Many Tornadoes In Ohio Thus Far. How Does This Compare to Past Years?

 

Uncharacteristically, late February and March thus far, has been a very active period for severe weather across Ohio. While we do see more frequent day-to-day weather fluctuation across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio this month (and April) than in any other month, severe weather doesn't always accompany these changes.

The first severe weather event occurred on February 28th. 

Only 2 hail reports with this first round in late February. No tornadoes.  Most of the storm reports (hail, wind and tornadoes) were across central Ohio.

The second round was far more extensive March. A total of 18 tornado warnings across Ohio and 6 in northeastern Ohio. The NWS in Cleveland also has a great recap here.

5 tornadoes were confirmed in northeastern Ohio. A total of 15 across Ohio.

Storm Reports in March 2024

Radar - March 14, 2024

So far this year's Ohio severe weather reports:

Plymouth, Ohio damage from March 14, 2024 tornado

Is the number of tornado unprecedented for Ohio through late March?  I looked back at the total OHIO tornado count through March since 1950 and separated the totals (red)  with the EF2+ totals (green).  Here is what I found:

Ohio Tornado Count: 1950 - 1985 (thru March)

Ohio Tornado Count: 1986 - 2024 (thru march)

There were brief upticks in tornadoes in the mid 50s and a few instances in the 70s but nothing        really high.  The peaks were 1985, 1986, 2012, 2016 and 2017. Here is the early season 1986 tornado tracks:

Here are some additional bullet points on the graphics above:

*  Two of the three tornadoes in 1992 were EF2+.  One was an EF4.

*  The 1991 tornado was an EF3

*  Six of the nine early season tornadoes in 1986 were EF2+

However, over the last 2 years, early season Ohio tornado counts have rose significantly.  17 in 2023.  26 in 2024 through March. Five of those were EF2 tornadoes. One was in Crawford/Huron counties.

For spatial perspective here is the January through March tornado locations for 2023 and 2024:

Jan, Feb, March Tornado Locations - 2023

Jan, Feb, March tornado locations - 2024

Tornado warnings in 2023 through mid March vs tornado warning in 2024 through mid March:

2023

What were the causes of the uptick last year and this year?  Is this a fluke increase or something that we will see more in the years ahead?

One piece to the puzzle may be the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). This was in a high amplitude state in both years.  First image is last Jan through March 2023, second image is this year through late March. (More on this in the weeks ahead)

Strong Phase 7,8 and 1 in March of 2023

Strong phase 4,5 and 6 in March 2024

In my opinion, it's hard to draw a long term conclusion based on only a few severe weather events over a few weeks. So while we had two years with an uptick in early season tornadoes in Ohio, we need to monitor the next 3-5 years to see if a trend develops.

Heavy Rain and Storms Today

Our first real taste of widespread rain and storms since late last year. Rainfall amounts could exceed an inch over the next 24 hours where heavier downpours develop.



Current LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE


Severe storms are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has places northern Ohio in a SLIGHT RISK with the biggest threat coming from HIGH WINDS.

Remember, the SPC has changed their severe risk categories. Here is a chart comparing the old to the new.

A severe storm does not mean that storm will include tornadoes as many believe. In fact, less than 10 PERCENT or severe storms produce tornadoes.

Current Ohio Valley radar loop

Heavy Rain Update: Flash Flood Potential VERY HIGH

The ground is saturated from Monday's rain. An additional 1-3" of rain a very good possibility over the next 18 hours. Flash Flooding is the greatest concern. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTHERN OHIO UNTIL 10PM THIS EVENING. THIS MIGHT BE EXTENDED.

CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND CURRENT OHIO TEMPERATURES




OHIO TEMPERATURES


OHIO VALLEY RADAR LOOP



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Why The Surprise Tornado In Brunswick, Ohio?

Yesterday (Monday 6-24-2014), a tornado touched down just south of RT. 303 in Brunswick without a tornado warning. (Note: A severe thunderstorm warning was issued by the NWS). What caused this tornado to develop? Was this tornado something that could have been foreseen? What happened?

Check out the radar loop I uploaded from yesterday (Monday evening).

Notice two elements: 1) The line or boundary just south of Lake Erie and 2) The other boundary that moved north of Wooster. These boundaries are called "outflow boundaries" or a "Gust Front". Put simply, these boundaries are like waves that propagate away from a boat that passes In this case, The boundary marks an area of sinking, cooler air that moves away from the first line of storms northeast of Cleveland. Some look like this:

As the boundary moved south away from Lake Erie (and north from near Wooster) it acted as a super-small scale cold front lifting the warm/moist air ahead of it enhancing the storm cluster already moving in from the west causing rotation and ultimately a tornado with winds of at least 110 mph. The convergence of these two boundaries and the established storm from the west (which already had minimal rotation according to the Cleveland NWS) provided the necessary ingredients for a rapidly developing tornado. All of this occurred within 10-15 minutes. Something like this is nearly impossible to forecast.

