How Many 90 Degree Days This Summer? Check Out The Northern Ohio Summer 2021 Outlook

After an up and down, La Nina driven winter (cold mainly from late January through February) with slightly below normal snowfall with nearly 50 inches (our snowfall prediction was 55-65"), the question is: Will the same La Nina drive this summer's pattern?

First the April pattern recap:  

High pressure was dominant over the northern Pacific and the north Atlantic. This drove temperatures well above normal during the first half of April. We had snow on April 1 in northern Ohio. 6-7 days late we reached 80 degrees!

Since the middle of the month, the pattern flipped.  The northern Pacific ridge shifted over Alaska. The ridge over the north Atlantic shifted north over Greenland.  Both ridges linked together over the North Pole. The trough developed underneath and across the eastern 2/3rd of the US with widespread below normal temperatures.  We had snowfall on April 20th in northern Ohio, the 3rd most this late in the season ever (2005 was the most).

Much of this was influenced by the high amplitude MJO in April rotating through phases 5 through 8.

April 2021 high temperatures vs normal in Cleveland.

Late this winter and into early April the cooler water along the equator (La Nina) has been steady but slowly warming. 

The depth of cool water is also becoming more shallow.

The MEI is another great measure of the ENSO state. It takes into account multiple oceanic and atmospheric variables (not just the ocean water temperatures) to produce an overall number either positive or negative. The current MEI is at 0.8. The MEI site's description here:

"The new version of the MEI (MEI.v2) has been created that uses 5 variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), surface zonal winds (U), surface meridional winds (V), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)) to produce a time series of ENSO conditions from 1979 to present"

The evolution of La Nina in years which are similar to the current event's development.

The model projections show weakening with some intensification of the La Nina late this summer/early fall. Since it take time (months) for the ocean/atmospheric state to completely transition out of its current state, I think this will have only small effects on the overall summer pattern.

Here is a great tutorial on La Nina from NOAA:

What do some of the similar past La Nina summer look like?

These are overlapping months (May through September) showing the upper level pattern. 

2018

2012

1999

1996

Now summer temperatures (June, July and August) vs normal

What are we expecting this summer?

Based on top analogs looking at past La Nina summers along with other variables, we expect an above number of 90 degree days this summer especially in late July and August. A few 90s are highly possible into early September.

The ground moisture is running slightly below normal as of this writing (May 4). For comparison, last year we were running a rain surplus.

Over the last 3 weeks, the rainfall deficit has dropped across the state.

Crop moisture is only slightly below normal but trending to near average

...same with the longer term Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

* Wet ground/above normal rainfall in May/early June will limit the expansion of heat and ease of reaching 90 degrees for multiple days.  Drier ground over multiple states will enhance ridges of heat in summer making 90+ easier to attain deep into summer. 

What are we watching?

*  The position and strength of the Sonoran Ridge (high pressure) and the Bermuda high will dictate the position of the summer storm systems. 

*  Our analysis shows that these ridges especially the Bermuda High will develop by mid June and pulsate north frequently. The relaxation of the ridge periodically (flattening along the northern periphery) will allow storms to drift over the ridge and into the Ohio Valley especially in late June and July. 

*  We expect a more active July with storms.

Who Really Supplies The Power: The Pitcher or The Hitter?

 I always grew up hearing this from coaches when a power pitcher was on the mound:

"He'll supply the power. Just make contact."

It seemed to make sense. The faster the ball hits the bat the further it will travel after impact.  Except the science says otherwise.

The formula to determine the speed at which the ball rebounds off the bat is:

                                                           v_exit = q v_pitch + (1 + q) v_bat

EXIT VELOCITY (OFF BAT) = ea * PITCH VELOCITY + 

(1 + ea) * SWING SPEED

Where v_exit  is the ball exit velocity, v_pitch is the velocity of the pitched ball and is the v_bat  speed of the bat.  "q" is COLLISION EFFICIENCY

Collision efficiencyvalue is between 1.0 and 2.0 depending on the squareness  of the hit. A well hit ball with a wood bat on the sweetspot gives a value of 2.0.   A detailed explanation of COLLISION EFFICIENCY is in this paper.  I used a value of 1.5 for q with graphs below.

So what does this formula tell us?  It shows mathematically that the batter's swing speed is 6 times more important than the pitch speed in creating higher exit velocity!

Graphs below show the exit velocities for 5 several bat speeds (60, 65,70,75,80 mph) as pitch speed increases from 65 to 100 mph. 

