Thursday, April 28, 2016

The BIG Winter Recap - Part II - Northern Ohio (Summer Thoughts)

The last "cold" morning in Ashtabula this winter
The strongest El Nino since 1997-98 and a stable arctic tempered the cold of the last two winters. Temperatures across northern Ohio were well above normal with below normal snowfall similar to the winters of 2011-12, 2001-02, 1997-98 and 1982-83. Two of those three were strong El Nino winters.  Our outlook last fall was for above normal temperatures and slightly below normal snowfall.




Above normal temperatures were more extensive across the US. According to the NCDC, global ocean temperatures were at record levels.  (See PART I of my winter recap for other drivers)



Given the panhandle storm track forecast back in September/October, we were very confident that we would get hit with at least ONE big general snowfall which would boost snow totals into the 50-55 inch range. Overall, the heavy snowfalls stayed south and east of northern Ohio which kept our totals even lower. Those big snows came VERY close to northern Ohio!

BIG SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...VERY CLOSE TO CLEVELAND & AKRON

How does this winter compare to the last two cold winters? How does this compare to the similar winter of 2011-12?  Here are the final tallies.  The same metrics used in last winter's winter recap were used this year to keep everything consistent.












Everyone thought winter was over until our early April snowfall. The April snowfall was almost 24% of the entire winter total; second highest ever!




 Lake Erie Ice Cover reached a peak of 75% for a few days in mid February.


 That's a bit misleading as the peak ice cover went from 3% to 79% in 3 days! In 11 days, it dropped to ZERO in a week and a half.  GRAPH BELOW

Ice cover was thicker and more widespread for much longer last winter.  For comparison, last year it took 28 days to reach 94% and it stayed above 90% for 47 days. Whereas in the winter of 2011-12 (similar to this winter--see above), ice cover reached 13%, only 6 days above 10%.  


Ice cover during the last big El Nino back in 1997-98 was even LOWER than this year. A whopping 8.4% maximum!






Will the leftover winter El Nino play a role in our summer temperatures and precipitation?  Will El Nino continue to weaken?  If so, how will this effect the summer and upcoming autumn? Will severe weather occur more frequently?  Summer Outlook coming up in a few days!  Check out fox8.com 






Wednesday, April 20, 2016

The BIG Winter 2015-16 Recap - Part 1



The winter is finally in the books. I delayed the publishing of the recap because of the snow earlier this month. Since I have so many images and analysis to show, this year's recap will be in two parts. So here we go...

So what did our Winter Outlook illustrate back in October?

Based on the developing El Nino (warmth more basin wide vs 1998 which ended being one of the strongest El Ninos in recent memory), the position of the warm and cool pools in the northern Pacific and Atlantic, our forecast was for a strong, southern jet stream (storm track) for the December-February time period.  Temperatures would be below average in the deep south with above normal temperatures centered in the midwest, upper Great Plains with slightly above normal temperatures for Ohio and the Ohio Valley.




During the early fall, 1997-98 became a stronger analog as the El Nino strengthened  Many used the El Nino split jet stream history formula (including myself) as a guide to this upcoming winter. Not all El Ninos are alike but we felt that this assumption was solid given past history.

Here are the December 1997 through January 1998 jet stream wind speeds anomalies (compared to average) on the left with the associated precipitation rates on the right side.  I labeled the parent lows and highs for guidance.  I circled the areas of heaviest precipitation ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC



My December blend (issued back in September) was created using 1997-98 and other years showing the positions of the highs and lows at 500mB (steering current level).  The winter 2015-16 southern jet stream position was positioned further south than above.  I believed the southern jet would be a driver early on...


Our snowfall for northern Ohio took this "panhandle storm track" into consideration by calling for snowfall slightly below normal (65") but higher than the strong El Ninos of 1982-83 (38") and 1997-98 (56").  We figured it would take one or two bigger snows to bring this total to reality.



HOWEVER, the southern jet was nullified by the east coast ridge in December.  It stayed well south until January.  Even then, panhandle snow systems stayed close to the east coast and the mid Atlantic.

300mB Zonal Wind
The Pacific northwest received above normal rainfall in December from storm systems that rode over the northern Pacific high pressure cell north of Hawaii. Gulf moisture fed above normal precipitation in the cornbelt.

