Thursday, November 07, 2013

Tale of Two Different Solutions For Next Week's Forecast

Early in the week, I spoke of the probability of a pattern shift to colder one next week. One model (GFS for you technical weather geeks) was showing 50s and 60s while the other model (EURO) was showing a huge storm over the eastern US with lake effect snow. This is all in the top panel of the graphic below.

Fast forward to today (the bottom panel in the graphic below), the EURO model has been consistent in its depiction of the trough/low in the east (lower right) while the GFS just yesterday and again today is now showing the same thing (lower left).

The "C" indicates COLDER and troughiness. The "W" indicates WARMER and ridging. The RED circle indicates Ohio.

I write all of this to illustrate that weather is much more than looking at computer model outputs.  Its understanding what computer projection one is more accurate in certain situations.

Let's see in the days ahead which one nails next week's forecast.

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