Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Do March Cold Stretches Lead to Milder Aprils?

Everyone is asking if this abnormally cold pattern will lead to a colder or warmer April?

Let's look at the Aprils of the past statistically after stretches of cold in mid to late March similar to this one.  The coldest stretches between March 15th and 24th were in these years. (So far, this stretch in 2013 (assuming that the extended forecast holds) is ranked 8th coldest.)

How were the temperatures in the following Aprils in these years? Here are the composites for each year. 4 of the 8 occurred before 1910.

APRIL 1906
APRIL 1960
APRIL 1872
APRIL 1885
APRIL 1896
APRIL 1956
APRIL 2006
APRIL 1967
The only years in this list that had COLDER than normal temperatures in NORTHERN OHIO were 1956 and 1885.  So statistically, the chances for an April with ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES after a stretch of cold like what we are experiencing in this part of March are fairly good. Let's hope the actual meteorological pattern matches up.

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