November 2021 Recap: Where Did The Temperatures End Up?

After a super warm October around most of the country, November featured more periods of "cold" across the eastern US.

First the October temperatures vs average

Now the November temperatures vs average (US)

Breaking down November into weekly periods you can see how variable the temperatures were as the split jet stream shifted week to week.  First week was colder than normal (lower left) across eastern US. The cold backed off the second week as the jet weakened as it lifted back into central Canada (upper right)

Third week featured the return of the northern jet across the northern states (upper left below) with colder periods more frequent (lower left).  By November 16-18, southern jet became stronger with a more uniform northern jet more southeast. The result was warmer temps out west with more sustained colder temps eastern US (lower right)

A close up look at the northern US/Great Lakes shows the sharp contrast between temperature regimes.

Max temperatures & Minimum temperatures vs average. 

So far most of the lake effect communities across the Great Lakes have had slightly above normal snowfall.

Overall snowfall across the US is below last year

Next post we'll take a look at what December is looking like!

Welcome Changes to Flood Watch/Warnings - NWS

In an effort to simplify the communication of weather information, the National Weather Service has now consolidated all types of FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  This will help the public significantly.

Will This Warmth Give Way To More Cold By Thanksgiving Week?

The pattern is looking more favorable for cold as the east coast trough becomes deeper and much wider.  Here is the GFS model showing the trough developing then reloading by the 20th of November.

Northern Pacific pattern is very progressive.  Lows sliding out of eastern Asia, across the dateline, the Aleutian Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska before they dive into the northern US. 

I hesitate showing a snowfall map like this but it tells the GENERAL story:  Bursts of cold.  Fast moving systems.  Warmer than normal Great Lakes.  All of this points to a good possibility for snow at some point the week of November 15-20...maybe deeper into the month.  How much actually sticks is the big question. 

Historically one day 3 inch snows occur mostly between 23 and 33 degrees

Historical November snowfall 

How Did Last Winter Compare to Other Recent Winters?

One of the first snow blowers

The COMPLETE WINTER SCORECARD going back to winter 2004-05!    

If you would like another metric added to this list, send me a note:

scott.sabol@fox8.com

December through February temperatures relative to 20 year average versus DJF snowfall for each winter season since 1940.  I highlighted some notable years for reference.

Northern Ohio Tornado Outbreak Recap

Late October into November is considered a second severe weather season across the eastern US. Storm systems get stronger, deeper and more frequent as the jet stream strengthens. Large temperature variations over the central US, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley are increasing as cold fronts start to bring down colder air.

October tornado touchdowns by county and NWS coverage area

Notice how the tornado touchdowns shift further east in November.

Multiple tornado warnings were issued by NWS Cleveland late Thursday afternoon.  The map below shows the tornado warnings superimposed with tornado confirmations. As of this map creation the Lake county tornado was not confirmed. Ultimately a tornado was confirmed in Wickliffe yet no tornado warning was issued. 

There were 7 confirmed tornadoes Thursday, October 21 across northern Ohio.

Radar loop from Thursday October 21, 2021 - 

Rating:                 EF1

Estimated Peak Wind:    97 mph

Path Length /statute/:  0.1751 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   50.0 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

Start Date:             10/21/2021

Start Time:             04:49 PM EDT

Start Location:         1 E Wickliffe / Lake County / OH

Start Lat/Lon:          41.6079 / -81.4525

End Date:               10/21/2021

End Time:               04:50 PM EDT

End Location:           1 ENE Wickliffe / Lake County / OH

Rating:                 EF0

Estimated Peak Wind:    80 mph

Path Length /statute/:  0.781 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   25.0 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

Start Date:             10/21/2021

Start Time:             05:08 PM EDT

Start Location:         2 N Hudson / Summit County / OH

Start Lat/Lon:          41.2686 / -81.4409

End Date:               10/21/2021

End Time:               05:11 PM EDT

End Location:           2 NNE Hudson / Summit County / OH

Rating:                 EF1

Estimated Peak Wind:    110 mph

Path Length /statute/:  2.9615 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   50.0 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

