Do We Need More Rain After Last Week?

One quick update first from the National Weather Service in Cleveland.

...The short answer to that question is NO. The long answer to it is YES.

Here is a graph showing our actual rainfall versus the normal rainfall for all of Ohio over the last 2 weeks.

No wonder why the grass is so much greener recently.  90% Northeastern Ohio is above normal since May 1st.

Now, look at the map showing actual rainfall versus the normal rainfall over the last month.

A totally different picture.  Aside from some select areas where severe storms developed last week, more than 50% of Northeastern Ohio is still slightly below normal over the long haul.

Coming up Monday and Tuesday, we'll talk about the MUCKELHEADS!

Stormchaser Video from Monday, May 10, 2010

Credit:  www.twisterchaser.net, Northeastern Ohio storm chaser for the video and commentary

More information on this storm chase  HERE at TWISTERCHASER.NET

"Today we chased a mesocyclone from the Western panhandle of Oklahoma into Texas, got some great footage of initial rotation and lightning, this storm did produce 1 tornado but it was on our southwest side and it was rain-wrapped so we couldn’t see it. It eventually weakened but left us with some great photo opportunities and footage, will post those pictures tomorrow, however I did want to post my first official footage clip, this was one of the first tornadoes that touched down on Monday just south of Wakita before all the chaos ensued"

Odds of Getting Struck by Lightning and other Weather

After a rough weather week and a much quieter weekend ahead, let's have some fun looking at weather odds.

Many people are deathly afraid of severe weather.  Are the chances of getting killed by severe storms as high as what most people believe?  According to the bookofodds.com, the chances of being killed by a tornado are:

1 in 4, 513,000

For comparison, the chances of dying from a fall off a cliff is:

1 in 4,101,000

The bookofodds.com correctly points out these facts about the deadliest tornado on record:

"The tornado with the highest death count was the 1925 Tri-State Tornado, which ravaged a path a mile wide and 219 miles across through Missouri, Illinois,and Indiana. The speed was 60 miles per hour—twice the forward speed of the average tornado. Although the Tri-State Tornado lacked the classic funnel cloud, and was therefore virtually invisible, the damage was catastrophic: nearly 2,000 people were injured, property losses totaled more than $16 million, and 689 people died."

The Deadliest Weather of the Decade; Top ten states/chances of getting killed by weather. (1999 to 2008). A word of caution: A distaster like Hurricane Katrina will significantly skew these chances higher for the state effected.

1. Louisiana 1 in 49,330
2 Mississippi 1 in 112,700
3 Alaska 1 in 116,900
4 Wyoming 1 in 173,800
5 Missouri 1 in 182,900
6 Oklahoma 1 in 240,500
7 Arkansas 1 in 287,800
8 Kansas 1 in 290,300
9 Illinois 1 in 303,900
10 Utah 1 in 337,700

The odds of getting by lightning: 1 in 835,500

The odds of getting killed by hail: 1 in 734,400,000

The odds of a meteor landing on your house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000

A few odds and ends comparing severe weather odds to other odds.

A 10-character password yields 59,873,693,923,837,890,625 combinations.

80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000 The number of way to order a 52 card deck

More Severe Possible Today

A few storms earlier today along the warm front.   They moved away very fast.

I rarely go into the science into weather forecasting mainly because it bores most people.  People want an accurate forecast and could care less where you get it or how you come up with it.

CLICK HERE FOR THE COMPLETE FORECAST AT FOX8.COM


CLICK HERE FOR THE NEWEST FOX8.COM RADAR IMAGE LIKE THE ONE BELOW

Since we've had several severe weather events over the last week, I figure that this is good time to go over some of the parameters that are analyzed in determining whether or not severe weather is possible.

Today, another two pronged system is developing in the middle of the US early Thursday morning.  The first wave is along the warm front which pushes through Ohio later on this morning/early afternoon.  Temperatures surge into the 70s after the warm front goes north.

After that, the cold front approaches with plenty of energy with it.

The components for today's severe weather are these:

* Humid air
* Warm temperatures & sunshine
* Strong cold front/lots of lift
* Changing wind direction from the ground up to 18,000 feet

How Massive is the Oil Spill? Tornado Video

A new image from NASA's recent earth imagery section shows the massive extent of the Oil Spill.  The legend at the top shows a 25 kilometer length (15 miles).  That is roughly 120 miles long!

