In my opinion, warm fronts are one the most tricky parts of a storm system to predict. The computer models in many instances have a difficult time nailing down the timing and the position of the rain associated with it. A few days ago when the different models were showing warm frontal development at multiple levels, I paused.
I've been burned before. Will this warm front lift north taking the moisture with it or will it hesitate and stall temporarily causing some rain along the turnpike corridor? Complicating matters are that this is going down over a weekend in mid October when most people will be enjoying fall activities as the leaves are reaching peak. The other factors show a trailing cold front which will push winds to near criteria levels Sunday with temperatures in the 70s with some scattered storms....during the Browns game! One can argue that an act of God is the only thing that can help the Browns but I digress.
The surface map today (Friday October 12th) show the beginnings of the weekend system in the south.
Dew points (available moisture) climbs Saturday and Sunday.