Sunday Storm Update - Thursday morning, Dec 9th

 Sunday's storm appears to take a northerly track--at the time of this writing, Thursday morning.  If this track is accurate, we get a rain/snow mix and less accumulating snow

 

I can guarantee super-arctic air Monday and Tuesday with big lake effect snow!

 

HUGE East Coast Snowstorm this weekend!

Snow totals as of Tuesday at 10:30AM from the National Weather Service in Cleveland. This covers 2 days of lake effect snow. Click on image below for larger look.

A major east coast snowstorm seems to be developing Sunday into Monday this weekend.  As temperatures warm into the mid 30s Saturday, the snow will be a heavier, wet snow compared to the fluffy, lake effect snow of the last several days. Get ready for ANOTHER ROUND of LAKE EFFECT MONDAY NEXT WEEK!

First of Many Arctic Cold Intrusions...Lake Effect Snow

The first lake effect snow event is here and its staying over Northeastern Ohio until early Wednesday.

Here is a photo my mom took in Hudson early Monday morning.

Winds out of the northwest is pulling moisture from Lake Erie, Lake Huron AND Lake Michigan producing widespread lake effect snow across Cleveland and northern Ohio.

Lake effect snow warnings for MEDINA, CUYAHOGA, SUMMIT, PORTAGE AND THE ENTIRE SNOWBELT until late Tuesday.

As we talked about in a previous post, cold air like this will be very common in December.  Here are the forecast temperatures for Tuesday and next Monday.  Notice it gets COLDER next week. EXPECT THIS COLD AIR TO CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

Last Look at Hurricane Season...-40 in Alaska!

A taste of what is coming for the eastern half of the US and northern Ohio later this winter, especially in January and February...

NASA has just found the first -40 degree temperature of the season yesterday over interior Alaska. This satellite (The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) is a radiation-detection imager that can be used for remotely determining cloud cover and surface temperatures by collecting different bands of radiation wavelengths.The coldest regions are shown with the purple/pink areas on this image.  Note: The image is not oriented from north to south.

Just a few random items I recently read about hurricane season courtesy of NOAA and NASA.  Read ahead and check out the images below showing the rainfall from the 2010 season compared to the record setting 2005 season:

The year 2010 was accurately predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be an active one with 14-23 tropical cyclones and 8-14 hurricanes predicted. NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Fla. subsequently named 19 storms with 12 reaching hurricane strength.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active since the record breaking season of 2005. Hal Pierce of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, or TRMM satellite team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. created a comparison between the tropical cyclone rainfall occurring in 2005 and 2010. These tropical cyclone rainfall analyses were both made at NASA Goddard using TRMM-based, near-real time Multi-satellite Precipitation data (TMPA).TRMM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency JAXA.

The rainfall stayed offshore in two areas this year.

 In 2005, the rainfall was centered over the Gulf of Mexico, Cuba and Florida

Cold Period Upcoming...Get Ready!

We are living on borrowed on "weather time" so to speak.  Temps have trended above normal in Cleveland for most of November.  Now, the pattern is about to make an abrupt change.  This change will more than likely entrench itself through the first two weeks of December.

What do we look at when trying to find these changes from a warm pattern to a cold one?

The first indicators are from way up north in Canada, the North Pole and Russia.  As the highs and lows travel around the earth, they often get into a pattern.  Recently, the highs have been present over the eastern US.  Over the next several weeks, the highs are shifting to the west and the lows (troughs or fronts) are replacing it.  The center low is over northern Canada.  This "Canadian Low" acts as the "center of the wagon wheel" swinging down "Alberta Clippers" with widespread small snowfalls.  See the graphic below.

 

The "warmer" pattern has held off the formation of ice over Hudson Bay

As the pattern changes, the front will be deeper and stronger with lots of cloud cover.

Here are the temperature trends for early this week and into the weekend for the US and Canada.  Notice the "32 degree" marker well north of Ohio in the first graphic then well south in the second.  Much colder for sure!

The bottom line is colder than normal air will stay around through the weekend and into most of next week.  When the snow flies, it will probably accumulate and stay on the ground for a while across most of Northeastern Ohio.

Winter is coming!

My List of 100 Movies Watched This Year

For the second year in a row, I have eclipsed 100 movies...with a month to go.  Here is the list in no particular order. Movies in BOLD PRINT are my favorites. Click here for LAST YEAR'S LIST

The Insider
Deadman
Ed Wood
Brazil
Jacobs Ladder
Sherlock Holmes
Up in the Air
Public Enemies
Quiz Show
The Informant!

Inglorious Basterds
Moon
The Hurt Locker
Heist
Network
A Serious Man
The Conversation
The Lovely Bones
Ground Hog Day
An Education

The Verdict
Crazyheart
The Blind Side
Zodiac
Man on Wire
Invictus
Mulholland Drive
Silent Running
Cloverfield
The Road

Following
Traffic
Trainspotting
Ironman 2
Wartapes
Taxi to the Darkside
Serenity
Precious
Trinity and Beyond
The Mosquito Coast

Downfall
The Messenger
Donnie Brasco
The Godfather
Solaris
Casino
The War Room
RUSH: Beyond the Lighted Stage
The Watchmen
America: The Story of Us (Ep. 1-3)

America: The Story of Us (Ep. 4-6)
Fargo
Grizzly Man
The Usual suspects
Boiler Room
The A-Team
The Butterfly Effect
Good Night, Good Luck
Hot Tub Time Machine
Fight Club

Kiss Kiss Bang Bang
The Cruise
Moon 44
Echelon Conspiracy
11:14
Puzzlehead
Collapse
Rabbit Proof Fence
I am Legend
Fail-Safe

Flight 93
The Machinist
Dune
Shooter
Videodrome
Darkened Room
Shattered Glass
Touching the Void
Control Room
Windtalkers

Owl - Legend of the Guardians
The Mist
The Peacemaker
The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy
Shutter Island
Babylon A.D.
The Killing Fields
Manhunter
The Score
Ken Burns: 10th Inning

Wordplay
Oldboy
The Expendables
Barton Fink
3:10 to Yuma
Capricorn One
Three Days of the Condor
The Social Network
The American
2009: Lost Memories

Cold Air and Snow for Thanksgiving Weekend?

