Tuesday, December 25, 2012

SNOW STORM/BLIZARD UPDATE: CHRISTMAS EVENING


For the most part, not much has changed since yesterday. The track of the "panhandle low/delta low combo" is still northeast just south of Ohio. This storm Wednesday will put northern Ohio in the "colder, snowier zone". United Airlines has already cancelled 60% of flights IN AND OUT of Hopkins Airport here in Cleveland. 
BLIZZARD WARNINGS (wind speeds at 35 mph or greater with 1/4 mile visibility or lower for 3+ hours) have been issued for the counties shaded in red. I remind everyone that local blizzards don't stop on county lines. So even though many counties are not under blizzard warnings, a local blizzard is possible at anytime Wednesday and Wednesday night.

On Saturday, I posted these initial projections CLICK HERE FOR MY POST

I mentioned this in yesterday's post: I never want to bite too fast with southern storm system because the amount of milder air that's pulled north can easily transfer snow to sleet or freezing rain greatly reducing the snow numbers. The latest numbers show the air will be too cold for any changeover but the RAP (Rapid Refresh Model) shows surface temperatures at 11AM (the time when the snow begins) to be slightly below freezing. Yet look at the pocket of milder air in Kentucky/West Virginia...I remember forecasting 15-20" of snow in one situation years ago. At the last minute, milder air pushed north. Heavy snow never materialized. The amounts ended up being closer to 5-8". A decent amount of snow for sure but it wasn't even close to the initial 15"+. In tomorrow's situation, the wind will be out of the NORTHEAST which isn't conducive for pulling milder air into Ohio. Still something to watch even if the chances are small
RAP Model: Courtesy Weatherbell Analytics


Here are my snowfall projections which I used yesterday and again this evening. A general 6-12 INCHES! Remember, THIS IS NOT LAKE EFFECT! Because the snow will be blowing with NORTHEAST WINDS AT 30-35 MPH, these amounts will vary GREATLY!


The question with this storm isn't whether or not we will see significant snow--all models are pointing in this direction--its a question of THE RATE AT WHICH THE SNOW FALLS!



Look at the higher resolution projection for snowfall for early Wednesday. Note the scale on the right. Much of the accumulating snow is in Indiana.







Now watch the speed at which the snow accumulates from 10AM to 4PM...The snowfall rate is incredible! Its painting 10"+ in parts of Northern Ohio in less than 6 hours! If this verifies, we are looking at whiteout conditions and extremely hazardous travel conditions!






3 comments:

Julie said...

Thanks for keeping us informed without over-hyping! Hope you and your family had a very Merry Christmas.

Julie said...

Thanks for keeping us informed without over-hyping. I enjoy always enjoy your blog and fanpage. Hope you and your family had a very Merry Christmas!

Terrie Pongrass said...

Scott, Thanks for the updates!

Living in COnneaut so close to the lake keeps us guessing but this seems pretty clear to me.

T-