Notice how flat the exit velocity increases are for each bat speed. While there is an increase as the pitch speeds increase (pitch speed does have an influence) it's not a large one.

When we increase both the pitch speed AND the bat speed, the exit velocity increases more sharply.

So for a pitch speed of 65 mph and a relatively show bat speed of 60 mph, the exit velocity after a decently hit ball would be around 79 mph. An increase the pitch speed to 85-90 mph with a commensurate increase in bat speed to 70-75 mph would yield an exit velocity above 95 mph. Similarly a bat swung at 80 mph making contact with a 95 mph pitch would cause the ball to leave the bat at 105+ mph.  

Bat speed not pitch speed supplies most of the power!

Let's Clear Up A Few Things...

Many wonder why I write so much about the psychology of weather. If you read the comments on most of my posts over the last several weeks you'll see why: They believe what they want to believe. They use social media as a conduit to say whatever impulsive thought they want without recourse. Perception is the ultimate reality.

I use social media and my blog to show why weather events occur the way they do. I post stats and records about past weather to show some perspective in the hope that this will help viewers of our station and the general reader. Often times it just doesn't work...much to my dismay.

So let's clear up a few things. Rather than use science to explain the why we do what we do, I'm using straight forward bullet points. Let's wipe the slate clean and start out fresh and new as we approach the end of the year.

*******************

1) It WILL snow at some point. It always does. And no, I don't like snow.

2) The warm weather is playing with our minds.  Our weather perceptions (cognitive biases if you will) are very strong.  We are not immune.  We are all human.  Recognition of these preconceived notions is the first step in an objective understanding the weather and the science that governs it.

2a)  We hate forecast uncertainty. Here's why LINK

3) Contrary to what you might believe, weather forecasts are more accurate than they were 15 years ago.  According to this study, "the accuracy of the 8-10 day forecast today are similar to a 5-7 day forecast 15 years ago. Hurricane accuracy is greatly improved since Hurricane Katrina LINK.

4) Our morning show here at FOX 8 is on for 6 hours. The weather forecast between 4 and 10am can change as the conditions change. Forecasts are not frozen in time during each newscast.  The weather doesn't stop for television.

5) The decision to break into a popular TV show or sporting event with a weather update is NOT an impulsive one. Stations have different philosophies on when to break into programming. I can't speak for the others. However, my station WJW-FOX 8 only breaks during a tornado warning or a significant winter weather event (widespread, blizzard-like snow). If you send a comment complaining about our stringent guidelines, you obviously care more about football than being warned when a tornado warning is issued.

6) Contrary to many weather maps on the air, the atmosphere is three dimensional and ever changing. Imagine the atmosphere (especially during sleet, freezing rain events) like layers of a wedding cake.  Each layer of icing represents the different layers of air at different temperatures with different types of precipitation.

Note: The wedding cake analogy is mine and mine alone. I invented it.

7) Moon or sun halos are not uncommon. They are beautiful sights caused by the bending, splitting and reflecting of sunlight through ice crystal clouds.  We have hundreds of photos.

8) I'm not a fan of phone weather apps that promise super-local weather forecasts for your backyard. They are like unicorns.  They don't exist.  Most are computer generated data approximated based on your location via GPS.  I trust a human generated forecast (via NWS or your local tv station) every day of the week.

9) Jet contrails are not chem-trails.  They, like, unicorns don't exist.  I don't like conspiracy theories.

10) I have no control of weather, news or school closing promos that run 15 times per hour. The promotions department is on the first floor.

11) These above normal December temperatures were mentioned in a blog post on my weather blog in early September and again in our FOX 8 winter weather outlook. Yes, pre-Christmas warmth has happened before.  Remember 1982?

12) Simply because the weather has been warm or cold, wet or dry doesn't confirm or deny climate change in any form. I'm an operational meteorologist who happens to be on television.  Keep your subjectivity or bias to yourself.  So please don't send me anecdotal evidence confirming your preconceived notions.  See number 2 above for the reasons why.

13) We forget that last December was above normal with no snow for only the 3rd time in 140 years.  Christmas week in 2014 was the 8th warmest on record in northern Ohio.

14) This warmth is driven by BOTH El Nino and a strong Polar Vortex not just El Nino. Remember the Polar Vortex from last winter?  Yes, it's real (LINK)

15) Storm systems like what we are seeing currently which develop over Texas and move northeast--termed "Panhandle Hooks"--are more common in El Ninos.  Wet snows are more common from Texas through the mid-Atlantic in these years.

