. It's well documented with behavioral scientists.
We look at the numbers, pick one out--say 20" of snowfall--react impulsively to it without historical perspective (by the way that's never happened in 24 hours from a general snow event since record keeping began) or context and before you know it, hysteria ensues. We see it on social media every time. Unfortunately social media reactions spread at an exponential rate devolving as the comment thread lengthens. Before you know it, the benign, educational intent of the snowfall uncertainty post is lost. It involuntarily morphs into a totally different story that spreads like wildfire changing with every re tweet and re post. The old game where you sit in a circle an say a sentence to the person to your right and that person to their right applies here. When the message comes back around to the beginning, it's changed entirely. Do you see the problem?
All of us meteorologists here at WJW FOX 8 always choose to wait until we have a high degree of certainty before we post any snowfall numbers usually in some sort of range. The aim is to eliminate what I just described in the paragraph above. This was my post Thursday morning, roughly 36 hours before the event begins. (Note: Andre Bernier, our evening meteorologist had a more basic snowfall map the night before not shown here)
How do we combat our hard wired human nature? The answer is simple: We don't. WE QUALITY CONTROL OUR INFORMATION!
Psychology plays a huge role in weather forecasts. As a meteorologist who reaches hundreds of thousands of people each morning on the top rated morning show in Cleveland, Ohio, I owe it to each viewer to quality control what I say and what I create visually to accompany it. The psychological element--how the viewer perceives what we say--is a critical weather cast element that is often overlooked by on air meteorologists. The words/numbers that we say/post on the air and online can be more powerful than the weather itself. In this age of posts solely created for clicks with the hopes of a long, viral lifespan, quality is too often sacrificed. That's fine for a cute picture or a clever, humorous meme but when a major weather event is eminent over a large population area, high quality information created for the masses is of the utmost importance.
Recently the National Weather Service has implemented a program in the works for several years that streamlines their winter season watches, advisories and warnings in an effort to simplify the forecast message for the general public. The great folks at the NWS Office in Cleveland recently hosted a seminar for media personnel highlighting these changes. The information was invaluable.
As meteorologist we always need to remember the psychology behind what we do. As communicators of science (data) need to put ourselves in the minds of the public and ask: "How is the viewer going to interpret what I say?" So when I create a snowfall forecast range map, I take into account how people react to EACH WORD knowing that many will perceive these range to fit their location.
We must remember:
Sunday Evening 1/7 (Model #1. I forgot to save Model #2 for comparison)
Monday Morning 1/8 (Model #1 vs #2)
Monday Evening 1/8 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)
Tuesday Evening 1/9 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)
Wednesday Evening 1/10 7PM (Model #1 vs #2)
Look at the HUGE difference between each model.
Many people posted these images online and even showed them on the air. In most instances these were shown to convey the fact that we had a long way to go before an official forecast could be made with a high degree of certainty. Uncertainty was being conveyed. It has the best of intentions. I get it. I've done it. Makes sense, right?
Except in the real world, most humans rarely interpret this type of information--data--through a rational filter. Data makes us feel conflicted. We, whether we like it or not, overly simplify complex ideas. Computer model projections are a prime example. That's how we're wired. It's well documented with behavioral scientists.
We look at the numbers, pick one out--say 20" of snowfall--react impulsively to it without historical perspective (by the way that's never happened in 24 hours from a general snow event since record keeping began) or context and before you know it, hysteria ensues. We see it on social media every time. Unfortunately social media reactions spread at an exponential rate devolving as the comment thread lengthens. Before you know it, the benign, educational intent of the snowfall uncertainty post is lost. It involuntarily morphs into a totally different story that spreads like wildfire changing with every re tweet and re post. The old game where you sit in a circle an say a sentence to the person to your right and that person to their right applies here. When the message comes back around to the beginning, it's changed entirely. Do you see the problem?
All of us meteorologists here at WJW FOX 8 always choose to wait until we have a high degree of certainty before we post any snowfall numbers usually in some sort of range. The aim is to eliminate what I just described in the paragraph above. This was my post Thursday morning, roughly 36 hours before the event begins. (Note: Andre Bernier, our evening meteorologist had a more basic snowfall map the night before not shown here)
How do we combat our hard wired human nature? The answer is simple: We don't. WE QUALITY CONTROL OUR INFORMATION!
Psychology plays a huge role in weather forecasts. As a meteorologist who reaches hundreds of thousands of people each morning on the top rated morning show in Cleveland, Ohio, I owe it to each viewer to quality control what I say and what I create visually to accompany it. The psychological element--how the viewer perceives what we say--is a critical weather cast element that is often overlooked by on air meteorologists. The words/numbers that we say/post on the air and online can be more powerful than the weather itself. In this age of posts solely created for clicks with the hopes of a long, viral lifespan, quality is too often sacrificed. That's fine for a cute picture or a clever, humorous meme but when a major weather event is eminent over a large population area, high quality information created for the masses is of the utmost importance.
Recently the National Weather Service has implemented a program in the works for several years that streamlines their winter season watches, advisories and warnings in an effort to simplify the forecast message for the general public. The great folks at the NWS Office in Cleveland recently hosted a seminar for media personnel highlighting these changes. The information was invaluable.
As meteorologist we always need to remember the psychology behind what we do. As communicators of science (data) need to put ourselves in the minds of the public and ask: "How is the viewer going to interpret what I say?" So when I create a snowfall forecast range map, I take into account how people react to EACH WORD knowing that many will perceive these range to fit their location.
We must remember:
* Public perception is very powerful
* We need to be better communicators of information
* Choice of words is of the utmost importance in conveying severity of the weather
* Mass media is for the masses. Risk is personal to the public. Yet people want personal forecasts. Huge conundrum.
* Human beings dislike uncertainty.
* Too much emphasis on uncertainty breeds confusion, inaction and ultimately apathy when the next snow or weather event of importance happens. Basic psychology here. We need to find a delicate balance between voicing uncertainty and sticking to a forecast geared to the general public without causing social media unrest
Thursday, June 01, 2017
Which Counties See the Most Spring Tornadoes in Northern Ohio?
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