Tuesday, October 23, 2012

HUGE Warmup...Late October Atlantic Hurricane...Potential Storm Next Week

Once again, I don't want to overshadow this nice warmup we are enjoying but the potential for major storm development early next week is too meteorologically interesting to ignore. Temperature will climb nicely today through Thursday. If we are lucky, a few backyards could touch 80 by Thursday!

Now to next week.
Three different elements are factored into the pattern next week.

1. Unseasonably warm air
2. Strong Cold Front
3. Late Season Tropical Storm (Hurricane) near the east coast

The interesting element is the late season Tropical Storm named Sandy in the Caribbean. Late season tropical systems DO occur from time to time. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 was a significant hurricane which made landfall in mid October along the coast of North Carolina and moved north into central Pennsylvania.

We are approaching Halloween so the tropical storm/Hurricane chances greatly diminish. Even less are the chances of a tropical system making landfall along the east coast of the US.

Using NOAA's Historical Hurricane Plotter, I created a map of the tropical systems that developed from October 22nd through early November in the Caribbean that made landfall along the east coast.  I found ONLY THREE SUCH STORMS. All of these storms occurred 1800s. 

So Sandy would be a rarity given its super-late season development and its potential impact area.

Here is the plot of the many computer projections using Google Earth. The red circles are showing selected cities like Cleveland, New York, Boston, Cape Hatteras and Hilton Head.

The European solution is still very aggressive in keeping Sandy along the east coast Sunday through Tuesday merging it with the cold front coming from the west. Lots of energy coming out of the west which--according to this projection--would pull it WEST. Here is Sunday and Monday back to back.

Now check out Tuesday.....

The model takes Sandy, merges it with the front and pulls it as far as western New York and blows it up into this monster! This would mean 50+ winds for Northeastern Ohio with rain (maybe wet snow).

While I am skeptical of this result, the model's consistancy can't be ignored.  We still have a week to go. Let's see what happens...

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