By January, the southern jet was established but was deflected south by the west coast ridge (high pressure). Above normal precipitation was confined to northern California, Mexico and the deep south. Notice the BELOW NORMAL precipitation over the Ohio Valley. February precipitation was not much better.  The one exception was the historic snow that hit the Mid-Atlantic in late January (see below).



We forget how close the heavy snow came to northern Ohio in Late January.

Snow Forecast for January 22-24
The storm track kept the snow south through Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland and parts of New England.


As for the winter temperatures, temperatures were in-line with our forecast for the northern states. In the deep south, they were warmer than forecast.

A far cry from last winter (2014-15)...

...yet very similar to the winter of 2011-12 (MORE ON THIS COMPARISON FOR NORTHERN OHIO IN PART 2)


Much of the Great Lakes had well below normal snowfall. Portions of New England it was the opposite.




Seasonal Snowfall
How did this winter compare more specifically to last winter and 2011-12 (recently the most similar winter) in northern Ohio?  Head to PART II for the details >>>









Sunday, April 17, 2016

Lake Erie Water Temp vs 1998


The water temperature is still at dangerously cold levels. The lake water temperature lags behind the land temperatures a good 60-80 days in spring. Daytime temperatures in the suburbs can reach mid 60s or 70s yet the lake will stay very cold.  Water temperatures usually don't rise into the 60s until early June. Please, be very careful around the lake over the next two months.

We just came off of a big El Nino winter.  Milder temperatures with below normal snowfall. (we can very close to getting dumped on several times with large snowfalls. Those storms headed into New England). Will the lake water temperatures mirror the spring/summer of 1998, the end of the last big El Nino winter?

This graph show the water temperature in mid April as of this writing on the left.  The right box shows all of the Great Lakes during 1998 (after the last major El Nino).



The water temperature is already slightly above the 25 year average and in line with the April 1998 levels. Assuming we don't have significant runoff from heavy rainfall this spring through mid June along with average to slightly above normal temperatures, water temperatures should stay slightly above normal this summer if your heading to Edgewater or Cedar Point!

Here are the Lake Erie water temperatures in spring of 1998 with 30 year average in parentheses:

May 1:    52  (47)
May 15:  54  (52)
June 1:    64  (57)
June 15:  67  (62)
July 1:     71  (68)
July 15:   77  (72)(
July 21-23:  79 (Highest)  (73 on the 22nd)
August 1:    77  (74)
August 15:   77  (74)
September 1:   77  (73)
September 15:   73 (71)
September 30:   71  (67)

Saturday, April 09, 2016

Estimated Snowfall From NWS Observers - 9AM 4/9/2016


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1111 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2016

THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOWFALL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12/24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CLEVELAND

**********************12 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION              12 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...ASHLAND COUNTY...
   ASHLAND                5.5   720 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...ASHTABULA COUNTY...
   PIERPONT 2SE          10.2   724 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   JEFFERSON              9.0   516 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   ORWELL 1E              4.2   814 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   ASHTABULA              2.5   500 AM  4/09  TRAINED SPOTTER

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
   NEW WASHINGTON 5S      1.8   813 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   GALION                 1.5   756 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...CUYAHOGA COUNTY...
   EUCLID                 6.0   807 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   SHAKER HTS             6.0   900 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CLEVELAND-W SIDE       6.0   755 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   BROADVIEW HTS          5.0   939 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   SOLON                  5.0   914 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   NORTH ROYALTON         4.8   925 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CLEVELAND-OLD BROOKL   4.5   738 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   GARFIELD HTS           4.3   713 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...
   SANDUSKY               3.8   719 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   HURON                  3.0   940 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...GEAUGA COUNTY...
   MONTVILLE              7.5   730 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CHARDON 2N             6.5   713 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CHARDON                5.2   743 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CLARIDON TWP           5.0   841 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   BURTON                 5.0   800 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...HANCOCK COUNTY...
   ARLINGTON              1.0   830 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...HURON COUNTY...
   NEW LONDON 3NW         6.9   600 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...LAKE COUNTY...
   PAINESVILLE           10.0   911 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   MENTOR                 7.5   713 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   PERRY TOWNSHIP         6.0  1057 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   WILLOUGHBY             5.3   700 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...LORAIN COUNTY...
   N RIDGEVILLE           5.0   800 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   ELYRIA                 4.9   807 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   SHEFFIELD LAKE         4.5   745 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   LORAIN 3S              4.4   854 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   KIPTON                 2.0   658 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...MAHONING COUNTY...
   AUSTINTOWN             1.3   719 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...MEDINA COUNTY...
   BRUNSWICK              3.8   700 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   HINCKLEY               3.5   746 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   LODI                   2.0   711 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...PORTAGE COUNTY...
   HIRAM                  4.8   801 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   KENT                   3.2   757 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   DIAMOND                3.0   756 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...RICHLAND COUNTY...
   MANSFIELD 7NE          2.5   915 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   MANSFIELD/ONTARIO      0.9   745 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...SANDUSKY COUNTY...
   FREMONT                8.0   700 AM  4/09  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
   CLYDE                  7.0   753 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...SENECA COUNTY...
   TIFFIN                 4.0   700 AM  4/09  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

