No one is complaining about the above normal temperatures after the two past harsh winters. Above normal temperatures across the eastern 1/2 of the US. This warmth is not unexpected given the strong El Nino reaching peak strength though I am somewhat surprised that the warmth has been this consistent.
It can't last forever. So when will it flip or at least trend colder with higher chances of snow!
Remember our preliminary December outlook issued back in early September showed the core of the high pressure/warmth across the northern states into Canada with the core of the low pressure centers across the south (panhandle low type systems).
Some computer model projections have been bullish in tracking these southern lows further east and the warm ridge further north into Canada by the beginning of Christmas week.
The big questions for the end of the month and Christmas week: 1) How fast will the ridge lift north and 2) how strong will the low in the southwest/panhandle region push east?
We do know this: Any easterly migration of the southwest low along the southern jet stream will increase our chances of a wet panhandle-type snow by month's end.
The chances we will receive wet snow from a panhandle low will climb further after the first of the year.