A Cold/Snowy Winter Coming? Here's A Sneak Peak

Before I go any further, let me make the same declaration I've made in the past shortly before and after we debut any seasonal outlook:  Do not project a seasonal outlook over a specific day in that season! The variables that are used in creating a seasonal outlook are entirely different than what is used to develop a daily forecast. Its a classic "apples to oranges" comparison. Please, head over to my past blog post and read this before you proceed. It will make me feel better :)

Difference Between Day-to-day forecasts and Seasonal Outlooks
http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2014/04/summer-outlooks-are-different-than-day.html

This winter outlook sneak peak only takes into account a few variables.  (The rest are a part of our secret recipe written on a spiral notebook buried in the FOX8 front yard)  These "few variables" reside in and over the Pacific Ocean.  Take a look at the sea surface temperatures on October 8th.  I circled the regions we've kept an eye on since mid summer.

I will spare you the reasons why these locations are critical...at least for now.  Note that the warmer water in the Gulf of Alaska, the warmer water off the west coast, the cooler pocket of water east of Japan and the weak central based El Nino (Modoki) are all taken into account. When we match up these areas of concern with other years that are similar, we get this analog for the winter months of December through February.

Again, this is an outlook over a 90 day period not a specific day-to-day forecast.

This points to a colder than normal East Coast, Great Lakes and Deep South. The temperature legend is below.

Last year, the core of the cold was centered in the middle of the US. This winter, the core of the cold looks to shift more east and south.