Oklahoma City Tornadoes - May 10th

Monday evening just outside of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, a tornado outbreak began killing 5 and injuring dozens of others.

Here is a photo that my sister's neighbor took as one of these approached the area.  

A brandnew photo of my sister and her kids in the neighbor's storm shelter.  The shelter is approximitely 4 feet by 10 feet.

The National Weather Service office in Norman, Oklahoma created this preliminary map of the tornadoes after the event.  More information about each tornado will be released once severe weather surveyers inspect the damage to determine the intensity of each tornado.

Friday's Severe Weather Recap

Friday marked the first time Cleveland, Akron and Canton (The NE Ohio metro area) was under a TORNADO WATCH in roughly 4 years.  The setup for severe weather was tremendous yet no TORNADOES. 

(ALL GRAPHICS COURTESY OF THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CLEVELAND, OHIO)

The Storm Prediction Center put northern Ohio under a MODERATE RISK early in the morning.  Northern Ohio is rarely under a MODERATE RISK--maybe once every two years--so the experts believed that this could have been deadly.

The Tornado Watch was issued at 3:50PM then the extension through 11PM

The radar at the peak of the event

Storm reports of wind and hail damage

The winds after the severe event was over and the cold front moved through

1ST MODERATE RISK/SEVERE WEATHER - CLEVELAND TORNADO WATCH HISTORY

Friday, May 7th marks the first MODERATE RISK issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Northeastern Ohio.  Maybe once a year at best is Northern Ohio under a MODERATE RISK.  What usually follows is a TORNADO WATCH which also doesn't happen in the Cleveland/Akron metro area very often.  How infrequent does it happen?

I scanned the Storm Prediction Center archives for all of the Tornado Watches over the last several years to see if any were issued over the core of Northeastern Ohio.  Surprisingly, I had to go all of the way back to 2006 to find one.

There have been a few tornado watches affecting fringe counties but not many in the center of the area.

Here are the Tornado Watches in reverse order since the last CLEVELAND/AKRON METRO TORNADO WATCH back in 2006:  These maps are created by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.  Each map has the "WATCH BOX:, counties in watch box with radar.
 

2009 NO Tornado Watches for Northern Ohio

2008 Tornado Watches

2007 Tornado Watches

2006 Tornado Watches

HERE IT IS.  THE LAST CLEVELAND/AKRON METRO TORNADO WATCH

Turmoil in Greece? Greek Satellite and Weather

Greece is in the midst of a government shutdown, abankrupt government and rioting in the streets. Will the weather affect the instability in Greece?

The forecast for Greece from the HELLENIC NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE is here

Remember that all temperatures and rainfall amounts are metric.  So temperatures are in Celsius and the rain amounts are in millimeters!

Click HERE for the most recent Greek satellite image and loop.

The New Tornado Alley and Ohio Tornado History

Michael Frates, grad-student at the University of Akron mapped out all F3, F4 and F5 tornadoes (the strongest tornadoes) from 1950 through 2006 which stayed on the ground for at least 20 miles. What he came up with is several regions or "alleys" where the strongest tornadoes occurred. First two images courtesy:  Michael Frates

The traditional "tornado alley" through Oklahoma and Kansas still remains and is very accurate.

However, two additional zones of higher frequency of F3-F5 tornadoes he found to exist in the south (Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama), and also in Indiana, central Kentucky and western Ohio.

This also corresponds to the average number of overall tornadoes here.

As we focus on each of the 88 counties in Ohio, the largest number of tornadoes since 1950 is Lorain and Richland counties.

The largest outbreak of tornadoes occurred in April of 1974.   Over a 24 hour period, 147 tornadoes were confirmed from southern Michigan to southern Alabama totalling 2600 miles of tornado path length.  Notice how the strongest tornadoes that day developed in the "new" tornado alley (Indiana and the south).

Back in 1985, eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania and New York was devestated by a series of incredible tornadoes.  Newton Falls and Niles, Ohio near Youngstown were hit by an F5 tornado.11 people were killed marking this tornado outbreak as the most deadly since the 1974 outbreak. 

In more recent times (since 1989), northeastern Ohio has had some strong tornadoes as well.  Each triangle denotes the location and the strength of each tornado on a scale of 0 to 5.  Notice the two F3 tornadoes; one in the Akron area and the other NW of Medina.

So far, this year has been quiet.  Let's hope it stays that way.