After the past week we had with low, hanging cloud cover with intermittent rain, its easy to answer a resounding YES! But the pattern has done an about-face highlighted by a fall "Omega Block" over the central US. When lows stall and get cutoff, the result is the week that we had last week. When the Omega Block sits overhead, we bask in long periods of sunshine and super-dry air as we have now
So far, this year ranks 4th all-time.
1. 53.83 inches - 1990
2. 53.51 inches - 1878
3. 50.38 inches - 1950
4. 49.97 inches - 2011
5. 48.53 inches - 1992
Rainfall since July 4th even in the 95 degree heat was well above normal
For those of you who like graphs, the rainfall numbers each month are well above the norms
So back to the original question. Will we break the record this month? The long range projections squeeze out the Omega Block slowly. First, rainfall Monday of next week. Still dry here in Northern Ohio
Thursday the 13th, the southern moisture and the cold front out west eliminates the Blocking Pattern almost entirely
Blocking patterns don't last long late October/early November. Rain will return late next week but not enough to break the record. We'll have to wait for another system by month's end or early November. By then, we won't care about rain as much as the start of the lake effect snow countdown. I can't wait!