Early November "milder" periods like the one we are entering in today are not that unusual. Over the last 5 Novembers, only in 2008 have we received more than 2 inches of snow during the month so "milder" or "not so cold" November periods happen and happen quite frequently.
That said, it is these stretches of 50 and 60 degree days with the lack of strong storms across Ohio that have me on guard for what is to come. Let me illustrate why by looking at the long range computer projections for next week.
This first map is for this upcoming Saturday. Notice the "L" or LOW out west and the "bubble" or ridge over Ohio. For us, this means temps above normal with little rain or snow. This also signifies a deepening "trough" out west which allows these "LOWS" to grow and strengthen. All signs of the changing season from late fall to early winter. The trough out west are much DEEPER and STRONGER than what they were in September.
Now look at last year at this time. The "L" was right over Ohio producing our first round of early November snow.
The bottom line is that this "dry and somewhat milder" pattern scares me because the stronger the troughs out west, the stronger the colder air behind them. The trough will eventually drift east being our first lake effect snow of the season by Thanksgiving!