Start Date:             10/21/2021

Start Time:             05:10 PM EDT

Start Location:         3 NW Hills And Dales / Stark County / OH

Start Lat/Lon:          40.8632 / -81.4877

End Date:               10/21/2021

End Time:               05:15 PM EDT

End Location:           2 WSW North Canton / Stark County / OH

Rating:                 EF1

Estimated Peak Wind:    104 mph

Path Length /statute/:  0.6582 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   50.0 yards

Fatalities:             0

Injuries:               0

Start Date:             10/21/2021

Start Time:             06:15 PM EDT

Start Location:         3 NNW Cortland / Trumbull County / OH

Start Lat/Lon:          41.3796 / -80.736

End Date:               10/21/2021

End Time:               06:18 PM EDT

End Location:           3 N Cortland / Trumbull County / OH

Rating:                 EF0

Estimated Peak Wind:    80 mph

Path Length /statute/:  0.0772 miles

Path Width /maximum/:   20.0 yards

Fatalities:             0     Injuries:               0

Start Date:             10/21/2021;  Start Time:             06:20 PM EDT

Start Location:         5 NNE Cortland / Trumbull County / OH

Start Lat/Lon:          41.3865 / -80.6642

End Date:       10/21/2021;  End Time:   06:21 PM EDT: End Location: 5 NNE Cortland / Trumbull County / OH

How Unusual is this Unseasonably Warm October?

The entire Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, portions of the upper midwest and Northeast have enjoyed warm temperatures which rank #1 all-time through October 13th!

The above normal warmth extends into much of Canada with below normal temperatures along the west coast

HUGE high pressure ridge responsible for the warmth.  Look at the lows tracking across the deep south.  Keep an eye on this feature later this fall and into the winter (hmmmmm)

High temperatures in northern Ohio have been above normal all month.  Only one other October has had every day through the 15th above normal--2017.

The pattern can't sustain itself like this forever.  Overall pattern is starting to show signs of heading back to "normal". This was my long range outlook hinting at a "cooler" late October issued on October 5th

As of this writing (October 14th) the overall pattern is showing cooler periods with some "bump ups" in temperature; nothing long lasting.

Watch the warmer colors (high pressure) become smaller to be replaces by troughs (blue colors) to finish out the month. Basically temperatures will be averaging out to near average for late October.

What does EVERY weather watch & warning look like?

Scroll down to the bottom of the graphic and then look left to right. Graphic starts January 1 on the left and ends October 4th 2021. Enjoy! 

The Perfect Weather Day: When Do They Occur Most?

My definition of a perfect weather day is a day with temperatures between 65 and 80 degrees with no rainfall. After analyzing ALL the days (more than 14,000) from 1980 to 2020 and plotting the instances for each day of the year, this is what I found:

Notice the typical increase in late spring, the drop in summer then the big increase in September and early October.  Once the pattern flips in mid October it rarely recovers (blue arrow).  Enjoy these days while you can :)

How Warm Was This Summer? Complete Summer Weather Recap - Part I

Credit:  Nadine Maruszczak, Getty Images

This past summer featured significant warmth across the northern states, New England and western US.  Temperatures were below normal across the deep south.

The next 3 maps below show temperatures vs normal for JUNE, JULY and AUGUST.

When we examine each climate division and rank the OVERALL summer temperatures for each division (out of  129 years) we get this picture below.  The lower the number (out of 129 years) the warmer the period (JJA).

Overall summer temperature trends across the US are increasing

Once we separate the divisional high temperatures from the low temperatures, we can see significant difference.  Divisional high temperature ranks are similar to the overall temperatures. 

Yet the overnight low temperature ranks are far higher in many areas.

The well above normal low temperatures correspond to the well above normal rainfall areas

Summer rainfall vs normal below .  Green and blue areas indicated above normal.  Warmer colors show .well below normal rainfall

The Ohio Valley and upper midwest breakdown for JUNE, JULY and AUGUST on PART II (NEXT POST)