Monday, January 07, 2013

January Thaw Begins...When Will Winter Return?


So far,  a nice "January Thaw" pattern shaping up for this week. The typicaly signature is a ridge in the east with a trough in the west which drives above normal temperatures here in Ohio and surrounding areas with below normal temperatures out west.




First, what will this mean for us:

1. The snow cover will melt completely by the end of the week

2. The ground will become saturates so the rain system on Thursday/Friday could cause some high water in low lying areas


The high is deflecting many of the weather systems back into Canada. When a system makes it through the ridge, it produces rain not snow



Second question: When will the winter pattern flip back to winter?

Looking at the long range blend of several computer projections, there are strong indications that the trough out west will migrate back east by the end of the week.



Colder temperatures seem a good bet by the 20th.

SO GET READY FOR MORE SNOW AND COLD BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS!






Friday, January 04, 2013

Satellite Data Confirms Record Setting Warmth in 2012




There are several data sets that we use to determine US and global temperatures. Some data sets are derived from measurements taken at the surface. Others are taken from satellites which sample the atmosphere from the surface to about 8 kilometers above the surface. These measurements began in the late 1970s.

Anyway you slice it, this year was a very warm year across northern Ohio, the US and globally. December started our very warm but flipped to below normal highs by Christmas. This trend has continued into early January.



The super-warm March really tipped the scales across the US.  Satellite data analysis is complete for 2012. The University of Alabama-Huntsville report is as follows. I broke up each sentence to make it easier to digest.


"Globally, 2012 was the ninth warmest year among the past 34, with an annual global average temperature that was about 0.29 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 30-year baseline average, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville.”

“…2012 was about three one-hundredths of a degree C warmer than 2011, but was 0.23 C cooler than 2010.”

“…Eleven of the 12 warmest years in the satellite temperature record have been been since 2001. From 2001 to the present only 2008 was cooler than the long-term norm for the globe."

"While 2012 was only the ninth warmest year globally, it was the warmest year on record for both the contiguous 48 U.S. states and for the continental U.S., including Alaska.”

“…For the U.S., 2012 started with one of the three warmest Januaries in the 34-year record, saw a record-setting March heat wave, and stayed warm enough for the rest of the year to set a record.

“….Compared to seasonal norms, March 2012 was the warmest month on record in the 48 contiguous U.S. states…The annual average temperature over the conterminous 48 states in 2012 was about 0.99 degrees F warmer than seasonal norms."

“…From 2001 to the present only 2008 was cooler than the long-term norm for the globe. Despite that string of warmer-than-normal years, there has been no measurable warming trend since about 1998. The long-term warming trend reported in the satellite data is calculated using data beginning on Nov. 16, 1978”

Again, these conclusions are derived from satellite data from University Alabama-Huntsville. Here is the top ten WARMEST YEARS GLOBALLY since 1979?  Graph of each year globally follows. Notice the warmer temps since the late 1990s versus the colder temps in the 1980s.


1979 through 2012
Warmest to coolest

  1. 1998  0.419
  2. 2010  0.394
  3. 2005  0.260
  4. 2002  0.218
  5. 2009  0.218
  6. 2007  0.202
  7. 2003  0.187
  8. 2006  0.186
  9. 2012  0.161
10. 2011  0.130


Will this trend continue in 2013 for northern Ohio and surrounding areas? I'll have thoughts on this later this month

Thursday, January 03, 2013

Frigid Morning Lows - Coldest Temps Last 10 Winters


This morning's lows are the coldest since last January 20th.  That morning we dropped to 6 above.  That was the only time last winter we dropped into the single digits. Our heavy snow cover since the 26th of December and abundant clear skies are great conditions for frigid morning temperatures. Here is a list of the morning lows on the 3rd of January 2013.

What are the coldest temperatures in each of the last 10 winters? Here is the list courtesy of Andre Bernier. Notice the 1998 El Nino winter. Coldest temperature was 12. Back in early 2009, we dropped to -13.