16) Contrary to what we believe, you cannot use one or two days or a weeks worth of weather as a predictor or the season ahead. In other words, a warm or cold December is not an indicator of the spring or summer ahead. The drivers of winter aren't necessarily the drivers of spring and summer.  It's not an apples to apples comparison.  (Remember December 2014 was warmer than normal.  Then the bottom fell out: January through February was the 6th coldest on record, coldest since 1978)

17) The fact that I have said over the last week that colder air in January will replace the relative warmth in December doesn't mean the entire winter will be colder than average. (see FOX 8 outlook issued in October)

18) Lake Erie water temperature is 45 degrees. It's been this warm before on the 22nd of December: 2001 and 1998 for starters.  The water temperature is taken at a depth of 30 feet. No one seems to have an answer as to why.

19) There is a TON of science behind seasonal outlooks. The Farmers' Almanac is not science (although I enjoy reading it).  Weather consulting companies issue seasonal outlooks tailored for their clients. This sector has grown significantly in recent years.

20) Many readers will ignore everything I typed here and replace it with their own conclusions regardless of their validity.

I reserve the right to add to this list.

I hope this helps.

Why Do We Dismiss The Science Of Weather So Easily?

Weather is just as much psychology as it is science. I've written about this several times HERE, HERE, and HERE. 

 I call it "Behavioral Meteorology".

Most people find it very difficult to grasp the fact that the weather is one big approximation.  Weather should be exact right?  Well, we humans hate probability.  Why? For our minds to grasp probabilities and randomness, we need to be able to handle multiple possible outcomes at once. We all want a forecast that fits a nice and neat one-size-fits-all package.  Weather has many, many outcomes over a large area over a significant period of time. Change the initial weather conditions (humidity, wind flow, frontal position, upper level energy, etc) and you create more uncertainty. Factor in time and the probability becomes significantly higher. We want to visualize a line of showers that moves in at a specific time, stays for a select amount of time and then moves out without fanfare. Unfortunately, rain events especially the hit and miss storms that we’ve had across the area recently rarely behave in this manner.

I'd like to say that I make a forecast whether short or long term with a cold, rational, scientific eye but I don't. I take into account how the general public will react to EVERY word knowing that most selectively perceive the weather to fit their "sphere of reality". I learned that quickly years ago. For all of the simulations, super-computers, highly detailed satellite data, it doesn't matter how exact your forecast is or what scientific reasoning you used in coming to your conclusion, people will ignore the facts and the data that disagree with their perceptions and will "rationalize" what they want and react accordingly. More often than not, the reactions are very critical. Worse still, its accumulative. The more we selectively perceive the weather to fit our negative connotation, the more hyper critical our reaction and the more rigid our bias becomes. Its a vicious circle that feeds on itself.  I’ve notice this change over the last 10-15 years. This is called the Disconfirmation Bias. Its the tendency to accept supportive evidence of a belief uncritically, but to discount evidence that challenges that belief.  

Recently, many have already postulated that this string of 80+ degree warmth is proof that this summer will be warmer than we thought.  Its a classic example of the RECENCY EFFECT: This is the tendency to think that more recent trends and patterns we observe (which are more recent in our minds like our recent mild winters) are a very good representation of the entire period in question. We believe our memories and observations--recent warmth and humidity--are excellent predictors of what the near future will bring.  Throw in the thousands of weather apps out there that claim to provide the forecast for YOUR location along with the laundry list of cognitive biases (some mentioned above) and you have the confluence of many psychological elements that are difficult to overcome with rational discussion.

It all goes back to basic human nature. A good weather narrative or story is desired versus something data/science driven. Nebulous weather data and science makes most of us feel uncomfortable even if the on-air meteorologist has the best of intentions.  Sophisticated computer models of the weather have made some very good “probabilistic” outcomes for weather events and situations.. Yet a level of uncertainty still remains and we humans don’t like it! We try to rationalize the irrational. Our biases quickly dismiss the probabilistic science as irrelevant or at the very worst, an excuse.

Each day, I analyze the science and remember the psychology. How you react when you hear a weather forecast? Do you dismiss the science? How do you handle probability? Do you like hearing an explanation to why the weather does what it does? Do you overly simplify the weather?

Deep thoughts this morning...Hmmmmm.

.

Super Large Solar Flare - Changing Climate?

A few weeks back, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory scheduled to observe the sun for the next years while in orbit around the earth took this video of a solar flare emanating from the sun.  It takes a second or two to load.



I took a snapshot of one of the frames and drew the earth to scale so that you can the see the incredible size of this flare. Roughly 435,000 miles!

