Monday, February 03, 2014

Heavy Snow for Ohio Valley/Northern Ohio

Last week I wrote about why I believe its a risk to post snowfall forecasts online 5 to 7 days out because of the inherent changes in snowfall forecasts and the nature of computer models. Now that we are within 2 days of the event, some educated projections based on the higher resolution, shorter term computer projections mixed with some past experiences are more realistic.

The panhandle of Texas is very quiet as of Monday morning...

Seasonal snow last 40 years through February 2nd. This year is now 10th...probably 7th by week's end.

CLICK HERE FOR THE TEXAS RADAR  for the development of the rain and snow later today and tonight.

The 32 degree line will lift north tomorrow night. The position will be critical for a brief transition to a SLEETIER SNOW south compared to the heavier wetter snow north. A difference of 10-15 miles north or south of the path of the low will make a HUGE difference. I'll update this later today.

Based on the track of the low, the depth of the "milder air" ahead of the low along with the depth of the moisture and the upper level conditions, our updated snowfall forecast is as follows. The high resolution shorter term NAM model has a good handle on the snow as of noon Monday. ...updates later today on FOX8 with Andre and Melissa.

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