What's With The Cool Lake Erie Water?

Check out this chart. It shows the water temperatures off Cleveland for each year since 1995 from May 1 to June 15. I dimmed out every year except last year (2024) and this year for easier reference.

Note that last year's water temperature in May was close to the warmest on record. This year, the temperatures were below normal. Lake Erie water temperature responds to the air temperature.  Notice how last year the temperatures around the Great Lakes were well above normal in May.  This year, below normal.

May 2024 Temperatures VS Normal

May 2025 Temperatures VS Normal

Given the pattern for the remainder of June through mid July, the Lake Erie water temperature will rebound nicely!

Summer Heat Emerging

Interesting temperature anomaly solution by the European AI model for the week of June 19 through the 25th back on June 9th. My idea of a slow start to summer (June 1 starts the clock) is still looking good.

June 9 afternoon solution

Here is the same model late June 10th.  Extreme heat projected in the middle of the US.

GFS wasn't showing any heat on June 9 model output...

GFS did a complete 180.  Now its showing the heat the EURO was showing.

High temperatures Sunday June 23 via Euro AI:

GFS same day:

What's interesting is that the heat is developing over extremely wet ground especially across southern Kansas, Missouri and Kentucky.  Northern Illinois, Iowa and Indiana rainfall is running well below normal since mid May.

How much will these dry conditions feed the heat if this continues into July/August?

Notice the Sonoran High (southwestern US) and the SE ridge beginning to merge by the end of the month. This should be enough to keep temperatures above normal across the Ohio Valley/Central US the final week of June, through the 4th of July and beyond.