Late May-Early June Outlook

So far our spring weather has been less than desirable. Many have said that this spring has been the worst spring in a long time with many believing that rainfall must be close to a record for spring.

Rainfall since April 15th has been well above normal (normal is 3.7"). Interestingly rainfall has been almost identical to the last 2 spring seasons.

So why does it seem that the weather recently has been much worse?

I used 3 different measures in determining how the spring has gone. 

* Number of days with rainfall

* Cloudy Days (at least 50%)

* Temps vs normal

I used the last 30 days (April 15 - May 15) as the time period.

Sure enough, we've had more rainy days and cloudy days for sure with very little breaks.  But contrary to popular belief, the temperatures have not been all that cooler than normal. 

Will the pattern start to dry out or will a rainy pattern redevelop in the long term?

The PNA is starting a dive below normal in the next 10 days. By itself, this indicates troughiness west and ridging (warmth) eastern half of the US.

The Euro has been picking up on this configuration for a few days. A brief warmup this weekend (May 18-19), a break followed by the ridge blowing up and expanding north to start Memorial day weekend!

Earlier in the week (May 13th), I tweeted the SOI (southern oscillation index) changes and the matching 500 mB composites for the end of the month.  Based on these, the pattern looks to do two things:  First the SE ridge flattens out and shifts south.  Secondly, the storm track re-positions itself back through the middle of the US.   The EURO is starting to pick up on this flattening by the 27th of May.

If all of this evolves like I think it will, rainfall will be above normal by month's end across the central US and portions of the Ohio Valley.  Temperatures for the Ohio Valley will be normal to slightly above normal with frequent rain systems with little breaks to start June. Will this above normal rainfall effect temperatures in early summer?   Very good chance

Lake Erie is quickly reaching near record levels

Interesting Iowa Corn Yield Data

Per Iowa Extension Agents: 

"At the state level historical USDA-NASS data indicates that if 50 percent of the corn is planted before May 15 the chances for high yield potential still exists (Figure 1). In only five of 40 years the 50 percent corn planting point has not occurred before May 15. In each of those five years, the statewide corn yield was below trend line."

14 day rainfall vs normal. Heaviest rain across Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, northern Illinois. Below normal rainfall in Iowa.

Long range projections show significant rainfall across the cornbelt over the next 10 days

EURO 10 day rainfall totals

GFS 10 day rainfall totals

Lake Erie Ice Images

Cool Lake Erie ice coverage images courtesy of the European Space Agency Sentinel-L2 and L3 satellites. Notice the surface inconsistencies of the ice and the BIG crack/gap highlighting the unstable nature of the ice field. First image is from the MODIS satellite. The remaining images (courtesy ESA - Sentinel L2 and L3 satellite) start over the eastern basin from Buffalo to Erie, PA where the ice thickness is greatest. Notice the mid-lake crack which is roughly 2 miles wide.

Our vantage point from the shoreline is short. Notice how highly variable the ice coverage is as you continue out onto the lake

MODIS Satellite from Friday 3/8/2019

Sentinel L3 image - Satellite 3/9/2019

Thickness will continue to drop along the shoreline to between 1-2 inches

 at most by the end of the week. STAY AWAY FROM THE ICE!

Jose Ramirez's Offensive Cool-Down in 2018

Jose Ramirez was in the midst of an historical season for the Cleveland Indians. His offensive numbers have cooled down recently as teams have taken a different approach in pitching to him.

Slugging percentage has dropped

The first 4 months of the 2018 season, Jose feasted on fastballs. The majority of the pitches he saw were fastballs even when the pitcher was ahead in the count.

By August, pitchers began throwing more breaking balls and off speed pitches especially when they were ahead in the count.

The breaking ball/off speed pitch trend continued with higher frequency in September

2018 Movie List

2018 MOVIE LIST - 55 TOTAL

STAR WARS EPISODE 8
GIRL ON THE TRAIN
LADY BIRD
SPIDERMAN
12 STRONG
SILENCE
VICTORIA AND ABDUL
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
BLADE RUNNER 2049
FINDING DORY

THE POST
THE KILLING OF A SACRED DEER
WIND RIVER
MAGIC MIKE XXL
THOR: RAGNaROK
MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS
A MONSTERS CALL
PHANTOM THREAD
DESPICABLE ME 3
DADDY'S HOME 2

CAMERAPERSON
MOLLY'S GAME
WONDER
THE FLORIDA PROJECT
LAST DAYS IN THE DESERT
I, TONYA
READY PLAYER ONE
THE DISASTER ARTIST
MAGNIFICENT SEVEN
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN

PROFESSOR MARSTON-WONDER WOMEN
BLACK PANTHER
BRAD'S STATUS
LIFE
ATOMIC BLONDE
DAWSON CITY: FROZEN TIME
GAME NIGHT
THE GIFT
WHITE BOY RICK
A STAR IS BORN

CREEPY
BLOCKERS
BLACKKKLANSMAN
MAJORIE PRIME
RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
A BEAUTIFUL BOY
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
CRAZY RICH ASIANS
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
FIRST MAN

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 6
OCEANS 8
FIRST REFORMED
ROMA
VICE

History of Tropical System near northern Ohio

Only 11 tropical systems (mainly depressions and extra-tropical storms) have passed within 100 miles of Cleveland. The only systems that were still Tropical Storms were Hugo in 1989 and Candy 1969.

If we expand our search a total of 36 tropical systems have passed within 200 miles of Cleveland. One Hurricane (1896), 7 Tropical Storms (more recent: Hugo 1989) 12 Tropical Depressions (recent: Nate 2017) and 16 Extra Tropical Systems (recent: Sandy 2012 & Nate 2017).

Cody Allen 2018 vs 2017

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Cody Allen, closer for the Cleveland Indians is the bookend of the worst bullpen in baseball this year. He's only blown one save through the All-Star break but his last outing in a non save situation--2/3 inning, 6 runs, 3 hits, 2 walks--had me wondering if this performance is an indication of something more substantial brewing over time.  Some basic pitching numbers along with Statcast data can shed light on this.

*  Opponents are batting more than 200 points HIGHER against Allen with runners in scoring position than last year.

RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION

                GAMES   PLATE APPEARANCES   OPP AVG.       2B   HR   RBI

2017:            69                    50                              0.226             1      2     16
2018:            32                    44                              0.432             3      1     14

*  Allen's has already walked 15 batters in 32 games. Last year his total was 21 with double the number of games pitched.

            RESULTS WITH COUNTS 3-0, 3-1, 3-2

                 GAMES         HITS/AB           BB   SO   RBI   HR   R

2017:             69            8-32  (0.250)     21    12     6       4      6
2018:             32            4-18  (0.222)     15     4      2       1      2   (THRU JULY 11)

*  Allen's velocity has steadily dropped from its peak in 2013 to its present level similar to last season

*  Batters are swinging at more of his pitches in the strike zone vs any other year since 2012.  Batters are more aggressive vs Allen.

* Yet opponents are also swinging and missing significantly more this season

* Batters are not swinging and missing at pitches up in the zone as much as last year

However he is still throwing pitches in roughly the same locations regardless of the batter

The result has been more fly balls this season than in any other season

Expected slugging percentage (formulated using exit velocity and launch angle from statcast) shows an increase from last year.

The increase in flyballs and expected slugging percentage is probably due to pitch location. His primary pitches (fourseam fastball and curveball) are higher in the zone this year vs 2017.

He has made adjustments to right handed batters this year and its showed. The real damage has been done on the other side of the plate where lefties are enjoying a large increase in OPS.  4 homeruns so far thru July 11th versus only 1 last year. 15 hits in roughly half the number of at bats.

Why is this happening?  He's leaving the ball over the plate more this year to lefties.
               
                              AB    H     HR   RBI   AVG      OPS
2017  LEFTIES    110   23      1        7     0.209     0.545

                           
                              AB    H     HR   RBI   AVG      OPS
2018  LEFTIES     59    15      4      10     0.254     0.871 (THRU JULY 11)

The frequency of balls GROOVED (right over the plate) is higher with both his fourseam fastball and curveball. The increase is more pronounced with the fourseam. 

This has resulted in more flyballs.  Batters are pulling the ball more.  The number of weak hits is lower; the number of solid hits is the highest in three years!

The bottom line is Cody Allen is less effective when he doesn't locate his two pitches. This is essential now versus other years due to his decline in velocity. He needs to make adjustments DOWN in the zone especially to left handed hitter or the second half of the season will be more of the same

Heat Index Levels: Last 10 Years (Cleveland, Ohio) and Others

This weekend will feature our first days with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s this year. Some have surmised that our weather has been more humid than in recent years.  Here are plots showing the number of hours the heat index reached at least 80 degrees. BLUE denotes current year. RED is the average for each period.

Drought year of 1988:  36 days above 90 degrees