Many scientists believe that we are coming out of a period of low solar activity and trending into a period of more solar flares.  Some also believe that this increase in solar activity has a direct impact on our climate.  Some believe that the solar activity has very little effect on our global climate.  Only time will tell. 

Total Lunar Eclipse/Winter Solstice

A Total Lunar Eclipse on the Winter Solstice.  Doesn't happen very often.

Credit: Space.com

A lunar eclipse occurs when the earth's shadow passes in front of the moon obscuring the sun's light from hitting the moon directly.  Some does get through producing a reddish/rusty color from our perspective on earth.

Add in this event occurring on the winter solstice and it becomes very rare.  The last time it happened was in 1638.  Beyond this date, we really don't know for sure because the earth's rotation changes over time.  The further we go back, the actual lunar eclipse dates become less accurate.  Still, almost 400 years is a really long time.

Most articles list 2094 as the next total lunar eclipse date on a winter solstice.  But this one will only be visible in Europe and Asia.  So I checked the lunar tables on the NASA ECLIPSE SITE and came up with this date for all of us in Cleveland.

DECEMBER 21, 2466, starts at 7:19 PM

Here is the chart if you want to check the date out.  Its at the bottom in red.

 

Indeed a long way off so get ready early!

LARGEST Indonesian Volcano - ERUPTS THIS MORNING

From the Associated Press:



MOUNT MERAPI, Indonesia — Searing gas avalanched down an Indonesian volcano with a thunderous roar, torching houses and trees and incinerating villagers as they fled Mount Merapi's worst eruption in a century. Scores of bodies found Friday raised the death toll to 122.

The injured - with clothes, blankets and even mattresses fused to their skin by the 1,400 degree Fahrenheit (750 degree Celsius) heat - were carried away on stretchers following the first big explosion just before midnight.

All Friday, Merapi shot towering plumes of ash that dusted the windshields of cars 300 miles (480 kilometers) away. Bursts of hot clouds occasionally interrupted aid efforts, with rescuers screaming "Watch out! Hot cloud!"

The intensifying eruptions have baffled scientists who have monitored the mountain for years and left them uncertain what to expect. Dozens of explosions that followed Merapi's initial blast Oct. 26 had been predicted to ease pressure behind a magma dome.

The danger zone where residents have been ordered to flee has now been expanded to 12 miles (20 kilometers) from the crater.

Friday's explosion - said by volcanologists to be the biggest since the 1870s - hit hardest in Bronggang, a village nine miles (15 kilometers) from the crater. Soldiers joined the rescue operations, pulling at least 78 bodies from homes and streets blanketed by ash up to one foot (30 centimeters) deep.

 "We're totally overwhelmed here!" said Heru Nogroho, a spokesman at Sardjito.

In terms of the amount of volcanic material released - 1,765 million cubic feet (50 million cubic meter), "it was the biggest in at least a century," Gede Swantika, a state volcanologist, said as plumes of smoke continued to shoot up more than 30,000 feet (10,000 meters).

Indonesian Volcano Erupts Again!

Eruptions continue from Mount Merapi in Indonesia blasting ash tens of thousands of feet into the sky killing six more people Thursday as the overall death toll hits 44.  This volcano is one of the world's most active volcanoes in the last 100 years.  In 1994, eruptions killed 60 people; in 1930, more than 1000 people were killed in another violent eruption.  These eruptions contain a mixture of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and water vapor gas with temperatures near 500 degrees. 

Indonesia and the thousands of islands that make up the south Pacific region and the more than 200 million people that call this home live on the "Ring of Fire".  The area of islands along with the edge of the Pacific that runs through the Asian coastlines, around Alaska and down along the western coast of North America is named as such due to its position on fault lines that separate the continents.  These fault lines are the focal point for major earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions.

The Pacific Ring of Fire has almost 500 volcanoes.  90% of the world's earthquakes occur in thie region.  The Ring was created over millions of years due to Plate Tectonics--the movement of the continents on rock that is under great pressure and heat at a depth of between 65 and 120 miles beneath the surface.  This heat and pressure allows the rock to become "flexible" just enough for the landmasses around the planet to ride along it at speeds measured in centimeters per year.  The Ring of Fire is the intersection of many of these plates.   Some of these plates move underneath other as is the case in California.

The first volcanic blast from Mount Merapi back on October 26th caused a tsunami impacting the Mentawi islands killing hundreds of people.

Scientists believe that these eruptions may get worse in the days and weeks ahead.