The lake ice begins to crack and thin as the overall temperatures begin to climb in late March and early April. The sun angle is also higher so the sun is much stronger than what it was a month ago.
Look at the record setting ice cover statistics from the winter of 1977-78. From March 15th to April 9th, the ice went from 95% to 34%. A loss of 61% in 3 1/2 weeks!
Expect this trend this year heading into early April. Remember, all of this melting and thinning continues to occur even when we have temporary cold spells.
So don't be fooled. Stay away from the ice!