|CURRENT RADAR IMAGE. LOOP HERE|
Small scale conditions like a shift a few degrees in temperature can make the difference between snow and sleet reducing the snowfall amounts. In hindsight, initial amounts (24 hours out) were too high. Inside that time frame, we adjusted them accordingly. This is why we can't handle probability in weather forecasts. We crave a concrete forecast. All too often, it doesn't work out.
Now back to the snow for tonight and tomorrow (Saturday)...
This panhandle low is much different for two reasons: COLD AIR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED and THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER than with the last two. The moisture originates from the tropical Pacific. The conveyor belt of moisture continues to feed the Texas panhandle low.
The moisture converges and slides right over the Midwest over the next 24 hours.
The high resolution WRF model shows the snow rapidly intensifying over the next 24 hours. The forecast bring the snow into northern Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and western Pennsylvania tonight into Saturday. Video of this is below:
Give all of the parameters, the snow will be WIDESPREAD and heavier. It will be much harder to shovel. We are not anticipating much wind with this snow
The probability for more than 4" is greater than 80% as per the National Weather Service.