Thursday, April 18, 2013

Today/Tonight's Severe Weather Threat


The radar looks fairly uniform this morning. Well defined line of rain and storms in the middle of the country. .
A WATCH might have to be issued for Indiana later this morning. No showers/storms on radar over northern Ohio as of 9AM.

For Ohio, we will see three elements evolve today before the storms arrive: First the strong winds. The pressure gradient is strong along the front as is the temperature gradient. Temps early this morning were in the upper 70s in St. Louis; 45 in Kansas City. The pressure gradient and the low level winds will translate down to the surface reaching 40-45 late today as we reach prime heating. Dew points are also climbing.

The second element is the temperatures. In April, we need a strong southerly wind to reach 80. That should not be a problem later. the only inhibiting factor will be some cloud cover. History tells us that the winds should mix out the cloud deck. Expect a fair amount of sunshine. Morning temperatures ahead of the front already in the 70s!

The third component (the toughest to nail down) is the energy ahead of the main front. Will this energy kick up some spotty storms later today/evening? Once again, history dictates that the chances are pretty good. The HRRR model shows the random, pre-frontal storms very well. The Storm Prediction Center has western Ohio in a slight risk later today for severe storms

Then we await the arrival of the winds ahead of the front. Storms will pass through the area at the right time of day (late evening/overnight) so as to diminish the severe weather threat. A few storms will reach severe limits tonight but it should not be widespread.

Expect rain early Friday, temps will remain in the 60s early. The models continue to push this front through FAST. So look for the rain to move into Pennsylvania by noon Friday. Temperatures will drop quickly into the lower 50s by afternoon. Some sunny breaks behind the front.

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