Friday, October 26, 2012

Hurricane Sandy Update #2 of 3 - Landfall Projections, New England Impacs

The official National Hurricane Center storm track takes Sandy briefly away from land and then a drastic turn back to the west making landfall between Delaware and southern New Jersey.

Sandy is moving into VERY WARM WATER off shore. This will help feed the storm sustaining it at hurricane strength until it makes landfall.

The best computer model over the last week in handling the storm has been the European Model. Its resolution is far superior than the GFS (American Model) among other things. Here is the European snapshot. It brings Sandy ashore in early afternoon

A few other projections take it further north and and at different times.

The surf heights near Delaware Bay will rise to 15+ feet!

Reegardless, the impact will be felt from Chesapeake Bay, north into New Jersey where evaculations might be needed due to coastal flooding and 60-70+ mph winds. If a shift to the north occurs, the sheer size of this storm and its accompanying wind field has a real chance of affecting New York City. Something to watch this weekend.

Have there been any storms like this? Using the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee analog tool (which weights factors like TIME OF YEAR, INTENSITY, MOTION, DIRECTION and LOCATION) there are
10 "best fits". Notice that NOT ONE OF THESE STORMS TURNED WEST like Sandy is projected to do.

This storm will be an HISTORIC STORM due to it location of landfall (Mid Atlantic and New England) and the number of people it will effect. Some have compared this storm to the Hurricane of 1938. Look at this scary comparison to Sandy and the Hurricane of 1938!

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