Wednesday, December 04, 2013

Winter Storm FRIDAY...Arctic Air Coming In Two Waves

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I'm still not convinced that this first push of colder air this weekend will be as strong as advertised. The mean trough stays west of Ohio on Friday and into the weekend. The 500mB flow is out of the southwest so the advection of cold air is more south than east. The core of the cold air doesn't slide east until early next week as the trough migrates into the Great Lakes.

I'm not saying that the temperatures won't fall, I'm just a bit hesitant on bring in a 28 degree high for Saturday this far out (I'm writing this Wednesday morning). I've been consistent with my reasoning since Monday. Unless the overall flow changes in the models Thursday or Friday, I'd rather keep the temps in the lower 30s and adjust down if need be. A 5 degree variation is probably more semantic than anything else. Rarely does someone feel a difference between 28 and 33. But this pattern, as I see it, will no doubt occur again later this winter if the mean trough stays in the center of the US. Better learn the specifics now than be blindsided later...Now to the specifics of the Friday forecast:

Temps will start to fall Thursday but as I said earlier, the winds will parallel the front. So the front stalls and a low develops along it over the panhandle of Texas. It moves along the sharp temperature gradient along the Ohio River.

So the dividing line between rain and snow will bisect Ohio. Expect precipitation to move in fast tomorrow (Thursday) night and early Friday.
The movement of a few miles will greatly affect how much snow we get and who see it Friday. The European model is fairly aggressive with snowfall amounts for all of Ohio. The heaviest snow seems to stay south. Stay tuned for more adjustments to the snow amounts and locations.

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