Where did last year's mild winter rank with snowfall? Coming up tomorrow, I'll post the snowfall history ranked from most to least since 1909. 

Tuesday, January 01, 2013

My 2012 Watched Movie List


As many of you know, I started a list of movies I needed to watch some years ago. It started out as roughly one hundred movies assembled from top ten lists of national and international movie reviewers, website lists, the AFI list and a host of others. The list grew over time as new movies came out. If I liked the director, I made a list of that director's films. You can see how a list like this can grow exponentially. For every 3 or 4 movies you cross off of the list, seven more are added. Needless to say, the list continues to grow though not at the rate of a couple of years ago. Now that the New Year is here, I wait for about a dozen or so movies to make it to DVD in January and February.


At the end of each year, I compile my watched movie list and narrow it down to my favorite TEN.

My 2009 List  (100 total)
My 2010 List  (120 total)
My 2011 List  (150 total - list on Facebook)

Here is the complete 2012 list in no particular order (110 total) with my TOP 15 in RED/BOLD:


THESE AMAZING SHADOWS
THE LAST TRAIN HOME
CAVE OF FORGOTTEN DREAMS
THE CHANGE UP
THE DAY THE EARTH STOOD STILL
THE GIRL WHO PLAYED WITH FIRE
TINKER TAYLOR SOLDIER SPY
50/50
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
THE ARTIST

UP THE YANGTZE
GIRL WHO SHOOK THE HORNETS NEST
BONNIE & CLYDE
THE DECENDENTS
MELANCHOLIA
THE THIRD MAN
COOL HAND LUKE
CRIMES & MISDEMEANORS
THE SKIN I LIVE IN
ANOTHER EARTH

HUGO
CITY OF LIFE AND DEATH
A DANGEROUS METHOD
ARTHUR CHRISTMAS
TAKE SHELTER
BILL CUNNINGHAM NY
THE IRON LADY
A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
TOWER HEIST
THE INTERRUPTERS

INLAND EMPIRE
GOON
MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE
THE WHISTLEBLOWER
TERRI
HELL AND BACK AGAIN
ADVENTURES OF TIN TIN
J. EDGAR
LOST HIGHWAY
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4

3 MONKEYS
CARNAGE
ATTACK THE BLOCK
THE BEAVER
THE MAN NOBODY KNEW
THE AVENGERS
MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
SHERLOCK HOLMES 2
GARBO THE SPY
HANNA

CERTIFIED COPY
CONTRABAND
CHRONICLE
IN COLD BLOOD
A BETTER TOMORROW
THE ARBOR
URBANIZED
MAN ON A LEDGE
CASABLANCA
INTO THE ABYSS

WARRIOR
MY PERISTROIKA
NOSTALGIA FOR THE LIGHT
THE DICTATOR
LOVE CRIME
JEFF WHO LIVES AT HOME
ELITE SQUAD 2
NEVER LET ME GO
METROPOLIS
PARIAH

THE PIRATE BAND OF MISFITS
NOWHERE IN AFRICA
2012
EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE
A SEPARATION
PROMETHEUS
MIB 3
THE HUNGER GAMES
THE 3 STOOGES
RETREAT

THE CABIN IN THE WOODS
DOGTOOTH
WANDERLUST
MOONRISE KINGDOM
CODE UNKNOWN
COSMOPOLIS
BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL
VERTIGO
THE CAMPAIGN
SPIDERMAN

THE ENGLISH PATIENT
MAGIC MIKE
ON THE WATERFRONT
DARK KNIGHT RISES
FIRST POSITION
PARANORMAN
WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU'RE EXPECTING
TED
EXPENDABLES 2
BERNIE

LOOPER
JIRO DREAMS OF SUSHI
LINCOLN
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
LAWLESS
BAD SANTA
SAFETY NOT GUARANTEED
ONCE UPON A TIME IN ANATOLIA
ARGO
BOURNE LEGACY