Tuesday, December 20, 2011

January 2012 Outlook - Readers Digest Version

After re-reading the January Outlook I posted yesterday, I realized that the post was somewhat convoluted. 

Ok, it was alot convoluted!

As I ran through how I came up with the resultant composite for January, it hit me that the post read more like a Stanley Kubrick script than a straight-forward outline.  So here we go one more time.

Have we had any Novembers and Decembers similar to this year when we look at the indices that describe the state of the ARCTIC, NORTH ATLANTIC, ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC?  Yes.

PNA (Pacific Index) = 1970, 1973, 1994

AO (Arctic Index) = 1994
Dropping the AO a bit, we get these years =
 1975, 1979, 1982, 1990, 1992, 1994, 2004, 2006

NAO (North Atlantic Index) = 1982, 1986, 1992, 1993

PDO (Pacific Ocean Temps) - September-December averages similar to this year = 1999, 1994, 1961, 1955, 1950

AMO (Tropical Atlantic) - October-November drops similar to this year =
                1987, 1963

The year that matches up the best (NOV and DEC) = 1994

Let's assume (BIG ASSUMPTION) that January's indices will drop to levels that are more conducive for "typical winter weather"--not huge drops but just enough.  That is the ARCTIC DROPS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE, THE PACIFIC ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER EAST AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALLOWS FOR MORE NORTHERLY STORMS, WE GET THESE JANUARY YEARS FOR OUR COMPOSITE:

1987 (El NINO), 1963 (WEAK LA NINA)

Since the PDO (pacific ocean temperatures) are at the lowest since December of 1961, the years 1955 and 1950 have to be factored more heavily.

That gives us:  1987, 1963, 1955, 1950

Here are the composites for these years weighting 1987 and 1963 highest because they match this year's daily indices the best.

Remember that there are no PERFECT MATCHES.

First NOVEMBER'S match then JANUARY of 2012. 

BTW, My January snowfall outlook: 14 inches!

There. That works much better!


Sue said...

I actually understood your first post better. This is my first time to this site & I have found it very interesting. I was not in Ohio during the years that you say match up best for this year so it will be interesting to see what happens.


judykayspadiva said...

Scott, I`m confused. I live in
Navarre,Oh. just south of Massillon
or South of Canton. I can`t understand, are we going to get a
lot of snow, frigid cold just sayin. Judy Fox...thanks

Scott Sabol, Meteorologist said...

Judy, the pattern would suggest that we will see the temps trend cooler but not arctic cold like last year. Expect more normal snowfall in Navarre (5-10")

Jacob said...

I've been wondering but is Mentor in the Snowbelt? i know places like Chardon and lots of places in Geauga County are so are we and what do you think for snowfall for Mentor.