Friday, June 07, 2013

Friday Morning Update: 8 day forecast, Cool June & T.S. Andrea

Its finally Friday and my voice is going due to allergies. Its frustrating having a weakened voice due to congestion when the rest of you feels fine. I'll give it a few days to clear up as I always do in the spring when this happens. Sigh.....

In the mean time, I figure a post with a myriad of weather elements would take my mind off of my voice. Luckily, we have a bunch of topics to cover this morning.  First, here is the 8 day forecast for northern Ohio. Notice the absence of 80 degree warmth. This time of year, I am always apprehensive about running an 8 day forecast with a string of 70s. The extended models have been flipping back and forth on the strength of the mid west warmth for next week. Given their inconsistencies and the strength of June sunshine, an 80 degree high in this environment is ALWAYS possible. Rather than bounce back and forth, I like the numbers to stay consistent until the pattern becomes more definitive.

This "cool" start to June has happened in a long time right? Not really. Here is the list of years that had "cooler" starts to June. This year isn't close to the top of the list. We've had 4 years with cooler starts to June since 2000!

Rainfall across northern Ohio has been feast or famine. Shoreline communities from just east of Cleveland to Ashtabula is running well above normal (3-5" in spots) over the last month. Whereas most other locations are running near normal to almost an inch below normal even with the rainfall yesterday (Friday June 6th).

Now the tropical storm....Andrea continue to fly up the eastern seaboard at almost 30 mph producing heavy rainfall from the Carolinas to New York and Boston over the next 48 hours.

One quick Andrea forecast element I just noticed was the GFS long range forecast for Andrea. It takes its  remains over Greenland. While this could be an outlier, its fun to think that tropical remains could finish over a typically arctic location. Its happened with other tropical storms like Hurricane Faith back in 1966....its just wild to see in a model projection.  I like extremes!

Have a good weekend!

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