...STARK COUNTY...
   WAYNESBURG             3.2   930 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   EAST CANTON            3.0   800 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   4 NW MASSILLON         2.0   744 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   ALLIANCE               2.0   658 AM  4/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MASSILLON/PERRY TWP    1.5   906 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...SUMMIT COUNTY...
   STOW                   4.0   903 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   AKRON W SIDE           3.8   624 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   SAGAMORE HILLS         3.7   831 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   TWINSBURG              3.5   849 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CUYAHOGA FALLS         2.2   816 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   TALLMADGE              2.1   742 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   GREENE                 2.0   658 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   CLINTON                1.0   610 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...TRUMBULL COUNTY...
   NEWTON FALLS           5.2   723 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   WARREN                 3.5   650 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   YOUNGSTOWN-WARREN RE   3.0   751 AM  4/09  ASOS

...WAYNE COUNTY...
   DOYLESTOWN             3.0  1038 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   DALTON                 3.0   959 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   KIDRON 1N              1.8   903 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...WOOD COUNTY...
   PERRYSBURG             8.0   759 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   6 SE TOLEDO            6.0   700 AM  4/09  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

PENNSYLVANIA

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
   MEADVILLE 5W           6.0   915 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...
   AMITY TWP              3.7   740 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   2 NW EDINBORO          2.5   635 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   MILLCREEK TWP          1.2   800 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   FAIRVIEW               1.2   921 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER
   NORTHEAST 6SW          0.5   717 AM  4/09  SNOW SPOTTER


**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION              24 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...ASHLAND COUNTY...
   1 NNE SULLIVAN         4.2   700 AM  4/09  COCORAHS

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
   1 W GALION             1.5   700 AM  4/09  COCORAHS
   1 NW BUCYRUS           0.5   615 AM  4/09  COCORAHS

...CUYAHOGA COUNTY...
   1 SSW WESTLAKE         5.0   800 AM  4/09  COCORAHS
   2 NNW PARMA            4.0   800 AM  4/09  COCORAHS
   CLEVELAND; OH          3.0   751 AM  4/09  ASOS
   2 SE PARMA             2.4  1159 PM  4/08  COCORAHS
   2 SE BRECKSVILLE       2.0   700 AM  4/09  COCORAHS

Tuesday, April 05, 2016

How Historic Is This April Cold? April Snow?

There is little sign that this cold April will end anytime soon.  The cold air this weekend will be similar to last weekend. In fact, the 850mB (5000 ft) temps over Lake Erie, the key component for determining lake effect snow amounts, might crack the top 5 coldest ever for the month of April since 1950!   Here is the list per the NWS

 Both the GFS and the European show pretty much the same amount of cold as of this writing.

The pattern shows some signs of moderation across the eastern US but not until at least the midway point of the month. Another wave of colder air will follow this weekend's cold by the middle of next week.


The lack of snowfall this winter is almost historic. So far, our season snow total is the lowest since the winter of 1931-32.



April snowfall of at least one inch happens roughly 50% of the time. Here is a look at the percentage of seasonal snowfall in April.  This past weekend's snowfall brings this year's percentage up to 5%. Expect snow chances to climb with each burst of colder air through the middle of the month.