Friday, August 31, 2012

Local Heavy Rain from Issac This Weekend

Rains from Isaac continue to stall over the southern portions on NE Ohio. A few clusters of heavy rainfall have settled in Lorain, Medina and Cuyahoga counties. Here is the radar loop from 11:30PM Saturday night which gives you a good idea of what the radar will look like Sunday: Localizes heavy rain!

CLICK HERE for the newest radar loop

Aside from lake effect snow, predicting how tropical systems will effect northeastern Ohio days in advance is one of the toughest tasks as a meteorologist here in Ohio. Its only happened 14 times since 1851 so there aren't many examples to learn from. Here are the 14 tropical system tracks as they crossed over Ohio. Its a jumbled mess of lines but you get the idea. Notice Katrina, Opal, Hugo and Fran from recent memory.

The other tropical systems that are comparable in their track to Isaac are:  Candy 1968, Katrina 2005 and
Opal in 1995; Dennis is a good one too.
This weekend, several elements will be impacting the movement of Isaac's remains. The first is the dry air over Ohio and surrounding areas. The water vapor satellite photo shows this very well. White colors are moisture, dark colors are dry air.
The other element is the cold front moving south. This will act at as the steering mechanism which continue to focus the rain further east into Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
As of late Saturday, rainfall from Isaac will be centered in Illinois and Indiana this weekend through Monday

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