Awesome Power of Lightning

This video was taken from a security camera from outside the Saratoga Spring Performing Arts Center at the Saratoga Spa State Park in New York back on June 3rd. Notice the tree at the top of the screen below the "4" in "2014".

This is what 50,000+ degrees and a million volts of electricity can do in a fraction of a second.

1953 Ohio Tornado Photos

It was back in 1953, June 8th to be exact, that another tornado outbreak occurred in Ohio and Michigan which killed many people.  Here are two photos of the tornado from different locations.  The first was taken at Hopkins Airport.  The second was taken in Wood county; the same county where last weekend's tornado resulted in many fatalities.

Tornado warnings didn't exist in 1953.  In fact, it was illegal to mention the word "tornado" prior to World War II.  The tornado pictured below was an F4 with winds of over 260 miles per hour.   The tornado touched down in Birmingham, Ohio around 8:30PM and continued east.

It approached Hopkins Airport and continued into the western suburbs.  Damage was reported from West 130th to West 117th and Bellaire where 100 homes were leveled.  The tornado was around a 1/2 mile wide as it approached West 45th street around 10PM.  Damage from West 28th to West 25th and Detroit was incredibly severe.  Five people were killed in one home at Franklin Circle.  The tornado, now retreating back into the cloud, passed directly over Terminal Tower in downtown Cleveland.  The funnel cloud moved out over Lake Erie at East 40th street and fell apart.  A total of 18 deaths were reported across Ohio on June 8th.

An interesting footnote on the tornado outbreak:  Many thought that the tornado outbreak resulted from the atomic testing in Nevada.  A congressional investigation was pushed but never materialized.  Photos and material credit:  Dick Goddard

The tornado track from tornadohistoryproject.com

Northern Ohio Tornado Outbreak on June 5th and 6th

The tornado outbreak this past weekend across northern Ohio was somewhat of a rarity in that it resulted in fatalities.  The last tornado in northern Ohio that resulted in a death was in 2002. Prior to that, it was in the mid 1980s.

The Wood County tornado in northwestern Ohio Saturday night was upgraded to an EF4 by the National Weather Service.  It first touched down near I-80 and Oregon Road (East of Perrysburg) at 11:15 PM EDT and then moved through the south side of Moline and then near Metcalf Airport. The tornado then crossed the northwest side of Millbury into Ottaway County following Trowbridge Road and lifted at 11:30 PM EDT just west of Clay Center. At least 50 buildings were damaged or destroyed.  Here is a map of the path and damage with the radar loop as the tornado passed through.  The tornado recap is as follows:

The complete update from the National Weather Service is HERE

3 Other tornadoes were also confirmed in northern Ohio. Here is a basic map with path length, width and wind speeds.  The EF4 was the Wood County tornado.  The EF0 moved through Richland county 2 miles north of Lucas.  The northern EF1 tornado touched down southwest of Andover near the intersection of Mann Road and Creek Road traveling ENE.  The southern EF1 tornado developed in Holmes county 2 miels northwest of Berlin and moved southeast to Walnut Creek, Ohio then onto Sugarcreek in Tuscarawas County.  All information is courtesy of the National Weather Service HERE ON THEIR WEBSITE. Click on "previous version" numbers for the details of each tornado.

Niles, Newton Falls Tornado of 1985

It was 25 year ago back on May 31,  1985. A tornado outbreak occurred in northeastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and New York and portions of Canada. The most intense tornado touched down near the Ravenna Arsenal in Portage County and continued on the ground for almost 50 miles.  It devasted Niles, Newton Falls, Hubbard, killed dozens of people and continued into Pennsylvania.

This tornado was an EF-5, the strongest of all tornadoes with winds of more than 300 mph and a width of a mile and a half.  This was the last EF-5 tornado to hit Ohio and the first since the Xenia tornado outbreak back in 1974.

Thunderstorms began to develop in the late afternoon east of Cleveland as the temperatures rose into the middle 80s.  The upper levels of the atmosphere were ripe with energy. For anoutbreak of severe weather to occur, you need a "dry slot" in the middle of the atmosphere.

This allows the super-humid to "rise" into air that isn't saturated.  If the air in the middle of the atmosphere wasn't dry, storms couldn't have risen and blossomed into severe storms.  In this case, the air was dry all of the way out to Missouri.