We all knew it was coming.  Temperatures have been way too warm for way too long.  This happens in November every year it seems.  We are teased into thinking that winter won't happen or that it'll be delayed for some extraordinary amount of time, maybe until January.  In reality, it never works out that way.

At this time last year, temps were somewhat warm.  This map below is a birds-eye view over the North Pole looking at the surface temperatures.  Northeastern Ohio is on the far left as we look south (to the right). Notice as the temperatures were warmer here in Cleveland, the cold air was building over the north pole.

By Thanksgiving and into the first week of December, pieces of this arctic air began to break off and seep south into Asia and Canada.

By the middle of December, arctic air was pushing into the northern half of the US.

This upcoming week--like a trip to the dentist--will be the wake up call we all knew was coming.  Just like last year, cold air is building over the north pole and Siberia.  All it will take is a strong cold front to extract that cold air sliding into the eastern US and northeastern Ohio.  Here is how I think it will shake down.


Late this weekend into Monday, temperatures will start to climb quiet a bit.  Notice the cold air starting to push south at the top of the following map. (Maps courtesy:  Intellicast.com)

A strong cold will push east late Tuesday into Wednesday producing some rain and gusty winds.

Today (Friday), cold air is slidding over Hudson Bay and is visible with the lake clouds its created on this visible satellite loop (Click image for the animation).

By Thanksgiving, temps will start to fall somewhat...cold enough for some wet snow late.

By Friday and Saturday, the air gets cold enough for Lake Effect snow with a series of Alberta Clippers thrown in for good measure.

The bottom line:  Late next week and into the first half of the Thanksgiving Weekend, many spots around Northeastern Ohio will have a good amount of snow on the ground.  Expect flight delays and slick road Friday and Saturday.

How Often Do We See Little Snow in November & December?

The first two weeks of November were about as atypical a November as it gets here in Cleveland. Nine consecutive days with more than 90% sunshine with average temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s.  A stretch like this makes the first shot of winter weather that's coming that much harder to take.

Instead of thinking about heavy snow, how about focusing on small amounts of snow for this time of year.  Is it that unusual to have a November and December without much snow?

The chart below shows that 59 of the 111 Novembers since 1901 have had less than 5 inches of snow in northeastern Ohio. While December has only 20 of 111 Decembers since 1901 with less than 5 inches of snow.

So don't think of this November without abundant snow as something unique. If under 5 inches of snow falls in December then make a special note of it because it doesn't happen that often.

November Temps at a Glance-THANKSGIVING FORECAST

In a previous post, we discussed how NOVEMBER features large ups and down in temperature. Its not out of the question for a random 70 degree day to surface this month.

Through the first 12 days (Friday), how have the high temperatures faired compared to last Novomber (2009)?

The chart below shows the high temperatures for both Novembers.  The red bat graph is 2009 temps, the green, 2010.



...pretty consistent comparing the two years.  How about the rest of the month?  Does this mean warmer temps heading into Thanksgiving?  HARDLY!

I always remember what happened back in 2005 in November and December.  November was very warm:  AVERAGE HIGH OF 53 DEGREES!

Yet note how the temperatures went up and down throughout the month in the chart below for NOVEMBER 2005:



Very scary! This shows that the winds aloft were changing...no consistency in the high temperatures.

The weatther trended COLDER real fast...December ended up with 20+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FIRST 2 WEEKS!

So stay tuned on the Thanskgiving Forecast.  I have a feeling its going to get colder very fast!

LARGEST Indonesian Volcano - ERUPTS THIS MORNING

From the Associated Press:



MOUNT MERAPI, Indonesia — Searing gas avalanched down an Indonesian volcano with a thunderous roar, torching houses and trees and incinerating villagers as they fled Mount Merapi's worst eruption in a century. Scores of bodies found Friday raised the death toll to 122.

The injured - with clothes, blankets and even mattresses fused to their skin by the 1,400 degree Fahrenheit (750 degree Celsius) heat - were carried away on stretchers following the first big explosion just before midnight.

All Friday, Merapi shot towering plumes of ash that dusted the windshields of cars 300 miles (480 kilometers) away. Bursts of hot clouds occasionally interrupted aid efforts, with rescuers screaming "Watch out! Hot cloud!"

The intensifying eruptions have baffled scientists who have monitored the mountain for years and left them uncertain what to expect. Dozens of explosions that followed Merapi's initial blast Oct. 26 had been predicted to ease pressure behind a magma dome.

The danger zone where residents have been ordered to flee has now been expanded to 12 miles (20 kilometers) from the crater.

Friday's explosion - said by volcanologists to be the biggest since the 1870s - hit hardest in Bronggang, a village nine miles (15 kilometers) from the crater. Soldiers joined the rescue operations, pulling at least 78 bodies from homes and streets blanketed by ash up to one foot (30 centimeters) deep.

 "We're totally overwhelmed here!" said Heru Nogroho, a spokesman at Sardjito.

In terms of the amount of volcanic material released - 1,765 million cubic feet (50 million cubic meter), "it was the biggest in at least a century," Gede Swantika, a state volcanologist, said as plumes of smoke continued to shoot up more than 30,000 feet (10,000 meters).