The storms didn't look that impressive from space.

By midnight that night, 21 tornadoes had touched town in Northeast Ohio along along with the only F5 tornado (the strongest) in the Unite States.

Here are some great links showing more specifics on the tornado outbreak.  Special thanks to the NWS in Cleveland for the meteorology of that day and these additional sites for their photos and commentary.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/office/localinterest/1985Tornado/storm_data.pdf

http://www.angelfire.com/pa/pawx/053185.html

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05149/511826.stm

Amazing Hail Storm Video

Credit:  National Weather Service, Norman, Oklahoma for analysis and photo

Stormchaser Video from Monday, May 10, 2010

Credit:  www.twisterchaser.net, Northeastern Ohio storm chaser for the video and commentary

More information on this storm chase  HERE at TWISTERCHASER.NET

"Today we chased a mesocyclone from the Western panhandle of Oklahoma into Texas, got some great footage of initial rotation and lightning, this storm did produce 1 tornado but it was on our southwest side and it was rain-wrapped so we couldn’t see it. It eventually weakened but left us with some great photo opportunities and footage, will post those pictures tomorrow, however I did want to post my first official footage clip, this was one of the first tornadoes that touched down on Monday just south of Wakita before all the chaos ensued"

Odds of Getting Struck by Lightning and other Weather

After a rough weather week and a much quieter weekend ahead, let's have some fun looking at weather odds.

Many people are deathly afraid of severe weather.  Are the chances of getting killed by severe storms as high as what most people believe?  According to the bookofodds.com, the chances of being killed by a tornado are:

1 in 4, 513,000

For comparison, the chances of dying from a fall off a cliff is:

1 in 4,101,000

The bookofodds.com correctly points out these facts about the deadliest tornado on record:

"The tornado with the highest death count was the 1925 Tri-State Tornado, which ravaged a path a mile wide and 219 miles across through Missouri, Illinois,and Indiana. The speed was 60 miles per hour—twice the forward speed of the average tornado. Although the Tri-State Tornado lacked the classic funnel cloud, and was therefore virtually invisible, the damage was catastrophic: nearly 2,000 people were injured, property losses totaled more than $16 million, and 689 people died."

The Deadliest Weather of the Decade; Top ten states/chances of getting killed by weather. (1999 to 2008). A word of caution: A distaster like Hurricane Katrina will significantly skew these chances higher for the state effected.

1. Louisiana 1 in 49,330
2 Mississippi 1 in 112,700
3 Alaska 1 in 116,900
4 Wyoming 1 in 173,800
5 Missouri 1 in 182,900
6 Oklahoma 1 in 240,500
7 Arkansas 1 in 287,800
8 Kansas 1 in 290,300
9 Illinois 1 in 303,900
10 Utah 1 in 337,700

The odds of getting by lightning: 1 in 835,500

The odds of getting killed by hail: 1 in 734,400,000

The odds of a meteor landing on your house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000

A few odds and ends comparing severe weather odds to other odds.

A 10-character password yields 59,873,693,923,837,890,625 combinations.

80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000 The number of way to order a 52 card deck

More Severe Possible Today

A few storms earlier today along the warm front.   They moved away very fast.

I rarely go into the science into weather forecasting mainly because it bores most people.  People want an accurate forecast and could care less where you get it or how you come up with it.

CLICK HERE FOR THE COMPLETE FORECAST AT FOX8.COM


CLICK HERE FOR THE NEWEST FOX8.COM RADAR IMAGE LIKE THE ONE BELOW

Since we've had several severe weather events over the last week, I figure that this is good time to go over some of the parameters that are analyzed in determining whether or not severe weather is possible.

Today, another two pronged system is developing in the middle of the US early Thursday morning.  The first wave is along the warm front which pushes through Ohio later on this morning/early afternoon.  Temperatures surge into the 70s after the warm front goes north.

After that, the cold front approaches with plenty of energy with it.

The components for today's severe weather are these:

* Humid air
* Warm temperatures & sunshine
* Strong cold front/lots of lift
* Changing wind direction from the ground up to 18,000 feet

Oklahoma City Tornadoes - May 10th

Monday evening just outside of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, a tornado outbreak began killing 5 and injuring dozens of others.

Here is a photo that my sister's neighbor took as one of these approached the area.  

A brandnew photo of my sister and her kids in the neighbor's storm shelter.  The shelter is approximitely 4 feet by 10 feet.

The National Weather Service office in Norman, Oklahoma created this preliminary map of the tornadoes after the event.  More information about each tornado will be released once severe weather surveyers inspect the damage to determine the intensity of each tornado.